A8o in BB HU vs UTG

[brassnuts]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Haven't seen UTG get too much out of line.

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.40 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero???

[Alobar]

any hand that beats you I figure would have raised PF, so hes either got A7 A8, or Adonk, or hes slowplayed PF or just doesnt raise big hands preflop. I doubt he has 77 given the flop action.

Honestly, the only thing I worry about is him wussing out and checking behind on the river with AT or something, but I dont want to cap AND get raised on the river. So I prolly pull out the nifty stop and go. If he raises me on the river again, so be it. Its the same amount of dough as if I cap and he just calls my river bet, and it saves me a bet if I cap and he raises me on the river. It costs one more than if I just call down, but I like my hand enough for that.

[rory]

cap and lead the river. if you get raised on the river then just call that one.

[brassnuts]

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Haven't seen UTG get too much out of line.

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I wrote this in a rush. Villain has been passive, both pre and post flop.

In other words, there's no way he's playing one pair like this.

[rory]

well then his set of 8s beats your two pair so you just call on the turn and call the river.

[Alobar]

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well then his set of 8s beats your two pair so you just call on the turn and call the river.

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[brassnuts]

I was thinking 88 as well. I actually had a very strong read on the villain and folding the turn crossed my mind. I was 90% sure I was drawing to 2 outs. We were all wrong. I called down and villain shows KK. I know its impossible to quantitate this kind of stuff, but how sure do you have to be to fold this turn?

[Alobar]

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I was thinking 88 as well. I actually had a very strong read on the villain and folding the turn crossed my mind. I was 90% sure I was drawing to 2 outs. We were all wrong. I called down and villain shows KK. I know its impossible to quantitate this kind of stuff, but how sure do you have to be to fold this turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I never fold this turn....ever

[arkady]

No way does he have one pair, but K8s, A7 is possible. I would chicken out personally and call down.

[Sandstone]

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I know its impossible to quantitate this kind of stuff, but how sure do you have to be to fold this turn?

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You don't. You look for better spots to "save bets" that don't involve mucking a strong top two-pair on a relatively harmless board.

[mperich]

He has to flash a hand that beats you. =P

-Mike

[brassnuts]

Yeah.... I've been thinking about this a little bit. There's no way I could fold this on the turn and continue to play poker (for money at least). But, at the risk of sounding like Cinammon Wind/Matador/whatever other name that dude/chick used, you have to admit, there are certain opponents where you can be pretty much assured that you're drawing to 2 outs here on the turn. Anyways, thanks for the reassurance of my play.

[ALL1N]

I was a bit hard the first time, hence the edit.

[ QUOTE ]
So I prolly pull out the nifty stop and go. If he raises me on the river again, so be it. Its the same amount of dough as if I cap and he just calls my river bet, and it saves me a bet if I cap and he raises me on the river. It costs one more than if I just call down, but I like my hand enough for that.

[/ QUOTE ]

A stop and go is really the worst of both worlds: it gives a better hand another opportunity to raise again, without forcing 2 more bets for a showdown.

[krishanleong]

Caps, leads the river, calls a raise.

Just read the read. Calling down seems fine if he is very passive.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

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I know its impossible to quantitate this kind of stuff, but how sure do you have to be to fold this turn?

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You don't. You look for better spots to "save bets" that don't involve mucking a strong top two-pair on a relatively harmless board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good advice. Work on other parts of your game before this one.

Krishan

[Alobar]

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I was a bit hard the first time, hence the edit.

[ QUOTE ]
So I prolly pull out the nifty stop and go. If he raises me on the river again, so be it. Its the same amount of dough as if I cap and he just calls my river bet, and it saves me a bet if I cap and he raises me on the river. It costs one more than if I just call down, but I like my hand enough for that.

[/ QUOTE ]

A stop and go is really the worst of both worlds: it gives a better hand another opportunity to raise again, without forcing 2 more bets for a showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its the best of both words, Alot of players will check behind hands you beat on the river, but if you cap and lead, you're effed when he raises, but you still have to call. Like I said, I like my hand enough to get raised on the river, but not enough to cap AND get raised on the river, and I worry if I just call the 3 bet he checks behind on the river

[Kasumeat]

Easy turn call, river checkraise/call for style.

[Rubeskies]

What does everyone think about a preflop raise here?

[MAxx]

I dont really know what to make of your read:

[ QUOTE ]
Haven't seen UTG get too much out of line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Edit: I see you improved your read later... I may tend to lean more to call down on turn.


Homeboy limped under the gun. What is your take on that? Either he is out of line, he is up to something tricky, or he is a wussy with a medium PP (IMO Generally speaking).

What kind of hands would you expect him to do that with:

For example is he loose passive preflop and may be limping under the gun like a donk with K-8. Or is he a little tight pf and may limp with 88 utg. Or is he that type with a real low pfr % that only raises with AA and KK. Or have you been at a real aggressive pf table where a semi-skilled or skilled player may decide the time is rite for a limp reraise with AA, KK, or AK.

