flopped the nuts, how many bets?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

here's a hand.

live 6/12

bad player openraises, folded to me and i call in the bb with J /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, HU.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet. He raises. I 3-bet. He 4-bets. I 5-bet. He 6-bets. I 7-bet. He 8-bets... I n bet. He n+1 bets, I...

At what point do I worry about getting frerolled on? Or should I just like never stop?

[sthief09]

describe bad player. no one can really tell but you. it's just at the point where you are probably like 90% certain he has JT

[PokerBob]

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At what point do I worry about getting frerolled on? Or should I just like never stop?

[/ QUOTE ]

15 bets

[sthief09]

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[ QUOTE ]
At what point do I worry about getting frerolled on? Or should I just like never stop?

[/ QUOTE ]

15 bets

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there comes a point where you're just getting the worst of it. it's way before 15 bets. J/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif, JT with one club are all freerolling

[Chris Dow]

eh, he's bad, I'd stop after around 10 bets in for each of us. See if he'll resume on a non club non pair turn for 10 big bets. From the flop a jt with just one club is hurting you with the backdoor possibility. I think with a bad player you don't need to go all the way. I don't think its the end of the world if this hand stops without you getting every last dollar of his money since he is bad and will keep giving it away. I think it's pretty dumb to let a bad player freeroll against you. (I dunno if he's so bad that he would just get up and run after freerolling and hitting to 2x his cash on table but if he is that sort of bad hit and run prone dude you lose out in multiple ways by letting him freeroll)

Final Note: Live you can watch as the guy raises you for the nth time. I assume you can interpret a hell of a lot from his demeanor. People aren't entirely stupid and even with top set will start looking pretty damn uncomfortable after about the 8th raise... I would be measuring his comfort level around that time.

[masonx]

you should use slight of hand to take 1 bet out each time he raises... /images/graemlins/wink.gif would give you a huge edge i think

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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At what point do I worry about getting frerolled on? Or should I just like never stop?

[/ QUOTE ]

15 bets

[/ QUOTE ]

I made that number up. Sorry. I thought it was obvious. My sense of humor is bizarre.


there comes a point where you're just getting the worst of it. it's way before 15 bets. J/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif, JT with one club are all freerolling

[/ QUOTE ]

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
here's a hand.

live 6/12

bad player openraises, folded to me and i call in the bb with J /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, HU.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet. He raises. I 3-bet. He 4-bets. I 5-bet. He 6-bets. I 7-bet. He 8-bets... I n bet. He n+1 bets, I...

At what point do I worry about getting frerolled on? Or should I just like never stop?

[/ QUOTE ]

This really comes down to CDC's definiton of bad.

IMO a freeroll is not the concern here, or at least not the major one. Just cuz he's bad doesn't mean he raises JT from EP. IMO a bad player is more likley to overplay postflop. I put him on KK or QQ. The question is, will he fill up.

Also, does it not make sense to slow down and then speed up again if a safe turn comes off when your edge is larger and the bets are bigger? I'm just spit-balling here.

[PokerProdigy]

This is funny because this SORT OF reminds me of the story from the book Super Systems (the first edition) where Chip Reese talks about how he was playing a bad player in seven card stud and they both went all in on a coin flip and Reese lost his whole bankroll, and then he said he learned a valuable lesson that day to NOT get in that situation with a bad player again because that same player was constantly putting himself in other situations with the worst of it.

The reason I said SORT OF is because this is NOT really a coin flip because you flopped the nuts. However, I still think that you should probably stop at a point where you still have a good chunk of your bankroll left because if you take a huge hit that puts you out of action it might have NOT been worth it since you are probably just a small favorite. For example, if you can afford to shove your whole stack out there and still be able to play the 6/12 game no problem then this may NOT be a bad idea.

The reason I say you are probably just a small favorite is that if you consider all of the hands he may play this way they all have tons of outs, plus two cards left (turn plus river) to catch them on. I think he either has the jack-ten of clubs (which would be devastating for you), a club draw and inside straight draw ( which will connect about 45% of the time), and he could have trips (which will turn into a full house or better 33% of the time).

Considering the likely that a player (even a bad one) would play all these hands in this way I say your about a 60% favorite, what to do about this edge is more of a personal decision.

[sfer]

You need to tell us how many chips are in front of both you and him.

[ESCaspian]

If he has KK and puts you on say QQ, then you can still get more bets out of him when a non club/heart blank falls. I vote for holding off after 4 or so raises on the flop and resume another few on the turn to charge him a premium to draw out. So JTc is clearly in his range of holdings

a pre flop raise w JTs is not uncommon in my (limited)experience, as it was once taught to be one of the best hands.

[MoreWineII]

Honestly, I'd rather spill my wad on the turn if a harmless card falls.

I'd probably go 3-4 raises on the flop. Hopefully enough to get to that magic point where I can extract the most bets from my opponent on that betting round while still keeping him convinced that I'm just overplaying KQ or some such tomfoolery.

[sthief09]

whoa, where the hell have you been

[MoreWineII]

I sat here for about 5 minutes thinking of an answer to that question. I don't really have one. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[gaming_mouse]

go all the way. it sounds like he's willing, and you are a mathematical favorite over any hand he might hold. i'd put him on KK, too, not JT. the only reason to stop would be if you thought that he might just call you and that you would subsequently be able to extract less on the turn. this does not appear to be the case.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
you are a mathematical favorite over any hand he might hold.

