flop decision

[mr pink]

dealt A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif

utg+1 open raises (he's raised about 15 of the last 20 hands preflop and the table is gettin sick of it), 1 coldcaller, mp1 3-bets, folded to me on the CO, I cap, folded to utg+1 who calls, cold caller calls, mp1 calls.

4 to the flop for 17.5 sbs

flop: Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

checked to mp1 who bets, hero???

[Jeffage]

Raise. The pot's too large to do anything else. Hopefully he has something like JJ and you can get it heads up with a raise (since the board is scary). Also, if anyone coldcalls you can pretty easily know a Queen is out and prepare to put zero additional bets in the pot. Calling is the worst thing to do and I think the pot's too big for you to fold just yet since you can't be sure the queen is out. I'd splash a little on the flop...then see what develops and play well.

Jeff

[rmarotti]

What's your line if hero is 3-bet?

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
What's your line if hero is 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold the turn unimproved, but I'm certainly peeling.

[Jeffage]

Like all things...it depends. Did anyone coldcall. If he 3-bets after that, I probably fold, or peel and fold the turn. If others don't coldcall..I think about things. Most people wouldn't play a queen fast here even if the pot is huge since the board is very non-threatening to something like AQ. So if he reraises, he either has some kind of pair (99, 10-10, JJ, KK, AA). So it depends on the player what my line is for the rest of the hand (as in would he typically 3-bet with 99, 10's preflop and then continue to be aggro on this board)? If not, the bigger pairs are more likely and I'm drawing slim. So I may fold or I may call planning to fold the turn w/o improvement. If he would raise other hands, particularly against a loose moron and play them aggro here...I lean towards calling the flop 3-bet and the turn and then playing well on the river. No easy answers, but you're going to have to play some poker in large pots.

Jeff

[mr pink]

jeffage,

you are 100% correct here. god, i'm such a weak/tight pussy.

i have been working my way through a pretty sizable downswing and have been questioning some of my plays lately. i called here, i knew it was wrong, i did it anyway. looks like it's time to drop down some levels until i get my confidence back.

[ErrantNight]

what do you hope to gain by raising? this pot is huge. you're not getting it headsup by raising. hoping he has JJ won't get you anywhere. a cold call doesn't mean a Q. the pot is too big to fold.

so why can't you call?

[ErrantNight]

i don't think he's 100% correct here at all.

[Chris Dow]

Yeah the size of the pot seems to mandate a raise. I'm curious what some people think for a line after the flop. Like for example hero raise, MP calls so hu to the turn. If MP checks what is the correct approach? Do you bet or take fc? I'm assuming a rag turn btw. After that say the river rags off. Can you even consider calling the bet with nut no pair? Don't you have to consider it? I would say it's pretty obvious that if you hit something on the turn or river you're calling to the showdown.

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
you're not getting it headsup by raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

i called, the other 2 folded. so yeah, i think a raise would have gotten it heads up. but that's besides the point.

[ErrantNight]

calls.

the pot is huge, you can't offer strong enough odds to fold your opponents if they have a hand.

further, you're not necessarily ahead, and you're probably not getting this headsup if you raise. if UTG+1 is a maniac, raising light, and you've got a chump cold-caller, they may be offering you a decent overlay for MP1, who seems to like their hand, and is at least observant enough to be isolating, and may indeed like to get this flop headsup with you (with an underpair, say).

a raise isn't terrible here only because there's a chance you're ahead... but i don't see what you hope to accomplish by doing so. MP1 isn't going to fold a better hand, and if they have a worse hand, it's one you've likely got dominated, so you'd be happy if they keep bluffing. there's no draws of much concern, so if you hit, you're likely beating any of these other chumps that stick around.

if a blank falls on the turn you can raise for value if you think you're ahead more often than not to get this headsup, but a flop raise doesn't accomplish that enough to compensate for the times in which you are not ahead.

[Jeffage]

Look at the nature of the board AND the size of the pot, not just the latter. The flop is Q-Q-6 rainbow. You really think a raise won't eliminate something like 77, 88 (that would have to call two cold) enough to be profitable? There is the added benefit that if someone coldcalls, you get valuabable info and can be done with the hand. All this at the cost of only one addtional small bet.

