Fun w/ KK

[The Dude]

Party Poker 3-6. MP in this hand seems to be pretty decent, if not a little too tight/ passive. After 400 hands, his stats are 19/5.5, and postflop aggression of 1.9/1.3/1.1.

Preflop:
UTG limps, The Dude raises in MP w/ K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP 3-bets, SB calls, limper calls, The Dude caps, everyone calls.

Flop: (16 SBs) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 Players)</font>
Checked to The Dude who bets, MP raises. SB and UTG call cold, The Dude 3-bets, everyone calls.

Turn: (14 BBs) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 Players)</font>
SB and UTG check. What should Dude's plan be for the rest of the hand?

[ArturiusX]

I'd bet. Can't give him credit for AA yet.

Another line would be to check, have MP bet, and hope SB and UTG both call, and raise trapping them for another few. Adding money to the dead pot improves the expectancy of this hand. I guess it depends on your read with MP, is he aggressive enough to bet this turn?

[Chris Dow]

Well it certainly isn't fold! Play straightforward in big pots right? Well forget that. I might be crazy but obviously we need to put MP on AA or AK, from your description he isn't even going to see the turn with QQ or try anything crazy. So he has two hands both of which he can have 3 ways (1 king, 3 aces) So we're 50/50 on whether or not we're still winning. Ok, and we have kings full in a monster pot? Right, so check to MP, he will bet with either AK or AA, don't bet so MP can raise out the epish people. let MP bet, let it go call call or whatever, then you have to decide whether to raise or just call turn? Hrmmm... if you cr turn the gig is up since MP is passive, he'll probably even fold AK right? At the same time you wouldn't want to lose equity from any 2 that might be out. If you can cr turn and get AK to just call from MP and MP only raises with AA then I think this is very clear cr on turn. If you can't fold on the turn if MP goes 3 then I think a good line is to just check call the turn, lead the river and call if MP raises. Since MP is 50/50 to be ahead or behind I don't think you can really go insane and 4 bet like mad unless you just like variance, keep in the fish.

[chesspain]

Given MP's PF numbers, I doubt that he has KQo/KQs. Furthermore, although he may have raised/called on the flop with QQ/JJ/TT to try to catch his set, he may not even stick around now with any of those hands now that an A fell.

Consequently, I'm focusing on the likelihood that MP has either AK or AA, of which there are now three combinations of each. Since we are going to be a dog to half of the hands with which he might raise our possible turn bet, I vote for checking the turn, since there is no reason to force out the two players in early position, each of whom is likely drawing nearly dead.

Consequently, I might just checkcall the river, although chekraising might be appealing as well.

[Chris Dow]

For the same reasons as chesspain check/call the TURN, with possibly lead out the river and call one raise or even just check/call the river seem valid. Check/raising the river seems very silly to me though vs MPs range of hands.

[jdl22]

edit: I was thinking while typing this so it's a bit wandering.

my instinct tells me to bet the turn and call if he raises looking to checkraise the river. I would fear dropping the cold callers who you're more likely to gain river bets from with this line. Thinking about it more I'm not so sure because they called two cold twice already. Perhaps betting and raising as much as possible is a better line.

It is of course possible he has aces. His pfr stat is lowish but not that low aggression so he could raise lighter in this spot. The problem is the flop. His raise/call line is a bit puzzling.

You're way ahead or way behind but somebody is drawing virtually dead (1 or 2 outs) after that turn card. Unless they're uber passive you should be well ahead of the cold callers. I think their money going in makes it +EV to jam away. So do whatever gets the most money from the two cold callers. This depends largely on your read on them.

wow I need some sleep.