[/ QUOTE ]

JcTc...JcTd..JhTh

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you are a mathematical favorite over any hand he might hold.

[/ QUOTE ]

JcTc...JcTd..JhTh

[/ QUOTE ]

nice catch. given the way this played though, i think he's more likely to have KK.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
given the way this played though, i think he's more likely to have KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[applej25]

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a pre flop raise w JTs is not uncommon in my (limited)experience, as it was once taught to be one of the best hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

By who exactly???

[Carmine]

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given the way this played though, i think he's more likely to have KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you guys say KK is more likely than JT?

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
What makes you guys say KK is more likely than JT?

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically the preflop raise. Most players open raise KK. Many dont open raise JT.

We were both speaking (or, at least I was, and I *think* GM was as well) that KK is more likely than JT BEFORE the crazy flop action. I would say things hit the fan when he 6-bets.

I would say that is the point at which KK becomes less likely than JT. And the point at which freerolling becomes an issue.

[Luv2DriveTT]

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given the way this played though, i think he's more likely to have KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you guys say KK is more likely than JT?

[/ QUOTE ]

Carmine is right ya know. This hand was open raised by the villain, I know many live 6/12 players who would do that without hesitation with hands such as TJo. CDC doesn't say anything about the villain's position (late, early, UTG), therefore we cannot put him on a definiitive hand such as KK, being any more likely than a hand such as JTo.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
CDC doesn't say anything about the villain's position (late, early, UTG), therefore we cannot put him on a definiitive hand such as KK, being any more likely than a hand such as JTo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given just the preflop info, KK is absolutely more likely than JTo, and its not close.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
CDC doesn't say anything about the villain's position (late, early, UTG), therefore we cannot put him on a definiitive hand such as KK, being any more likely than a hand such as JTo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given just the preflop info, KK is absolutely more likely than JTo, and its not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

you read the part where he said he was a bad player right?

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
you read the part where he said he was a bad player right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

Bad can mean many things.

All I can gather from the word 'bad' is that OP feels he stands to show a significant long term profit off of this player.

There are players who raise far too many hands preflop that I would call bad. And many players who raise far too few hands preflop that I would call bad.

Its not like he said 'passive' or 'aggressive'.

Bad, in and of itself, doesnt necessarily relate to PFR %.

[Luv2DriveTT]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
CDC doesn't say anything about the villain's position (late, early, UTG), therefore we cannot put him on a definiitive hand such as KK, being any more likely than a hand such as JTo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given just the preflop info, KK is absolutely more likely than JTo, and its not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry mate, your off on this one. There is no overwhelming evidence it could be KK. Now if CDC tells us the villain is UTG, UTG +1, or even MP1 then I think your argument holds water. At this stage we do not know other than he open raised.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry mate, your off on this one. There is no overwhelming evidence it could be KK. Now if CDC tells us the villain is UTG, UTG +1, or even MP1 then I think your argument holds water. At this stage we do not know other than he open raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with most of this...

What is kind of ironic here, is that you are accusing me of making the error that you are making, while I am not.

Answer this question:

In a typical 6/12 live game, what percentage of open raises occur in each postion?

I mean, think about it: where are you more likely to open raise, UTG+1 or CO?

Despite the larger raising range in CO, the answer is UTG+1, because you are presented with the OPEN raising opportunity FAR more frequently in UTG+1 than CO.

I have a preflop raise of 9%, and open raise from the following positions with the frequency:

UTG: 6.56
UTG+1: 6.43
UTG+2: 4.63
MP1: 4.77
MP2: 4.44
MP3: 4.66
CO: 3.62
Button: 3.08

More open raises occur from non steal positions. Thus, KK is FAR and away more likely given all we know is he open raised.

I wouldnt think about open raising JT until MP3.

This means that about 70% of my open raises occur when I could have KK and I coud not have JT. The other 30% occur when I could have either.

If CDC stated it was a LP raise, then I would agree with you. Because we know nothing of the raisers position, we have to used weighed averages for the probabilty of an open raiser being in every position.

As I stated, KK is more likely for an open raise.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

uh, all this talk about KK vs JT is kind of out of the window once it goes n+1 bets, regardless of where the villian opened from. at SOME point you have to consider the flop action.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to tell us how many chips are in front of both you and him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chris has him totally covered and the guy probably has enough to go 10-15 more flop bets. Chris forgot to include that the guy was very loose and pretty passive. Chris has also played every single hand at the table and everyone thinks he's a total donk.

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You need to tell us how many chips are in front of both you and him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chris has him totally covered and the guy probably has enough to go 10-15 more flop bets. Chris forgot to include that the guy was very loose and pretty passive. Chris has also played every single hand at the table and everyone thinks he's a total donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

So they have him pegged? Had to...

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Chris has him totally covered and the guy probably has enough to go 10-15 more flop bets. Chris forgot to include that the guy was very loose and pretty passive. Chris has also played every single hand at the table and everyone thinks he's a total donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

5-6 BBs and he thinks Chris is a donk. Might as well push. And if the guy is freerolling, there's always rakeback.