Also, (and this is in response to your other post), it's not necessary for there to be a chance you're ahead for raising to be correct in this spot. Raising with probable 2nd best hands is often correct if it increases your chances of winning a very large pot.

Jeff

[cnfuzzd]

I would just like to point out that one of the players in this hand is not even known by position, merely by the name "cold caller"

I raise because i expect to have the best hand, as UTG is a donk, coldcaller has anyhand, and MP1 was probably raising with,,, lets say AT. If im wrong, im finding out right here.

Man, im a lag this morning.

peace

john nickle

[CallMeIshmael]

Given that we are:

[ QUOTE ]
Raising with probable 2nd best hand

[/ QUOTE ]

The answer to:

[ QUOTE ]
You really think a raise won't eliminate something like 77, 88 (that would have to call two cold) enough to be profitable?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is no.


If the bettor has a hand like JJ, what does raising really accomplish? For raising to be correct in this situation (ie. with 77 behind us), the following has to happen:

a) An A or K has to come
b) A 7 has to come
c) He would have to fold his 77 for 2 bets and not 1.

The probabilty of the union of A) and B) is 1.16%. We are putting an extra 1sb into an 18.5 sb pot. That is 5.4% of the pot. Do you see a problem here?

Raising is not cleaning up outs either. With a pair of Qs on board, it is impossible to be reverse dominated. The only way be lose if an A or K hit is: someone boats or someone has a Q. (excluding straights).

The only way raising in correct, IMO, is that:

a) The bettor has a worse hand than us
b) We can get some folds behind us

Clearly, b) is probably true. But what about a)?

Pink, what are your reads on this guy? Could he have AJ, or another AK here? Or is this a PP (or Q)?

If pink doesn't think he would bet a worse hand than us, raising is really bad, IMO. I just dont see folding out a hand that would go on to beat us if we hit often enough to be worth another bet.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
calls.

the pot is huge, you can't offer strong enough odds to fold your opponents if they have a hand.

further, you're not necessarily ahead, and you're probably not getting this headsup if you raise. if UTG+1 is a maniac, raising light, and you've got a chump cold-caller, they may be offering you a decent overlay for MP1, who seems to like their hand, and is at least observant enough to be isolating, and may indeed like to get this flop headsup with you (with an underpair, say).

a raise isn't terrible here only because there's a chance you're ahead... but i don't see what you hope to accomplish by doing so. MP1 isn't going to fold a better hand, and if they have a worse hand, it's one you've likely got dominated, so you'd be happy if they keep bluffing. there's no draws of much concern, so if you hit, you're likely beating any of these other chumps that stick around.

if a blank falls on the turn you can raise for value if you think you're ahead more often than not to get this headsup, but a flop raise doesn't accomplish that enough to compensate for the times in which you are not ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dig it all the way.

Also, I think

[ QUOTE ]
a raise isn't terrible here only because there's a chance you're ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is just about the only reason to raise here.

[marching_on_together]

You say a raise won't cut down the field i disagree, on this board a raise by the pre-flop capper is going to make it difficult for lots of hands to call, some of which like small PP are obviously ahead of hero. If hero currently has the best hand here which is possible given the cold caller and 3-better might be rather miffed with the manic raiser and be cold calling/raising light then my flop raise put's them under pressure. If i'm ahead then with the size of the pot i would be very pleased to see somebody fold any hand even 72. It's not going to be an easy hand to play but raising the flop does achieve something. If you call and end up getting beat by UTG=1 pairing his/her 5 on the turn then you will wish you raised.

[Jeffage]

I'm busy at work so can't respond to your post above in much detail right now. But I will respond to this. You are not likely ahead based on the preflop action, but the pot is big enough that you are going to call anyway in case your outs are good. Raising does a number of things. First, it will give you a clearer sense if a queen is out. Second, it will eliminate opponents, boosting (even moderately) your chance of winning a giant pot. Third, IT MAY BUY YOU A FREE CARD (and if someone has the Queen, they may choose to slowplay b/c it seems you will bet the turn so it will cost you less). Basically this pot is very large and, based on the position of the bettor, raising is the best decision.