[sthief09]

I think he'd cap with AA on the flop. he could have AK but there are only 3 of those. I can't imagine this guy having anything else though. the problem is you can't trust him to not go nuts with AK. I don't think you can fold to a cap after a bet-3bet. check raising won't get a 3-bet though from AK. so I bet expecting a raise, then 3-bet

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
I might be crazy but obviously we need to put MP on AA or AK, from your description he isn't even going to see the turn with QQ or try anything crazy... if you cr turn the gig is up since MP is passive, he'll probably even fold AK right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, I think you are crazy. No way in hell MP is folding AK at any point in this hand. And I'd expect him to call the flop with any non-AA pocket pair that he 3-bet me with preflop. Mirage Vegas locals are the only people in the world that would dream of folding the hands you mentioned - and I doubt even they would do it.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he'd cap with AA on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
When I 3-bet the flop, I thought there was very little chance of MP capping it. Maybe 5%-10% of the time, if that.

[Chris Dow]

Ugh fine, call me crazy. Let's try again. If he has AK I don't think he will go 4 bets on the turn. If he has AA he's going 4 bets on the turn. If you think he's going 4 bets on the turn with AK this hand becomes pretty trivial. If your opponent is going to go nuts with both AK and AA and both are equally likely and there are 2 people calling along then you do precisely and exactly whatever gets the most bets in from the 2 fish. Thanks for posting what is a relatively boring hand and flaming the responses. If at any point in the hand you get HU with MP you can do whatever you want if he's equally likely to go nuts with AK and AA however I would suggest not ramming and jamming since I think he is at least slightly less likely to go completely insane with AK and definitely going the max with AA. So there, even though he won't fold AK I think that the fact he can stop raising with it but can't stop raising AA means play to max the amount of money the fish put in.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think he'd cap with AA on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
When I 3-bet the flop, I thought there was very little chance of MP capping it. Maybe 5%-10% of the time, if that.

[/ QUOTE ]


that was extraneous information. I'd bet-3bet regardless

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
so I bet expecting a raise, then 3-bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you want to force the early position players to coldcall, which they likely won't do without a 2?

[sthief09]

yes you're right. I was thinking of the situation as if it was headsup

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so I bet expecting a raise, then 3-bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you want to force the early position players to coldcall, which they likely won't do without a 2?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ding, ding, exactly. check/raise turn if some fish call 1, if MP makes it 3 and some fish call 2 more then you cap. You're just maxing out the fish money in this coinflip with MP though.

[The Dude]

Don't be so defensive.

[Chris Dow]

Defense wins championships.

[The Dude]

The best defense is a good offense.

[Chris Dow]

touche.

[ErrantNight]

what do you think they're calling one bet with on this entirely drawless board now that an A is out?

not that i necessarily think you're wrong, as i'm really not afraid of them catching up here...

[Chris Dow]

I try not to actually think of it like that. I have no idea what the hell they might call with. But I sure hope they will find an excuse to call a bet. Since it is a total coinflip with MP the only profit to be found in the hand is for them to somehow call. Should be pretty clear that they are most likely to call 1 not 2 so that's what you try to present them with the opportunity to do.

[jdl22]

[ QUOTE ]

Why do you want to force the early position players to coldcall, which they likely won't do without a 2?

[/ QUOTE ]

They already cold called before the ace came, why wouldn't they now?

[ErrantNight]

you should try to actually think of it like that. here it's probably unimportant.

i brought up the point because i think it's a mistake to make a play on this turn for overcallers. if not a mistake, it's at least a bit of an overestimation to think they're coming along anymore. i think you're headsup going to the river well over 80% of the time, if not well over 90.

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
you should try to actually think of it like that. here it's probably unimportant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please don't generalize my poker logic in one very specific example to my entire game, thx. Due to hand distributions you are exactly 50% with MP. If you go HU to the river with him you can do whatever the hell you want cause there is no EV since he isn't folding. We are looking for profit yes? We have the nuts vs both of the other two yes? They can have at max one out if precisely one of them has the 2 yes? Try to keep them in the hand is our only goal here *regardless* of their holdings. Therefore I don't care what they have in this hand.

