Check-folding the flop heads up as the preflop aggressor

[tizim]

The game is 2/4 10-handed, and the players on my left are very tight. Button's stats are 10/5/2.5 with a Went to SD of 50% over 100 hands.

I open-raise from MP3 with KJo. Button coldcalls, and the blinds fold.

The flop is 763r. I check/fold.

Does anyone play this differently?

[QTip]

I bet the flop. With a flop like this and a cold-call from a tighter player after your the aggressor, you'll pick this pot up on the flop a large % of the time. No reason to back down yet.

Just because someone's tight, doesn't mean they play the game well...I'm noticing this more and more.

[Chris Dow]

Bet flop. Not betting it is 100% ridiculous. In fact I'm ready to squeeze another one off on most rag turns vs most opponents. If he only goes to showdown 50% of the time you can bet twice with a chance of improving to the best hand, that's pretty easy math, but the first bet is especially catastrophic to miss.

[IsaacW]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Betting the flop here does a lot, even if you don't pick up the pot. If he raises, then his likely hands are medium overpairs and you've got outs. I think checkfolding is a terrible line on this flop.

As always, better reads (what does he cold call with?) will make these decisions easier.

[Chris Dow]

There are no blinds in the hand and he is OOP against the raiser...

[IsaacW]

Yeah, noticed that. That's what I get for quoting QTip instead of the OP. He's OOP against a tight cold caller. I think I'm OK now.

[QTip]

Am I missing something?

[Chris Dow]

Bet da flop. If you've got that then you're good.

[tizim]

Against a normal tight player, I would usually bet this flop. The reason I'm unsure in this hand is because the opponent has a 50% went to SD, which is quite high. Of course, PT stats are not extremely reliable, especially with just 100 hands, but I've found went to SD stats to be rather helpful.

Given the coldcall, the low-card flop, and the type of player the opponent is, I don't think I can ever get him to fold the flop, unless, perhaps, he's has KQs and is willing to fold it. Moreover, I can't think of a single hand I'm ahead of, so there's no point in protecting my hand. If I bet the flop and get called, I almost have to bet the turn again against a player who likes to show his hand down.

Maybe someone can convince me otherwise, but as weak as it seems, I think check-folding is the flop is the only way to play this hand.

[Chris Dow]

If you think you have outs going into the turn then it isn't very hard to see that you should fire the barrel twice from the flop even if he is 50%. Remember that the pot size is $11 on the flop... You can't just give up here, that's ridiculously bad.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
If he only goes to showdown 50% of the time you can bet twice with a chance of improving to the best hand, that's pretty easy math, but the first bet is especially catastrophic to miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a world of difference between someone who sees showdown 50% of the time, and how often they will see showdown in this particular situation.

EDIT: Also, you seem to think that 50% is low. Do you even own PT?

[Chris Dow]

So you wanna just pass up a 5.5-1 semi bluff on the flop? No thanks, I'll bet. And if I think he'll fold around 25% of the time on the turn because I fired twice then it's going in too.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
So you wanna just pass up a 5.5-1 semi bluff on the flop? No thanks, I'll bet. And if I think he'll fold around 25% of the time on the turn because I fired twice then it's going in too.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. I agree betting is correct (I don't recall where I said it wasnt)

I was merely point out comically poor logic. That was all.

[Chris Dow]

Simplified maybe, but comically poor hurts. The guy is pretty adamant about his decision not to bet the flop and it's a pretty terrible decision. However if he wants to not bet the flop that's ok, I just think his results would improve by leading at least the flop and probably the turn too. I think overusing/misusing the PV/GT stats can be a mistake.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Simplified maybe, but comically poor hurts. The guy is pretty adamant about his decision not to bet the flop and it's a pretty terrible decision. However if he wants to not bet the flop that's ok, I just think his results would improve by leading at least the flop and probably the turn too. I think overusing/misusing the PV/GT stats can be a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree on all accounts. (my bad about comical)

I would like to point out that, if you werent aware: 50% is VERY high for a showdown percentage.