Jeff

[ErrantNight]

you're not getting a free card if you're behind.

[CallMeIshmael]

Again, I have to stress that my taste for a call her goes on the assumption that the bet means he has a PP or a Q. Without this assumption, raising is clearly the best play.

[ QUOTE ]
First, it will give you a clearer sense if a queen is out.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true. But, it doesn't MEAN a Q is out. It just gives us a better idea.

I mean, if you are cold called, are you planning to not showdown a K or A turn?

[ QUOTE ]
Second, it will eliminate opponents, boosting (even moderately) your chance of winning a giant pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. But, as I showed in my other post, the equity you gain from folding out hands that would beat you is not greater than the loss of the second bet.

[ QUOTE ]

Third, IT MAY BUY YOU A FREE CARD

[/ QUOTE ]

IT MAY ALSO GET YOU THREE-BET

[Jeffage]

I wouldn't bet on that. If someone has a Queen, they will likely slow down looking for more action later. Something with JJ or 10's or whatever may slow down bc you CAPPED PREFLOP and you're now raising on a QQ6 board. Not many opponents will reraise in this spot. Honestly if you are going to call here, you should raise in this large pot since the bet is right next to you and you have the chance to clear some people out (inc. some better hands). Obv. if utg bet and there were 3 calls, the situation would be different. You simply should not be trying to save bets in large pots.

Jeff

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
If i'm ahead then with the size of the pot i would be very pleased to see somebody fold any hand even 72. It's not going to be an easy hand to play but raising the flop does achieve something. If you call and end up getting beat by UTG=1 pairing his/her 5 on the turn then you will wish you raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Much of the debate here is assuming that the bet means we don't have the best hand. If the bet could come from a worst hand, there is no play other than raising that is even close to correct.

Once you've assumed that you are behind, folding hands like 77, or 72 isn't worth the extra bet (and possible 3-bet)

[Jeffage]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean, if you are cold called, are you planning to not showdown a K or A turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but it certainly means I'm not planning on betting the turn since free cards wouldn't really hurt at that point if ahead and I want to avoid being checkraised. I'd try to showdown for one bet.

[ QUOTE ]
Right. But, as I showed in my other post, the equity you gain from folding out hands that would beat you is not greater than the loss of the second bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are going to continue, raising is much better. It gives you more options on the turn, it may fold out hands beating you, it may give you valuable information, etc., etc. Your analysis looked only at math and failed to (imo) properly consider strategic factors.

[ QUOTE ]
IT MAY ALSO GET YOU THREE-BET

[/ QUOTE ]

So what? Play well at this point.

Jeff

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
it may fold out hands beating you

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, this isnt overly relevant. Like I said, this wins you the pot ~1% more frequently. What hands are we folding that you are DYING to have fold, given that we are against a JJ type hand?

[ QUOTE ]
it may given you valuable information, etc., etc.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think we'll have to let pink decide this. Depending on the game, some players (especially the type who raise 15 outta 20 hands) have a large cold calling range here.

I don't know how you can respond to the possibilty of putting in two extra SBs with a hand that could be drawing to a runner-runner straight with

[ QUOTE ]

So what? Play well at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

[cnfuzzd]

[ QUOTE ]
utg+1 open raises (he's raised about 15 of the last 20 hands preflop and the table is gettin sick of it), 1 coldcaller, mp1 3-bets, folded to me on the CO, I cap, folded to utg+1 who calls, cold caller calls, mp1 calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is anyone putting anyone on a hand here? This is what youve got. Thats it. We know some things.

1. UTG will raise no matter what. Hes either giving oral pleasure to the dealer, or he is a Uber-Lag.

2) table is not happy with UTG. Im taking that to mean that they are trying to stand up to him, which for most bad players means not folding.

3) MP1 is aware that UTG is a crazy bastard. He could likely be excuting a loose raise here assuming that he doesnt mind playing against the crazy and the coldcaller.