[ErrantNight]

don't write in such a manner that implies you apply broad logic to specific circumstances without regard for the circumstances. as you did you in the thread you posted. as you have done in pretty much every discussion you've been involved in.

i have not disagreed with chesspain's argument. i don't disagree with you. i simply asked a question: what do you think they're calling with here?

the answer is: not much.

[ErrantNight]

an A fell, it's the turn, and there's no draws on the board.

the fishiest of fishy mcfishsters cold-call with their gutshot here... but i think they'd be inclined to fold.

[Chris Dow]

You refuse to recognize the underlying logic of this hand. There is only one +EV thing you can do and you refuse to believe that trying to do it is the best action. Ok. Let's say there is a 10,000 to one shot that there is ten bucks for you in a box within your reach. All you have to do is open it to check and you get to keep the 10 bucks if it's there. Do you look or not? The end.

[ErrantNight]

all you do is follow me around and refuse to address the issues that i am discussing and remind me of things that i already know, in a tone that suggests you think i'm an idiot for not understanding the point you keep harping on, even though i've made it abundantly clear that i understood your point long before you had time to think it. let alone inform me of it.

stop it.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
You refuse to recognize the underlying logic of this hand. There is only one +EV thing you can do and you refuse to believe that trying to do it is the best action. Ok. Let's say there is a 10,000 to one shot that there is ten bucks for you in a box within your reach. All you have to do is open it to check and you get to keep the 10 bucks if it's there. Do you look or not? The end.

[/ QUOTE ]

not to mention: i just argued in favor of your point. that no one is calling 2 cold here. do you even read the thread? or just read my posts and start disagreeing with me.

[Chris Dow]

This post bores me, I stand by my original and main point to you. It is completely irrelevant what they might call with here, we simply have to provide them with the chance to do it. You say it's important what they will call with, I say it's completely unimportant here. That is all.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
Due to hand distributions you are exactly 50% with MP. If you go HU to the river with him you can do whatever the hell you want cause there is no EV since he isn't folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you really expect the player I described to play AK and AA teh same postflop? If not, then you need to take that into consideration.

[jdl22]

[ QUOTE ]

an A fell, it's the turn, and there's no draws on the board.

the fishiest of fishy mcfishsters cold-call with their gutshot here... but i think they'd be inclined to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

We know they both don't have a K here. There were even fewer draws available on the flop (at least now there are a couple of gutshots, before only backdoor to the gutshot). At this point they either have a deuce, some sort of pocket pair, or maybe Ax or they are absolutely horrificly bad (not that the or does not exclude the possibility of and). Have you seen the size of the pot lately? I would be willing to bet that most of the time this situation comes up at least one of the callers will call two cold on the turn.

[RustedCorpse]

Regardless of the hand "The Dude" you have the greatest account and avatar period. IF you go to ebay your 2+2 account, I wish to know.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
This post bores me, I stand by my original and main point to you. It is completely irrelevant what they might call with here, we simply have to provide them with the chance to do it. You say it's important what they will call with, I say it's completely unimportant here. That is all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny, I thought all I said was: "what do you think they will call you with here?"

Meaning, to spell it out for you, and chesspain, and anyone else that might be wondering... I don't think this decision is terribly important.

[The Dude]

Twenty grand, man. And of course, I get to keep the rug.

[RustedCorpse]

Like... yah man... take anyone in the house.

[bernie]

I had a different answer until I reread the post. A tight passive 3 bets preflop, then jams the flop a little. He's the one guy I don't want to see raise this turn.

You're 50-50 he has AA or AK. I'd check.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
And I'd expect him to call the flop with any non-AA pocket pair that he 3-bet me with preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Except he didn't just call the flop.

A tight passive isn't raising you on this flop after you 3 bet preflop, then bet out on the flop with an underpair to the K.

b

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
I had a different answer until I reread the post. A tight passive 3 bets preflop, then jams the flop a little. He's the one guy I don't want to see raise this turn.