He is probably ones of those "stick it out til the end" kinda guys, which does give credence to the check/fold argument, but I still think you have to bet this flop.

[Chris Dow]

I'm certainly including the scenarios where I can be value betting with KJ on the flop vs someone with such a high call %. FWIW. When I combine all the possible scenarios together it seems catastrophic to miss the flop bet and probably pretty bad to not try on the turn too.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm certainly including the scenarios where I can be value betting with KJ on the flop vs someone with such a high call %. FWIW.

[/ QUOTE ]

UMMMM!!!????????

This is a 10/5.... that means he plays 10 percent of his hands... I would guess that means he CCs with like like 6% of his hands...

This is not a value bet... This is folding better overcards type betting

[Chris Dow]

Okie doke, good point there I didn't think a 50% showdown would have been a 10% enter and I didn't go back to look. Even so I'm not seeing the complete impossibility of KJ being ahead on this rag flop. Do these stats imply that he won't cold call with all of the suited broadways? Can he only have pairs and AK/AQ preflop? Please throw a range out there if you can for these stats.

[tizim]

I'm interested in this hand because overplaying missed overcards (especially out of position) is a leak of mine.

What hands would a very tight (preflop) coldcaller who sees a lot of showdowns fold here? Big Aces (AK, AQ, AJs) are probably calling until showdown, unless a scare card comes (i.e. he has AQ, and a K falls on the turn). If he has a pocket pair, he's going to raise me, in which case I'm almost getting odds to call (I'd probably fold, but why waste a bet to find out if you're behind, when you already know you are?). I could plan on firing on both the flop and turn, but against this player and his range of hands, I don't think I will pick up the pot 25% of the time. I have some outs, but they're tainted.

Am I missing something?

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Okie doke, good point there I didn't think a 50% showdown would have been a 10% enter and I didn't go back to look. Even so I'm not seeing the complete impossibility of KJ being ahead on this rag flop. Do these stats imply that he won't cold call with all of the suited broadways? Can he only have pairs and AK/AQ preflop? Please throw a range out there if you can for these stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 1326 possible 2 card combinations. If you add these hands together:

AA - 6 ways
KK - 6
QQ - 6
JJ - 6
TT - 6
99 - 6
AK - 16
AQ - 16
AJ - 16
KQ - 16

You get about 7.5% of all hands.

This guy plays 10% of all hands, including when he puts money in from the SB. He just cold called.

There is almost no chance our hand is good here.

His showdown percentage is so high because he starts of with big pairs far more often than we do (relatively).

As an aside, it is erroneous to think that we are getting 5.5-1 on our bluff if we intend to bluff a blank on the turn.

We have to use effective odds on the bluff

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm interested in this hand because overplaying missed overcards (especially out of position) is a leak of mine.

What hands would a very tight (preflop) coldcaller who sees a lot of showdowns fold here? Big Aces (AK, AQ, AJs) are probably calling until showdown, unless a scare card comes (i.e. he has AQ, and a K falls on the turn). If he has a pocket pair, he's going to raise me, in which case I'm almost getting odds to call (I'd probably fold, but why waste a bet to find out if you're behind, when you already know you are?). I could plan on firing on both the flop and turn, but against this player and his range of hands, I don't think I will pick up the pot 25% of the time. I have some outs, but they're tainted.

Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

My original time through the post, I failed to see how few hands he plays.

There is basically no way your hand is good here, I agree.

BUT! It is a tad erroneous to assume that he has a tendancy to see showdown, because of how tight he is.

I mean, imagine if you only played AA, how often would you see showdown? A big number.

So, I dont think you can assume from his stats that he MUST be showing down like AQ here.

[tizim]

[ QUOTE ]
There are 1326 possible 2 card combinations. If you add these hands together:

AA - 6 ways
KK - 6
QQ - 6
JJ - 6
TT - 6
99 - 6
AK - 16
AQ - 16
AJ - 16
KQ - 16

You get about 7.5% of all hands.

This guy plays 10% of all hands, including when he puts money in from the SB. He just cold called.

There is almost no chance our hand is good here.