4) No one folded to Hero's cap. Diagram anyone?

Thats it. To begin assuming that anyone here has JJ or 77 is pure speculation. MP1 could have literally any decent hand, could be using you to raise and clean up what he thinks are his overcard outs, or maybe he just flopped quads. Who knows?

I think its a large assumption to think we are behind on this flop. A raise here only has to increase our chances of winning something like 10% to be profitable, and folding out one of the players would clearly do that. Given the size of the pot, im going to play more aggressive.

peace

john nickle

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats it. To begin assuming that anyone here has JJ or 77 is pure speculation. MP1 could have literally any decent hand, could be using you to raise and clean up what he thinks are his overcard outs, or maybe he just flopped quads. Who knows?

I think its a large assumption to think we are behind on this flop. A raise here only has to increase our chances of winning something like 10% to be profitable, and folding out one of the players would clearly do that. Given the size of the pot, im going to play more aggressive.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with everything here, 100%.

I have said several times (if you had read carefully) that raising is 100% clear if it is possible that the bettor has a worse hand than we do.

I questioned pink in one of my posts as to whether or not he believed the bettor would bet AK/AJ or another unpaired hand. He has yet to respond.

If he says he might bet one of those hands, then I agree the entire debate is moot. Raising is absolutely necessary.

If however, the bet means we are behind, raising is not as good of an idea. This is why, in all of my posts I have made the assumption that we are behind (and just used JJ as an example. It could just as easily be any other PP < QQ).

[ErrantNight]

Aiiight. You've talked me into it. At least enough that I don't think raising would be bad. Are you planning on folding the turn unimproved if bet into? Or calling down?

Assuming everyone folds behind you.

[runa]

Great post and discussion, and I think absent the uber-lag I think Errant's line is more viable.

Here I like raising more. If we're assuming everyone but MP folds:

If called on the flop then checked to, lead the turn, fold to a CR. If called on the turn I'd likely check behind on the river, but if bet into...very tough to call UI, I'd probably have to fold.

If SnG'ed then you'd have a tough call, but its probably close enough with 3-6 outs with ~10BB pot.

If 3-bet, check/call the turn (3-6 outs ~11 BB pot) and check/fold the river UI.

Does that sound about right?

[CallMeIshmael]

I don't know about this one...

[ QUOTE ]
If 3-bet, check/call the turn (3-6 outs ~11 BB pot) and check/fold the river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

[runa]

I guess I was considering a wide range of hands might 3-bet here KK, JJ-77? Perhaps too wide?

Edit: and the obvious Qx, but are we drawing dead too often to continue here?

[meep_42]

If MP1 is a thinking player that could lay down a lower pp or AK, I would play this like I had a Q. Smooth call the flop, raise the turn.

-d

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I was considering a wide range of hands might 3-bet here KK, JJ-77? Perhaps too wide?

Edit: and the obvious Qx, but are we drawing dead too often to continue here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Online I agree with you, in that there is a wide range of 3-betting hands.

I don't play much live, but that 3-bet means you are dead to rights A LOT, from what I've played and what I've heard.

[mr pink]

the villain that 3-bet preflop had just sat down, this was his second orbit and i'd never played with him before. of the 2 orbits, i hadn't seen him get out of line thus far. fwiw, i felt like i was behind on the flop... it still doesn't mean calling was correct though.

[runa]

So basically you'd change the plan to fold immediately to a 3-bet? If we're assuming that you a 3-bet means drawing dead, which might be a reasonable assumption given the aggression and counter-aggression already shown, perhaps that makes raising even more beneficial in this case.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
So basically you'd change the plan to fold immediately to a 3-bet? If we're assuming that you a 3-bet means drawing dead, which might be a reasonable assumption given the aggression and counter-aggression already shown, perhaps that makes raising even more beneficial in this case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again you have to ask pink if a 3-bet = queen. It might, it might not. I don't know.

Though I havent done the math, I would assume that in a pot this big, you have to be **very** sure the information you are getting is accurate to raise/fold the flop.