[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. I'm not convinced this MP would raise the turn w/ AK. But I don't see him checking anything behind ont this turn. So The Dude checked and called the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
You're 50-50 he has AA or AK. I'd check.

[/ QUOTE ]
One of the other hosers stayed along for the river. What's my plan here?

[sthief09]

ok now I'm rested

on the flop, he could have AA or AK. you don't think he'll cap either, so it's equally likely he he might be smart enough to realize, if he has AK, that you probably don't have aces or kings full. I don't know if we can give him credit to not overplay 3 pair. if you bet, he raises, you 3-bet, he 4-bets, you're probably dead though. if you check raise and he 3-bets, I don't think you can fold. bet-3-betting might not be a bad idea headsup because you can fold to a 4-bet but get an extra 2 bets if you're ahead of him. because there are others in there and your pot equity is only 50%, it's crucial to keep those other people in. so betting is out of the question

now if he bets and it's folded around and you check raise, he probably won't 3-bet AK but again, you never know and would have to call. that's no good. if there are callers, then you'd love to get extra bets from them. if it gets 3-bet after you check raised, there's no chance of that. they probably don't have an A or K and they'd have to be donkeys to call 2 more bets after all that action.

going back, since they probably don't have an A or a K, you should probably not be too concerned with those people since they probably will fold anyway, so betting might not be so bad. I think that's important. I'd bet, 3-bet, and fold to a cap. the others won't be paying you off anyway unless they have a deuce, where they might even 3-bet it themselves

[Justin A]

I just did the math for check-calling versus check-raising.
My assumptions:
AA and Ak are equally likely.
Limpers will call roughly 60% of the time when it's one bet to them each time including the river, but will fold if it's two bets cold. I consider this generous for the case of check-raising.
Also, when you get 3bet after a checkraise, assume he has AA 95% of the time and AK 5% of the time.

Based on this it's a check-call situation by about .35 big bets. Please feel free to speak up if you think my assumptions are faulty and should be tweaked.

[sthief09]

on an AK22 board with 2/3 K's accounted for and an average of another 1.5 A's, and .5 K's, there are .5 K's and 1.5 A's left in the deck. you really think they're calling a turn bet 60% of the time.

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
going back, since they probably don't have an A or a K, you should probably not be too concerned with those people since they probably will fold anyway, so betting might not be so bad. I think that's important. I'd bet, 3-bet, and fold to a cap. the others won't be paying you off anyway unless they have a deuce, where they might even 3-bet it themselves

[/ QUOTE ]

sthief your posts are great but this paragraph kills me. I think that ignoring the extras because they most likely can't call here is bad since your betting to get raised to 3 bet to get capped and fold line is (I assume) trying to get some value out of MP by determining whether or not he has AK or AA. I think the infinitely better line is to try to string the extras along, and if they don't come along, just get to showdown with MP without going more than 3 on the turn and 2 on the river. I think that since you are coinflipping with him (at least if you keep it at this amount of raises) you need to make the showdown in this monstrous pot. To repeat, I absolutely hate a line that allows you to fold the turn here.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
on an AK22 board with 2/3 K's accounted for and an average of another 1.5 A's, and .5 K's, there are .5 K's and 1.5 A's left in the deck. you really think they're calling a turn bet 60% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the limpers call less then that pushes it more towards a check-call. The reason for doing a check-raise would be to get money from the limpers when you're even money to be the best hand.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
To repeat, I absolutely hate a line that allows you to fold the turn here.

[/ QUOTE ]


well that's wrong. the only time you hate to fold a turn in thsi situation is when you're giving up suckout equity. here, if he bets, 3-bets, and is 4 bet, he has 1 out 100% of the time. what's to hate?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
on an AK22 board with 2/3 K's accounted for and an average of another 1.5 A's, and .5 K's, there are .5 K's and 1.5 A's left in the deck. you really think they're calling a turn bet 60% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the limpers call less then that pushes it more towards a check-call. The reason for doing a check-raise would be to get money from the limpers when you're even money to be the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]


life would be good if he could check raise and fold to a 3-bet. that way he gets 2 bets from everyone when he's ahead and folds for 2 bets when behind. but even if he's winning 5% of the time, and the pot is like 18 BB, and if he's folding for 2 bets when he could see a showdown for 2 bets, he's giving up 5% of the 18 BB pot, almost 1 BB, while saving 0 BB.