His showdown percentage is so high because he starts of with big pairs far more often than we do (relatively).

As an aside, it is erroneous to think that we are getting 5.5-1 on our bluff if we intend to bluff a blank on the turn.

We have to use effective odds on the bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

My only problem with your hand range is that AJo/KQo is unlikely to call, and AA/KK/QQ are likely to to 3-bet preflop unless the opponent's getting tricky.

On the other hand, that's a good point that the lowest VPIP's tend to produce higher went to SD stats; I never realized that.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]

My only problem with your hand range is that AJo/KQo is unlikely to call, and AA/KK/QQ are likely to to 3-bet preflop unless the opponent's getting tricky.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I never said this was his hand range.

I was just saying that IF we assume that since he plays only 10% (actually lower because of SB) of his hands, then he probably wont be playing more than 7.5% of hands here (say, he reraises 2.5% of them and calls 5%). Thus, he almost cant have a worse hand than you.

[cassady]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think you have outs going into the turn then it isn't very hard to see that you should fire the barrel twice from the flop even if he is 50%. Remember that the pot size is $11 on the flop... You can't just give up here, that's ridiculously bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

2.75 Big bets in the pot isn't a lot to fold here. Yeah, he's only 50%, but given his tight starting card requirements and the fact that he's cold called a raise, odds are good of three things:
a). He has you beat already.
b). Some of your outs may be tainted.
(NOTE: probability here is EITHER A or B. I expect to be against either an ace-big or medium pair)
c). His odds of folding to a bet here is less than 50%.

I think based on your read of the player at the time, it's either a check-fold or a check-raise as this might actually have a chance at pushing him off a hand, especially if you fire off again on the turn. But given the size of the pot, I would most likely favour a check-fold.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think you have outs going into the turn then it isn't very hard to see that you should fire the barrel twice from the flop even if he is 50%. Remember that the pot size is $11 on the flop... You can't just give up here, that's ridiculously bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

you should keep firing on the turn, unimproved, with KJo? really?

[Ass Master]

Yes, I would bet the flop 100% of the time in this situation.

The reason is that, with a 5.5 sb pot, the button only needs to fold around 15-17% of the time for the bet to be profitable. The exact percentage depends on how likely the button is to raise and how you would respond to it (I would not fold to a raise here given the button's 2.5 aggro rating, the high likelihood of my pair outs being good, and image considerations). If he does call, you will still sometimes improve to the best hand anyway.

Because the flop is not very coordinated, I expect he would fold 17% or more of the time since there aren't very many hands he could have that he'd probably want to give you action with.

[mack848]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I would bet the flop 100% of the time in this situation.

The reason is that, with a 5.5 sb pot, the button only needs to fold around 15-17% of the time for the bet to be profitable. The exact percentage depends on how likely the button is to raise and how you would respond to it (I would not fold to a raise here given the button's 2.5 aggro rating, the high likelihood of my pair outs being good, and image considerations). If he does call, you will still sometimes improve to the best hand anyway.

Because the flop is not very coordinated, I expect he would fold 17% or more of the time since there aren't very many hands he could have that he'd probably want to give you action with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that an aggression of 2.5 is particularly high for such a tight player.

Put yourself in his position. You coldcall with 99 or KQs, for example, and the preflop raiser autobets a 763r flop. You know he didn't improve. What's your move? Many would raise - so how do you like your bet now?

Having said that, if I thought that this guy might fold 17% of the time, I would bet - but it would be the last bet I put into this pot (unless I hit the turn). I either take it down or get out. A one off, 5.5:1 shot. Given this guy's stats, I see a good chance that he has a King in his hand, so don't see firing a second shot as profitable.

[Ass Master]

I agree his aggro rating isn't very high - but it's not like he only raises with the nuts, either.

Sure, I'm not a huge fan of my bet if he raises. Perhaps many would raise, but what % is many? The guy only needs to fold around 15% of the time for betting to be profitable. Also, I don't think it is a good idea to "put yourself in their shoes" per se, simply because it is generally a mistake to assume other players think the same way you do.