Unless I have a better read, I am probably capping turn and leading river a decent amount of the time. Sure many times I am more conservative and calldown. However, I am not considering a fold against any player I have played against up to this point in time (given how the hand developed).

[ALL1N]

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I think its the best of both words, Alot of players will check behind hands you beat on the river, but if you cap and lead, you're effed when he raises, but you still have to call. Like I said, I like my hand enough to get raised on the river, but not enough to cap AND get raised on the river, and I worry if I just call the 3 bet he checks behind on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not really a matter of if your hand is worth 2 more bets but not 3 or such and such. It's a probability thing:

You've got to be winning &gt;50% to bet the river, assuming your opponent bets/raises when ahead and checks/calls when behind.

Not so coincidentally, you've got to be winning &gt;50% to cap the turn. Thus, the two go hand in hand. There is one ramification:

Opponents will not always play this "perfectly." They will sometimes continue betting when behind, and sometimes slow down when ahead. And far and away the biggest "mistake" they'll make is continuing betting a worse hand after having the lead on the turn. This makes betting the river require an even greater winning proportion, especially after just calling the turn, as a river check call starts to look good.

So to not cap the turn but bet the river is really just confusing your value of your own hand. Do both, or do neither.

Richie

[ALL1N]

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What does everyone think about a preflop raise here?

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It defines your hand against someone you're probably only a marginal favourite against, out of position. Dislike.

[cjx]

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It defines your hand against someone you're probably only a marginal favourite against, out of position. Dislike.

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Against a passive opponent I'd do it every time. You punish him when you hit, you get fold equity, and you can often check and he'll check behind. A8o is pretty good heads up even out of position.

cjx

[Grisgra]

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well then his set of 8s beats your two pair so you just call on the turn and call the river.

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Apparently great minds think alike . . . I'd have played it the same way, but after the turn 3-bet this really smells like a limped 88 in EP.

Turns out we were wrong, but not by that much.

[Grisgra]

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It defines your hand against someone you're probably only a marginal favourite against, out of position. Dislike.

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Against a passive opponent I'd do it every time. You punish him when you hit, you get fold equity, and you can often check and he'll check behind. A8o is pretty good heads up even out of position.

cjx

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I vastly prefer fold equity when I don't actually have an ace in my hand -- I don't think I raise from the BB here. With K8, maybe (against a CO limper -- not against an UTG limper who I'd probably trust to have a little more).

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah.... I've been thinking about this a little bit. There's no way I could fold this on the turn and continue to play poker (for money at least). But, at the risk of sounding like Cinammon Wind/Matador/whatever other name that dude/chick used, you have to admit, there are certain opponents where you can be pretty much assured that you're drawing to 2 outs here on the turn. Anyways, thanks for the reassurance of my play.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're absolutely right, and there are definitely times that your read will be so strong that against some opponents you'll fold something like a weak two pair without feeling bad about it or second guessing yourself.

I think the chance that you're up against A8 or K8 is enough to call down, but to be utterly honest, this would not have been the most horrible laydown in the world. The people telling you to cap 2nd best two-pair against a passive UTG limper are just plain nuts.

[bunky9590]

smooth call and lead the river make a crying call if he raises.

[ALL1N]

Oh, you too. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Please read my above posts.

[Alobar]

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[

You've got to be winning &gt;50% to bet the river, assuming your opponent bets/raises when ahead and checks/calls when behind.

Not so coincidentally, you've got to be winning &gt;50% to cap the turn. Thus, the two go hand in hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your forgetting the very important factor of position, he has it, you don't. this changes things

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So to not cap the turn but bet the river is really just confusing your value of your own hand. Do both, or do neither.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, I think this is wrong, for the reasons ive already stated elsewhere in this thread.

guess we'll just have to agree to disagree, heh

[ALL1N]

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You've got to be winning &gt;50% to bet the river, assuming your opponent bets/raises when ahead and checks/calls when behind.

Not so coincidentally, you've got to be winning &gt;50% to cap the turn. Thus, the two go hand in hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your forgetting the very important factor of position, he has it, you don't. this changes things

[/ QUOTE ]

No I'm not. Please tell me what you think I've forgotten/screwed up. 50% is right for the river bet and the turn cap.

[kiddo]

Maybe I read other poster to fast, but isnt the problem that u dont cap flop? U are out of position, this is no time to go for cr on turn with 2 pair. You want him to stay in with his pair all way. Cap flop and bet turn and call down if raised if he is somewhat passive because he will be pretty impressed by u capping flop so u are probably behind.

Also, raise preflop, passive guys get impressed by that and if he isnt slowplaying he got something like 87s or 44 preflop.

If he was really aggressive I could understand calling 3bet on flop and going for cr. But against this guy, it got to be wrong.