[Chris Dow]

What is to hate is that you have a large pot on the turn where if you keep the betting reasonable you remain exactly 50/50 to beat his hand and can possibly get bad players to juice up a pot you're winning 50% of the time. The possibility of being bluffed 4 bet by ak is also a complete catastrophy and should be avoided. I'm saying you shouldn't even set yourself up to be able to make this fold at this point in this pot. Get to the showdown and bring as many fish along as possible.

[The Dude]

One thing I want to point out that nobody has mention yet:

We cant' really say that AK and AA are equally likely, since villian 3-bet preflop. It's not that it would be unusual for villian to 3-bet AK, but it's also not unusual for someone with such a small pfr to only coldcall with AK.

I'd say on the turn, of the times he's got AA or AK (which is probably about 95%), he's got AA 55%-60% of the time.

This hand becomes trivial if villian is less tight/ passive.

[sthief09]

no, it doesn't have that much of an effect. if he 3-bets AK 95% of the time preflop, then he has AA 51.2% and AK 48.8%

here is a chart:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Chance he Plays
AK This Way Chance he has AA
95.00% - 51.28%
90.00% - 52.63%
85.00% - 54.05%
80.00% - 55.56%
75.00% - 57.14%
70.00% - 58.82%
65.00% - 60.61%
60.00% - 62.50%
55.00% - 64.52%
50.00% - 66.67%
40.00% - 71.43%
30.00% - 76.92%
25.00% - 80.00%
20.00% - 83.33%
10.00% - 90.91%
</pre><hr />


so for him to have AA 55% of the time, this guy has to cold call with AK 20%. that's a lot

[sthief09]

he's not going to "bluff" you out with AK. he's not 4-betting AK because he doesn't think he's ahead. he's not going to try to push you of KK. he's going to call down and hope he's chopping. it's not like he has TT and is trying to push you off QQ. that is a bluff. with top 2 pair he's either going to call or value bet/raise. when he gets 3-bet, he's nto value capping with AK. if you get 4-bet, you're ahead 0% of the time, and are tossing a 2% chance to win the pot


as I said before, ti's not that reasonable to expect these people to come along. there aren't enough As and Ks in the deck.

[The Dude]

I would guesstimate that maybe 70% of the 5.5pfr'ers out there 3-bet AK. Definately not 95%. And the AA/AK ratio being 58/42 instead of 50/50 does make a difference.

[CallMeIshmael]

How did you get these stats?

Thanks.

[sthief09]

I think that's a low estimate, but we have no way of really proving it. that's not what's important. I see what you're getting at here, and I agree that it's important to consider the frequency with which he'll play certain hands.

[sthief09]

1/(1+x) where x is the probability he plays AK this way

[Chris Dow]

I'm not going to buy that he does that 0% of the time with AK. I'm not going to try to squeeze value out of determining by the 4th bet on the turn whether or not he has AK or AA. I'm going to play to get the extra money from the 2 fish in the pot. I'm gonna have to agree to disagree.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to buy that he does that 0% of the time with AK. I'm not going to try to squeeze value out of determining by the 4th bet on the turn whether or not he has AK or AA. I'm going to play to get the extra money from the 2 fish in the pot. I'm gonna have to agree to disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

there are way too many options that are way too close to give an accurate answer of what's best here. my head is spinning from thinking about this stupid hand

[The Dude]

stheif, let me add one more dimension to this hand. If MP were named Sid, how many streets would you try for a checkraise on?

