FPS checkraise?

[unimproved]

Just a brief one. Villain is 23/7/1.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP1 folds, MP3 folds.

Turn: (5 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (7 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 11 BB


I'm banking on a couple of things with the river c/r: one, that Villain has one of the other broadway diamonds (I assume he has or he'd have released his hand on the turn), two, that he reads the river check as meaning that I cannot hold the nuts, and will bet his second- or third- nut flush for value (i.e., he is not a thinking enough player to check behind as I will only call with hands that beat him).

Thoughts?

*awaits several one-word responses saying 'bet'*

[mantasm]

I don't know how many hands you have with the guy, but his stats seem pretty passive and he's done nothing but call all hand. He'll call with a lot more hands than he'll bet here, probably hands like QJ or any diamond.

[Harv72b]

Why I don't like it: You're generally only going to get an extra bet out of the villian if he holds a specific card on this board. Namely, the K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. He might bet with the T, but call a river c/r? Not likely. And I think that any lower diamond is as likely to check through as bet (and not likely to call the raise).

Also, don't assume that your opponent has the flush just because he called 1 turn bet HU. I think most players would call with TP or even a paired J there, simply because there's no guarantee that you have a hand.

[unimproved]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know how many hands you have with the guy,

[/ QUOTE ]

300.

[ QUOTE ]
but his stats seem pretty passive and he's done nothing but call all hand. He'll call with a lot more hands than he'll bet here, probably hands like QJ or any diamond.

[/ QUOTE ]

You see him calling a bet here with a pair? I'm representing at least TPTK, QQ, or AA/KK with or without a diamond...

I'm not sure I like it either, just trying to gauge exactly how bad it is...

[mantasm]

The example hands I gave were two pair and any flush, but I could see just a Q or J calling. You have a pretty good passive read on him, bet and he'll probably call. Check and he'll probably check.

[unimproved]

[ QUOTE ]
I think most players would call with TP or even a paired J there, simply because there's no guarantee that you have a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mmm. I can't see from his point of view what I'd hold here that hasn't made a decent hand by now, apart from maybe TT without a diamond... even unpaired AK has a 50% chance of having made the nuts / second nuts.

[unimproved]

[ QUOTE ]
The example hands I gave were two pair and any flush

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, my mistake.

[unimproved]

[ QUOTE ]
You have a pretty good passive read on him, bet and he'll probably call. Check and he'll probably check.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess that's what it comes down to, really. I got lucky here I suppose; Villain had red TT.

[DiamondDave]

Just bet the river.

[jdl22]

[ QUOTE ]

Mmm. I can't see from his point of view what I'd hold here that hasn't made a decent hand by now, apart from maybe TT without a diamond... even unpaired AK has a 50% chance of having made the nuts / second nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

He seems to have a little something but no powerhouse given his previous action. This makes him more inclined to check the river if checked to and call if bet into. That's why I think betting is better.

[rmarotti]

Just bet.