$80M Game?!?

[Jax_Grinder]

Haven't seen this one discussed yet...

---

Beal and Brunson close to an $80 million poker game
By Barry Shulman, Card Player Chairman - 2005-03-25

Last fall I was at the center of, and tried to help facilitate, the biggest poker game in the world between Andy Beal, a wealthy Dallas amateur and a group of the best pros ever assembled, including Doyle Brunson.

For six weeks we went back and forth because both sides were hoping to skew things in their favor. All parties were disappointed that it just couldn't seem to come together.

Beal just phoned me and said he is ready to play on their terms. We are talking a match here where both sides put up $40,000,000 and play until one goes broke.

Full details will be available next week in Card Player and at CardPlayer.com.

---

I can't wait to see what the pros' "terms" are. Why doesn't Beal simply write a check for $20M to charity, give the pros $15M, and rathole the last $5M for when he goes broke?

Seriously though, I understand the gambling mentality, but he doesn't even have the remotest chance of success here, so why do it? Is there some angle I am missing that makes this an even-money or better deal for the guy? (Book deal, movie or something?).

[ismisus]

Andy Beal is a very smart man, imho he has more than "remote" chance of winning. One doesn't have to waste all his life playing poker when he can make billions in the office.

[dogmeat]

Hey Jax, since Beal has "no chance", what odds would you like to offer me (I'll take Beal), and for how much?

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[flair1239]

IMO this is dick waving at it's finest. I mean these are all guys that could arrange a private game with "rich fish" every night of the week, and be huge EV in every game.

I'll bet there would be some people willing to pay these guys (on top of the money that they will lose) just to play with them for a few hours.

I don't know how to figure out how much of a favorite they are over Beal, but I don't think it would be much, and there are definetly better spots for everyone involved.

If they do this, I will lose a lot of respect for them... but I will watch.

[BarronVangorToth]

Another thing to think about is this event in terms of relativity: him putting up $20million could be analagous to someone else putting up $20 - and even if you didn't have the best of it, who wouldn't do a $20 freeze-out with the top pro's?

Not to mention the random publicity and bragging rights if he could make it happen.... He's invariably not the favorite, but I don't believe he's going to be a complete mark either.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[willie]

I'd hate to see the pros get busted in this....i guess they figure they have the ability and roll to sustain this action but it's just SOOOO high stakes, one bad run of cards and this is going to be brutal.

[Jax_Grinder]

Perhaps my comment about Beal having "no chance" were ill-considered, though I would reserve judgment on that until we see what the "terms" are. Seems to me that the game(s), limits, rules, etc. will dictate his chances more than any relative skill. Even if he is only a marginal dog in any given session to Doyle & Crew I don't see how he comes out on top when all is said and done (given that the end game is one side down $40M).

Also, in my experience, very successful people don't obtain that success by treating $100 bills like Charmin.

[tpir90036]

Beal is a very smart mathematician and has held his own against the pros on occasions in the past. It is unlikely that the pros edge is significant enough to outpace the variance of playing heads-up at these extremely high stakes (in relation to their bankroll).

Beal knows this and has been trying to goad them into playing for stakes that will expose them to ruin. I am not sure on what stakes they agreed exactly.... but to think that the pros have a 2 to 1 edge, for example, is ludicrous.

[threeonefour]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Jax, since Beal has "no chance", what odds would you like to offer me (I'll take Beal), and for how much?

Dogmeat

[/ QUOTE ]

Count me in as well.

[cwsiggy]

I think Doyle said he would never play at the previous high stakes of 100k/200k or maybe it was 50k/100k. It almost ruined the corporation last time. I think 30k/60k is the highest the pros are willing to go. There may be a lot of homes for sale in Summerlin after this - lol.

[tpir90036]

Paul Phillips said it better than I in a journal entry from last year:

http://extempore.livejournal.com/56177.html

There is a good reply in the thread from Russell Rosenblum as well as this link (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=&Number=1077522&page=&view =&sb=5&o=&fpart=#Post1077522) to a reply from our own D. Sklansky.