[Chris Dow]

Agreed with you on that one sthief, too much thought on a situation that doesn't matter long run. Pretty much every line plays out very closely from the turn on since there is so much in the pot already. More fruitful to think about situations that occur more than once every million hands.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
stheif, let me add one more dimension to this hand. If MP were named Sid, how many streets would you try for a checkraise on?

[/ QUOTE ]


I would try to check raise the turn. if it got checked through, I would try again

[The Dude]

Learning how to play tough situations like this is much more important than you are giving it credit for. And if JustinA's calculations are correct (I'm 8-tabling, so I haven't had a chance to review them), then check-raising is a .35 BB mistake. I hardly call that "doesn't matter."

In general, I think most people in the SS forum play very poorly in large pots. They tend to see the size of the pot and stop thinking. It's a very bad habit.

[Chris Dow]

JustinA assumed this, which I think skews his results too far to be accurate anymore:
[ QUOTE ]
Also, when you get 3bet after a checkraise, assume he has AA 95% of the time and AK 5% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

[sthief09]

I think his calculations are way off.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
I think his calculations are way off.

[/ QUOTE ]

My calculations are fine, it's my assumptions that may be way off. But I think even if I tweak them around a bit this is still going to be a check-call situation. Check-raising when you have about a 50% chance of being ahead here is not the right play.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
you really think they're calling a turn bet 60% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm still a bit befuddled about what they'd play this way on the flop that they'd fold for one bet on the turn.

Either way, I think I like a check/raise here.

Rob

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think his calculations are way off.

[/ QUOTE ]

My calculations are fine, it's my assumptions that may be way off. But I think even if I tweak them around a bit this is still going to be a check-call situation. Check-raising when you have about a 50% chance of being ahead here is not the right play.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I meant assumptions

if you did it in Excel, try to tinker with it and see what assumptions you'd need to make it breakeven. that's a good gauge

[bernie]

I'd check and call.

Checkraising sounds cool, but, I don't know if i'd try it here. Against a looser aggressor behind you I might.

Can you fold to a 3 bet?

b

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you fold to a 3 bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think his calculations are way off.

[/ QUOTE ]

My calculations are fine, it's my assumptions that may be way off. But I think even if I tweak them around a bit this is still going to be a check-call situation. Check-raising when you have about a 50% chance of being ahead here is not the right play.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I meant assumptions

if you did it in Excel, try to tinker with it and see what assumptions you'd need to make it breakeven. that's a good gauge

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah I did it longhand. I should get myself a copy of Excel and learn how to use it just for this purpose though.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you fold to a 3 bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm intentionally avoiding any line that causes me to fold before showdown. If I were playing live and could get a better guage on how much MP really liked his hand, maybe I'd consider something else, but online in this particular hand I'm unwilling to let go of the hand before showdown, short of another A coming on the river.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm intentionally avoiding any line that causes me to fold before showdown. If I were playing live and could get a better guage on how much MP really liked his hand, maybe I'd consider something else, but online in this particular hand I'm unwilling to let go of the hand before showdown, short of another A coming on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're not checkraising I take it.

I'd check call it.

b

[frank_iii]

One thing that nobody's mentioning is the small sample size. Over the long run, my pfr is ~9% however I've seen a few stretches of 500-1000 hands and sub 5% pfr. There's no way I'd let a mere 400 hands convince me that he has exactly AA or AK. I don't think QQ, JJ, AQs, or KQs are out of the question here, especially if he's capable of seeing you as a light raiser. &lt;shrug&gt;

[Victor]

i would go for a checkraise here against a more aggro opp. but with 4 people in the hand you lose a lot of bb if it gets checked around. in this hand i would bet and 3bet if raised. if mp caps then i would check call the riv.

[Victor]

hi stheif

dont fold to a cap.

[Victor]

hero is not 50/50 here. there is a 3 times greater chance villain has aa than ak.

edit: ok, it is 50/50. gawd i am dumb and suck.