Playing overcards out of position into a big field

[coinflip]

Thoughts on flop play here? With the large field I figure A-high isn't best and check to see the action behind. When it's a single bet back, I have to stick around with my overcards and BDFD, and I figure I should raise to clear up overcard outs ...

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises...</font>

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
and I figure I should raise to clear up overcard outs ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Out of curiosity to all those reading:

In the party poker 2/4 games, how likely do you feel cleaning up over card outs is going to be successful here? And, do you think it is worth it?

To be honest, I don't see a lot of 1 pair + A/K kickers folding here. But, it might happen enough to make it worth it. I'm not sure.

[me454555]

I'd rather checkraise the turn here. I don't think you can clean up your out given the size of the pot on the flop and likleyhood of getting a fold. If a blank or spade hits on the turn, then I'd checkraise.

[damaniac]

There are other outs to clean up, knocking out lone clubs and gutshots. Those may well fold for two bets but not for one. I am not sure that this makes the move worthwhile, however, as the number of times this wins you the pot is pretty small. I really prefer to call and re-evaluate. Like you said, most people won't fold a pair at 2/4, which is fine...just don't expect to clean up outs too often.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and I figure I should raise to clear up overcard outs ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Out of curiosity to all those reading:

In the party poker 2/4 games, how likely do you feel cleaning up over card outs is going to be successful here? And, do you think it is worth it?

To be honest, I don't see a lot of 1 pair + A/K kickers folding here. But, it might happen enough to make it worth it. I'm not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wonder about this too. Also, the fact that the people who have us reverse-dominated that we hope to drive out didn't bet the flop themselves does somewhat decrease the chances that they have a pair.

However, getting rid of a hand like T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, if possible, would also increase our chances of winning, and a hand like Q3s would have a 5-out redraw against us on the turn if we catch there.

I don't know. I think I like the checkraise, but I do wonder how much it increases Hero's chances of winning the hand.

Something else to consider is that the A /images/graemlins/club.gif and K /images/graemlins/club.gif outs are more tainted than they would be if fewer people had seen the flop. At the same time, the presence of the club draw might make people more inclined to fold to two cold on the flop.

[coinflip]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd rather checkraise the turn here. I don't think you can clean up your out given the size of the pot on the flop and likleyhood of getting a fold. If a blank or spade hits on the turn, then I'd checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious about the reasoning behind this -- on the turn, it seems like if a blank hits, my equity has gone down while the amount I have to put in on a check-raise goes up. Hence I'd have to succeed way more often for this to be profitable, correct?

[PokerProdigy]

I like the check raise on the flop because it's a big pot and you have two overcards and the backdoor nut flush draw. By going for the check-raise you probably buy a few outs by forcing some hands that would (and should) call the flop for one small bet. Then if you get it heads up with MP3 you have alot of options of how to play the turn depending on what falls, and if you miss the turn and check, MP3 may fear another check raise and let you see the river for free (which is always a beautiful thing with two overcards and out of position /images/graemlins/grin.gif).

[PokerProdigy]

Yeah, I don't think a turn check-raise will be a profitable play.

[PokerProdigy]

But don't you also think that this may be one of those situations where increasing your chances of winning the pot (even if only by a few percent) can make a difference in terms of positive EV?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd rather checkraise the turn here. I don't think you can clean up your out given the size of the pot on the flop and likleyhood of getting a fold. If a blank or spade hits on the turn, then I'd checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

In my opinion, we really need some chance of winning unimproved to make checkraising a turn blank something to consider. And since six players saw the flop, I don't know that we have much chance of winning unimproved.

I don't know. On the turn, if we're behind to a hand that won't fold, we have at best 6 outs after a blank falls on the turn. And while theoretically we could pick up four outs by driving out two different hands that have us reverse-dominated, I think usually the number of outs we'll pick up will be 0-2.

If the hands that we're losing to will fold and we can get heads-up versus, say, a flush draw that the flop bettor fired again with on the turn, then that's worth doing, but I don't know how likely that scenario really is.

Something else to consider is that, once we're still unimproved on the turn, getting rid of one-pair hands that don't have us reverse-dominated and gutshots no longer increases our chances that our hand will hold up if it improves.

[me454555]

I'm not really very much in favor of a turn checkraise either but I'd rather c/r the turn than the flop in this case.

I don't think you have much equity on this flop but.......the pot is pretty big and I want to make a play for it. I don't like risking so much on the flop b/c I dont have a huge pot equity edge and a checkraise may not thin the field and may not clean up any of my outs b/c my outs may not be good. If a blank hits on the turn and mp3 bets out, I may be able this thin the field effectively or buy this pot as it looks like I have just made my hand. Since the pot is big enough, I don't mind so much if I get called by the original bettor b/c I still have outs. By just calling the flop, I can also get away from the it easier if actiion gets heavy on the turn or someone else gets c/rs the flop.

But like I said, the main reason I don't want to c/r the flop is that there are a lot of bad cards and I don't think I have a big enough pot equity to push on the flop.

[me454555]

Look at the size of the pot and number of callers. If everyone calls on the flop, CO would be correct to bet out his flush draw again for value. The pot is big so this move doesn't have to work often and you may have the best hand on the turn UI if you can push out some of the other pairs.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Look at the size of the pot and number of callers. If everyone calls on the flop, CO would be correct to bet out his flush draw again for value. The pot is big so this move doesn't have to work often and you may have the best hand on the turn UI if you can push out some of the other pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that if this will be true a decent amount of the time, then the turn checkraise you're recommending begins to gain atrractiveness.

Checkraising a turn blank is not something I would have considered, and I don't have much experience seeing how well such a play works in a spot like this.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder about this too. Also, the fact that the people who have us reverse-dominated that we hope to drive out didn't bet the flop themselves does somewhat decrease the chances that they have a pair.

However, getting rid of a hand like T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, if possible, would also increase our chances of winning, and a hand like Q3s would have a 5-out redraw against us on the turn if we catch there.

I don't know. I think I like the checkraise, but I do wonder how much it increases Hero's chances of winning the hand.

Something else to consider is that the A /images/graemlins/club.gif and K /images/graemlins/club.gif outs are more tainted than they would be if fewer people had seen the flop. At the same time, the presence of the club draw might make people more inclined to fold to two cold on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very nice reply.

I dont know if you caught it the first time around, but Nate (cleary one of out best posters) had some quality thoughts on it. Here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1884172&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;s b=5&amp;o=)

Its not like we're paired already, and are dying to fold out over cards. We have ace high. In a 6 way raised pot at 2/4 at party, you pretty much need to show down the winner. And I don't think showing down ace high is going to win this pot.

So, raising becomes correct only if:

a) You hit an A or a K
b) You fold out a hand, that would have called one bet
c) Said hand would have went on to beat your pair

We have to look at the product of all of these probabilites, and its probably not a big number.

I'm not saying that raising is wrong. I think the strongest argument here is cleaning up Ac and Kc outs. But, I mean, thats 2/46 = 4% to hit the turn, and we are putting in an extra bet to *possibly* clean up a card we hit 4% of the time?