[Jax_Grinder]

Agreed and agreed. What I find intriguing, and what I apparently didn't emphasize sufficiently in my post, is that Beal has accepted THEIR "terms". I have to believe that these will not be favorable to Beal's efforts.

[RowdyZ]

I disagree that he doesn't stand a chance. However I do think it will hard for him to win due to factors I haven't seen anyone mention yet. Stamina, both physical and mental. One person againist a whole group even if all are equally skilled the group is going to have the advantage even if it is one at a time. Say Beal plays Lederer for 8-10 hous. Then next day faces Chan for same then Harman.. Then D. Brunson then T. Brunson the next. Even with shorter sessions and longer breaks the grind will get to Beal first and the Corporation will be able to stay somewhat fresh.
Also all the different styles Beal will have to cope with, because each one plays differently so be hard for him to get his on tempo going when the other style keeps changing.Finally he will have be exposed to several top pros. Perhaps Lederer picks up on something and passes the info on to Chan who can exploit it the next session or Harman sees something that plays to a strength of Todd Brunson. etc all they will have the collective knowledge of all those pros to map out a perfect game plan and adept as it goes on ot compare notes.

[JRegs]

What exactly is the "Corporation"? I assume it's a group of the top limit HE players, but is there a specific list?

[ThreeBeers]

I noticed that you used the term "Crew" to describe Doyle's Group of merry men. Given how Dutch and his boys have adopted that name, I would think Doyle would be insulted. Just kidding of course.

3 Beers

[trying2learn]

i'm getting more and more amused by the posts people join up on the board to say. this is what you've brought to the table? welcome.

[cwsiggy]

Doyle Brunson, Howard Lederer, Todd Brunson, Chip Reese, Johnny Chan, Jennifer Harman, Chau Giang, Gus Hansen, Phil Ivey, Barry Greenstein + 6 others....

[ThreeBeers]

Actually, I joined to simply amuse you. Given your post it seems that I accomplished my goal. Seriously, I know Jax (play against him regularly) and know that the term "Crew" to him is like finger nails on a chalk board, so my comment was dripping with sarcasam.

3 Beers

[Hold'me]

This sounds exciting. Is Daniel Negreanu also a member of the Corporation?

[cwsiggy]

Don't think Daniel is in it but maybe he should be.....

[PoBoy321]

From what I understand, Beal has been playing in multi-million dollar games against the top pros for years. In that time, he has apparently become one of the top heads-up NL players in the world, so I think that he actually has a very good chance of getting the best of it in this game.

[lighterjobs]

[ QUOTE ]
I do think it will hard for him to win due to factors I haven't seen anyone mention yet. Stamina, both physical and mental.

[/ QUOTE ]

I read somewhere that he sat in the big game for ridiculous amounts of time wearing headphones and not saying a word. He has to have a little stamina.

[IHateCats]

Based on Beals previous comments and statements in Cardplayer, he's strictly a heads up Limit Hold'em specialist, not No Limit. I would suspect that his odds of winning would be substantially less in a no limit format.

[random]

Consider taxes... This is huge -EV for everyone.

[PoBoy321]

Yeah, I went back and reread the articles and yeah, limit, not no-limit, but still, one of the best in the world. That was my point.

[threeonefour]

[ QUOTE ]
Consider taxes... This is huge -EV for everyone.

[/ QUOTE ]

consider tax shelters...

[andyfox]

"I'd hate to see the pros get busted in this"

Why? They're poker pros, not Mother Teresa.

[PoBoy321]

[ QUOTE ]
They're poker pros, not Mother Teresa.

[/ QUOTE ]

POTD

[Paul Phillips]

[ QUOTE ]
consider tax shelters...

[/ QUOTE ]

I am reminded of the scene in office space where they are trying to figure out what to do with the money and someone suggests they should launder it.

Can you elaborate on exactly how you would apply "tax shelters" to the issue at hand?

[WaimanaloSlim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
consider tax shelters...

