Reasonable expectation

I have recently started playing in a twice a week pot-limit holdem game. Assuming that on a scale of 1-10 my skill level is 7 and the rest of the players range from 3-7 with the average about 5 playing a loose-passive style, how many BB's per hour might it be reasonable to expect for me to win? The blinds are 1 and 2$, the rake is only 1$ per round (you pay 1$ when on the button) and the number of players averages around 7 or so (usually starts as a full table and then goes lower as players leave).

I realize that it's not possible to give an exact answer but any/all thoughts are appreciated. The reason I ask is that I have only played around 100 hours and have been winning much more that I think is reasonable and am wondering how big a fall I should be bracing myself for?

[TAFKAn]

Since you are even asking this question, I'm assuming that you are fairly new to pot limit.

In all seriousness, prepare to go broke. You can expect to lose all the money you've won already and then all the rest of your bankroll. In fact, even the best players can go on a streak that will wipe out their bankrolls.

If you really are a 7 vs. a field of 5s, your edge is very slight. The smaller your edge the higher your variance which means the longer and bigger your losing streaks will be. (and winning streaks too).

Basically, I think you should prepare for a wild ride.

you speak truth. he thinks
he is seven, when even
eight is not enough

the almighty

Hmm. Interesting. You're right, I'm relatively new to pot limit although I have played a fair bit of table stakes (no limit) before, just not much in the last few years. That's exactly why I asked the question, I have read here people talking about winning 1-2 BB's per hour in limit but have no idea what might be reasonable in pot limit.

I suppose you're right in that I should expect a wild ride but I don't see why I should expect to lose in the long run if I'm the best player there and the rake is so small. Of course stranger things have happened, I'll just have to wait and see.

Thanks for your thoughts!

[TAFKAn]

To clarify, I did not say that you should expect to lose in the long run. If you're the best player, you should absolutely expect to win in the long run.

I said you can expect to lose back all the money you've won so far and probably even the rest of your bank roll (unless you have a very large bankroll). You should fully expect to go broke. The ups and downs of pot limit are so big that whatever you've won in the 100 hours can be wiped out fairly quickly.

That's the nature of pot limit. The world's best players have all gone broke at one time playing this game. I was not trying to say you should expect to lose long term.

OK fair enough. But I still have no idea of what might be reasonable in the long run and I'm still really curious.

Maybe I should phrase the question another way:

Let's say you're the best player in a limit game and averaging 2BB's per hour. Let's say that the same game chagnes to pot limit and you're still the best player and everyone's relative strength stays the same.

How many BBs per hour would you expect to win?

truth is elusive
your verse is amusing but
not very helpful

Thanks anyway

[Big Dave D]

I think ure getting some bum advice here. There is no reason to expect to go broke...there isnt really any reason to expect massive swings either. The best thing to do is to just keep good records. This will prove everything you need to know. I have been playing PL for over 6 years and have never had a losing year, except for a small minus in a year I didnt play particularily often in. The main thing for a beginner is to have a good idea of hand values and to play a tight aggressive game. Buy some good big bet books, and as only the Ciafone ones are worth reading this isnt a big investment. Then only play in games where the players are worse than you. Its that simple. As to the BB/hr thing, IMHO anywhere from 10-20 is a good winning rate (this is for Omaha type games only as these are most prevalent in the UK>)

GL

Thanks Dave. 10-20 is roughly what I was guessing would be reasonable. Time will tell. And I agree about Ciaffone, I've read about 6 books in the last 6 months and by far the best are Ciaffones books and Sklanskys tourney book.

[Big Dave D]

Maniakk, check out the reuben and ciaffone one if u havent already got it...along with the PLO one by CIaffone, uve got the 2 best u could possibly hope 4.

dd

As a matter of fact I took delivery of Reuben/Ciaffone last week, I already have Improve Your Poker by Ciaffone and we play no O here except for a small tourney every other Friday and NOBODY understands O where I play (though I might get the O book anyway just for curiosity plus I like reading Ciaffones books).

Thanks again for you response, You're the only person who gave me some actual numbers and they do sound reasonable. I am keeping accurate records and eventually I will find out for myself.
Cheers!