Omaha8 - Weak, Tight Fold

Home game, 5-10 blinds, PL, everyone buys in for $300. Early in game. Big wins are $1500-2500. Aggressive, LOOSE game.

I'm dealt KKJx, call for $10 UTG. Six people see flop.

Flop: K-6-2, rainbow.

My thinking: Top set good, no flush or true staight draws good. However, with two lows (and in this game people will bet A-3 naked), I want to see the turn card before commiting.

BB, loosey player, bets $20. I just call. Should I have raised pot?

Very aggressive player raises to $100. Everyone folds to me.

At this point, I know he has at least A-3, possibly even more wheel cards. I only have about $200 in front of me, he has me covered.

I fold. My feeling was that I was playing for a split, as a low was very likely and my money wasn't deep enough to make him fold a second/third nut, not that this player would anyway.

Of course, we deal it out: 9 on turn, case K on river.

Afterwards, i figured my decision was about 55-45 in favor of going all in on flop.

Any comments would be appreciated.

Thanks.

Tim

[twistedbeats]

why the Hell didn't you go all in? i am not certain that even a345 is a favorite vs your set of cowboys, but if it is, you said the guy is extremely agressive and would be betting a naked a3, so he doesn't even necessarily have a345. tap out, 100% of the time.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If you raise all-in you're getting about 3:2 on your money compared to folding. There is no way you're worse than a 3:2 dog here, right?

If you can't play here, then the game is too big for you. Think about that before next week's game.

BTW, the preflop call is iffy, unless it is very rare for the pot to get raised preflop. KKJx is just OK in a loose, passive Omaha high game. It really sucks in a hi-lo game.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

I've been losing at this game recently. Well, actually, breaking even, but with the quality of players (way too loose), I realized that I was gambling too much - in other words, esp. in PL, why not wait till I'm a huge favorite and get my money in then, rather than one where I'm 5050.

My feeling on this hand is that, heads up, this player will not fold. I want to be the one freerolling, not the opposition. The pot just wasn't big enough to warrant going all in.

My question was more along the lines of what is my EV if I go all in, assuming he has 3 low cards and will see the river regardless.

Tim

BTW: An example of waiting for favorable odds-We played 5 stud (one down, four up), PL, hilo declare. I was dealt pocket aces and was able to get all my money in $400+ against a xQ (100% sure he had queens, as he was raising) and x7 (a player hanging in for low, realizing that we both had pairs). My thinking in this game is to be patient, wait for monsters, cause I'm going to be paid off anyway. Yes, I might miss out on some hands and not win as much on good nights, but my standard deviation will be much lower.

[Ray Zee]

Tim, you were a favorite against most of his hands and a big favorite if he happened to be playing high as well. even under a bad case you would be just a small dog. but you are getting odds for your money as there is dead money in there that you left on the table by folding. there are few better spots to wait for. maybe you are not doing well because you are palying the wrong hands.
your ev was if you were an even chance of winning. you would be entitled to half of what you left sitting out there. but you were most certainly a favorite so add to that the % of the 200 you had left that you were the favorite plus the% of the dead money you were a favorite.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Folding when you know you have an edge is simply the wrong mentality to be a top winning player. While there is some truth to your position (why put in your money with a small edge when you can wait and get it in with a big edge), in practice it doesn't work that way.

Sometimes you think you have an edge and you're wrong. Sometimes you're folding correctly and getting blinded down. If you turn down money that is known to be yours, the big edges might not come along often enough to make up for all the small losses you took on the way.

Poker is a game of (mostly) small edges. Not as small as Blackjack and a few other games, but still a game where you need to pursue edges of any positive character.

If you want to pass up a small edge big risk scenario, wait for the NL holdem game, when I raise your $5 blind all-in to $1000, show you my AdKd, and you're holding 2d2s. Now you can fold and not be making a significant mistake. But, if your blind had been $50 instead of $5, I'd say you would be making a big mistake to fold.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Big Dave D]

Why cant he have lower trips or two pairs? Maybe he folds to your reraise. KK, and high pocket pairs in particular are OK calls in plo8b IF you are prepared to play them agressively if you hit, otherwise you shouldnt really be playing them at all. You will get some big edges in PLO8b and this is one of them. It may explain why you are a breakeven player.

Gl

Dave

[WarDekar]

I don't know much about PL, and I disagree with calling this hand preflop, but if you're going to call it preflop why fold it when you flop pretty much your ideal case? Yes, there are 2 low cards, but still. You flopped top set, and hold the nut high. You're almost guaranteed to win the high, and you still have a chance of the low not coming at all. I don't see any reason to fold this hand after the flop.

I agree, however at the other high stakes Omaha games I play in I'm a winner.

However, in this situation, I know the player well enough to know he's got at least a low draw. That was my mistake. I ran a heads up simulation on Turbo Omaha and the only situation where I'm a dog (to lose number of pots, not $$$) is if he has a full low wrap w/two backdoor flush draws. In every other situation, I'm a favorite - though, since a low will come 72% of time, I'll be most of the time.

I was prepared to call, or even raise, had I gotten another caller. Somehow, I was convinced that the low would get there. Didn't feeling like risking my stack for $50.

I think part of the problem was that in this particular game I've been running so bad, that I assume the worst. I'll flop a set, and someone will backdoor a high to beat me. Or I'll have a huge low/nut high draw, and it won't come.

Tim