[/ QUOTE ]

I am reminded of the scene in office space where they are trying to figure out what to do with the money and someone suggests they should launder it.

Can you elaborate on exactly how you would apply "tax shelters" to the issue at hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

What to do with the money? How 'bout another scene from "Office Space"?

Peter: What would you do if you had a million dollars?
Lawrence: I'll tell you what I'd do, man, two chicks at the same time, man.
Peter: That's it? If you had a million dollars, you'd do two chicks at the same time?
Lawrence: Damn straight. I always wanted to do that, man. And I think if I had a million dollars I could hook that up, cause chicks dig a dude with money.
Peter: Well, not all chicks.
Lawrence: Well the kind of chicks that'd double up on a dude like me do.
Peter: Good point.
Lawrence: Well what about you now? what would you do?
Peter: Besides two chicks at the same time?
Lawrence: Well yeah.
Peter: Nothing.
Lawrence: Nothing, huh?
Peter: I'd relax, I would sit on my ass all day, I would do nothing.
Lawrence: Well you don't need a million dollars to do nothing, man. Just take a look at my cousin, he's broke, don't do $hit.

So, 80 million dollars? 2 chicks at the same time for 80 times?

[pokergripes]

The taxes point is a great one...assuming they are doing this in calendar '05 in the great State of Texas, I believe they're looking at a dead tax loss to start out (since gambling losses can't be used to offset non-gambling income and can't be carried forward to future years) equal to:

(0.45 [or thereabouts, depending on the effective marginal state and local income tax rates in Texas] x ($40,000,000 - outside '05 gambling losses of the winner of the freeze out)) - (0.45 x ($40,000,000 - outside '05 gambling wins of the loser of the freeze out)).

In other words, assuming the outside gambling wins and losses of the applicable players are likely to be much smaller than the freeze out amounts in question, the whole enterprise faces a major tax drag if played in the U.S.

[tpir90036]

Good point. Although I would imagine they were close enough to his terms for him to agree. The big question is who wants this game to happen more and who bent the furthest?

Some separate questions: Is it possible that the best players in the world would overestimate their edge in this game? Or do they just want to gamble it up for insanely high stakes?

[Howard Treesong]

[ QUOTE ]
the whole enterprise faces a major tax drag if played in the U.S.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. But the tax drag isn't likely to be symmetric. I don't presume to know what other gambling Andy B has done this year. If, as one might expect, the Corporation spreads its risk out among the poker community, the tax drag for the Corporation may well be much smaller.

Not that anyone in the poker world exaggerates losses for tax reasons, of course.

[Moonsugar]

dont know where you get your formula but:

1) there is no marginal federal rate of 45%

and

2) there is no income tax in texas

[MonkeeMan]

[ QUOTE ]
2) there is no state income tax in texas

[/ QUOTE ]

[RiverTheNuts]

[ QUOTE ]

Also, in my experience, very successful people don't obtain that success by treating $100 bills like Charmin.

[/ QUOTE ]

NINE IF IVE HAD CHILI

[RowdyZ]

Neither Texas or Nevada has a state income tax so either plcae they played they would be safe from that. However Corp members who live in California better watch out because that state will try thier best to get their hands on some of it. California tried to tax a company for a satellite they had in space. It was built and launched in another state and was in orbit over the equator but because that company had a headquaters in California they said it was taxable property. Heck they even tax the costumes of the Icecapdes.

[Scooterdoo]

Haven't read through this thread in its entirety so if someone else posted this link, sorry for the duplication. I think this will help explain more about who Beal is and what is going on:

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=14268

[BoBtheBLOGGER]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, in my experience, very successful people don't obtain that success by treating $100 bills like Charmin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reminds me of my favorite thing I leared from watching Tilt... I better remember to bring an extra $1000 to the bathroom with me if I've been eating chili.

BoB

[pokergripes]

But still likely a material expected drag, if one makes the following reasonable assumptions:

--AB more likely to lose than the pros,

--AB likely to not have anything approaching $40 million of outside net gambling wins for '05 to offset the loss, and

--Corporation investors are more likely than not to have net outside gambling wins for '05 (since presumably those given access to this type of investment, who are also willing to remove the money from their own bankrolls for a significant period of time, and potentially forever, by making the investment, are otherwise net winners after expenses).

So, you have introduced only a secondary set of considerations to my insightful piece of primary analysis, as per usual /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[pokergripes]

Yes, Sugar, that's why I wrote after the first appearance of the 0.45 "[or thereabouts, depending on the effective marginal state and local income tax rates in Texas]"--because it didn't seem worthwhile to spend a lot of time investigating state and local tax rates in various Texas locales, and the same analysis in any event holds true using just the 0.39 federal marginal rate... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[pokergripes]

Yes, noted, and if that were the only consideration, I would now consider moving directly to Texas.

However, as a relatively new user, perhaps I could suggest that the analytical forest takes precedence over the trees... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[TomHimself]

New article
Update (http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=14637&m_id=65559)

[harboral]

Questions:

How did this thread manage to attract so many posters that have less than 10 posts?

Why are they so certain of the possible problems and outcomes?

How would I become so confident of my opinions, without watching the previous battles?

What does this do to the book scheduled to come out that is all about the last "Big" game between Beal and the Corporation?

Just wondering............ /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[pokergripes]

Truth be told, this thread actually prompted me to register, since I had something incremental to add (otherwise was just quietely reading stuff from time to time but not posting...)

Although, as you might imagine, people can become confident of their opinions in any number of ways that do not necessarily involve witnessing poker arguments on twoplustwo... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
Questions:

How did this thread manage to attract so many posters that have less than 10 posts?

Why are they so certain of the possible problems and outcomes?

How would I become so confident of my opinions, without watching the previous battles?

What does this do to the book scheduled to come out that is all about the last "Big" game between Beal and the Corporation?

Just wondering............ /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

b/c this is the WPT forum

[Jax_Grinder]

And they better have it nailed down, lest they end up in Federal F*** Me in the A** Prison.

[Jax_Grinder]

[ QUOTE ]
Questions:

How did this thread manage to attract so many posters that have less than 10 posts?

Why are they so certain of the possible problems and outcomes?

How would I become so confident of my opinions, without watching the previous battles?

What does this do to the book scheduled to come out that is all about the last "Big" game between Beal and the Corporation?

Just wondering............

[/ QUOTE ]

What precisely is the number of posts required before one can become the arbiter of what constitutes a worthy comment on the discussion? 369?

If we assume that ABs opponents are top players, then isn't it a reasonable assumption, without knowing more, that AB is a significant dog here (depending on the structure, of course)?

[MichaelC]

[ QUOTE ]
Questions:


What does this do to the book scheduled to come out that is all about the last "Big" game between Beal and the Corporation?

Just wondering............ /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You know, I've spend a huge amount of time wondering the same thing, having written that book. I've had several people connected with publicity for my publisher give their opinions and they've split down the middle: half says it dates the book, and the other half say the publicity will jack up sales tremendously.

It's out June 2, so buy it QUICKLY!

MC

P.S. - Not to shill TOO MUCH, but from the types of posts in this thread, you guys ought to love the book. A lot of it is occupied with your questions and concerns: how much of a favorite are the pros? How good a player is Beal? Who negotiates better? Is this game better than some other game they could be playing? Etc.

[pokergripes]

Now, given the amount of free buzz we're generating here for you by discussing the topic in the first place, shouldn't you be shooting us each a free autographed copy of this book? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I'd like the autograph in mine to read: "Pokergripes, if you think you know so much about nlh, why aren't you playing more big events and taking down huge wins on tv by now?? Your pal, Mike" /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Martin Aigner]

[ QUOTE ]
POTD

[/ QUOTE ]

What does that mean?

[cwsiggy]

Post of the day. but you knew that...

[Martin Aigner]

Oh, tx /images/graemlins/blush.gif