How are my ROI and ITM stats for 109's

[FatalError]

I've been hammering away at the 109$ SnG's on party with the following results after my first 100 (small sample size, i know)

1st 18
2nd 21
3rd 12
4th 7
5th 14
6th 3
7th 11
8th 3
9th 5
10th 6

ITM% 51%
ROI 68$/SnG or about 64%

Am i at a point where there is probably little more i can do to profit at this level? Should i move to 200s? it seems to me like my distribution of my ITM finishes is ideal, i play aggressively on the bubble and generally finish 2nd or 1st due to haveing one of the 2 deep stacks, i probably have to work a little bit on my heads up game because i'm used to deeper heads up matches on pokerstars once heads up in the SnG

Any input would be appreciated

[citanul]

your sample size is tiny.

move up if you feel like it.

citanul

[Voltron87]

64% ROI is unsustainable. I think you play goot though.

[TheUsher]

I'd kill to have this positive variance right now. It looks like you're my evil twin on Party. Nice to meet you. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ilya]

If you're good enough to beat the $100s then you know that a, your sample size is meaningless and b, that ROI is not sustainable.

So quit bragging.

[FatalError]

i realize that my sample size isn't big enough but i just started playing SnG's as opposed to limit ring games (althought i consider my tournament game preety solid) but aparently i'm an idiot, so what IS a sustainable ROI? 50%? 55%? where should my stats settle out

[TheUsher]

If you're serious, 4-table consistently for the next 6 months and then post again to see if you're still at 50%. I'd say settle out somewhere at 10-15% but then again I'm an idiot. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ilya]

I am sorry if I sounded harsh. I certainly didn't mean to imply you're an idiot or anything like that. It's just that it's very rare to see a "first 100" post unless the player has done very well over that 100.
I do not play the $100s. However my educated guess is that the highest sustainable ROI while 4-tabling or more at that level is in the 20-25% range. Closer to 20% than to 25%. I think eastbay once said that he has maintained a 30% ROI over 500 tournaments, but if I remember correctly, he was not 4-tabling. Also, eastbay is perhaps THE bubble expert on this forum.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
i realize that my sample size isn't big enough but i just started playing SnG's as opposed to limit ring games (althought i consider my tournament game preety solid) but aparently i'm an idiot, so what IS a sustainable ROI? 50%? 55%? where should my stats settle out

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost certainly not that high.

It's really hard to tell where you'll settle out. If you think you have a big edge and you have the roll (say, 30 buy-ins), move up. If you're not sure about either, don't.

eastbay

[codewarrior]

headed for a correction, IMO.

[Mark1808]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're serious, 4-table consistently for the next 6 months and then post again to see if you're still at 50%. I'd say settle out somewhere at 10-15% but then again I'm an idiot. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

At least your an honest idiot!!

[codewarrior]

Short term idiots crush long term winners, short term.

[Umass1985]

He obviously has the roll to move up if he is at 60% ROI (unless hes cashed something out), I'd say try out the 200s.

[Degen]

a sustainable ROI in the 33's is around 30%...it goes down as you go up in levels.

my understanding is that an amazing player in the 100's has an ROI of not much higher than 15-20%...50 or 60% and your head is in the clouds.

Degen

[Umass1985]

If you can sustain that ROI and play 250 SNGs a week you are making 17K a week! Why would you want to move up if you could make 17k a week?

[stupidsucker]

I think your name speaks volumes for this. Your first post is this, and your name is Fatal Error. Perhaps your subconcious is trying to tell you something....

If you are serious about SnGs then instead of moving up you should move down to the 50s and get yourself a 500game sample before even heading back to the 100s.

If your goal is fast$$$$$ only then hit the 200s and cash or crash.
If your goal is challenge then be warry that bankroll management IS indeed half the challenge.
If your goal is Solid Money then play as you wish but keep very mindfull of what variance means.

Dont make a fatal error
dun dunnn DUNNNNNN!

[FatalError]

My impression (maybe i'm wrong here, i'm new to the SnG analysis world) was that ROI is your profit per SnG as a percentage of the total buyin, therefore in a 100$ SnG your ROI is preety much your profit/SnG... is this wrong?

Now i've lurked 2+2 for quite a bit, it's my first post but i'm not green, i've been playing quite successfull for 4 years and have decided to give playing SnG's a shot, i normally play 15/30 and 20/40 and have gotten quite burned out (also this is why i have the bankroll for 100's)

So if my ROI calculation are correct i can expect a crash back to earth here? I don't feel like i'm running all that great in the 100's, i honestly feel like they are VERY easy to beat but maybe i'm indeed wrong.

So if i'm right about my ROI stats i guess i'll get back to the grindstone and come back in a month or so when i have 500 SnG's to post and see if there is anything valuable for me to get from that info

[Donating]

As long as you are including the vig, you are probably calculating it correctly. To give you an idea of the variance, I play the $55s and have a long-term ROI in the mid-twenties. Over 100 SNG samples, my highest ROI is 43.6% and my lowest is -9.1% - and I have what is probably considered to be a low standard deviation (1.67 buy-ins). Also, how many tables are you playing? I four-table and know that I am giving up huge equity on a per-game basis but definitely not on an hourly basis.

[curtains]

Just so you know, my ITM after my first 100-200 $109s was something absurd like 53%. It's not even close to sustainable over the long term, so you might want to play more so you can learn this for yourself.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
If you can sustain that ROI and play 250 SNGs a week you are making 17K a week! Why would you want to move up if you could make 17k a week?

[/ QUOTE ]

To make > 17k a week?

[Degen]

i think you might be calculating it wrong then...because if you had a 60% ROI you'd think it was raining money...

that means that you profit ~$60 for each tourney that you play....so after 100 you should be up ~$6,000.



Degen

[Mr_J]

"So if my ROI calculation are correct i can expect a crash back to earth here?"

Not necessarily. You could be lucky enough to run way above EV forever. You could be unlucky enough to crash and run well below EV forever.

You aren't 'due' for a losing run since each sng result is independent. Just keep hitting them.

[lorinda]

[ QUOTE ]
He obviously has the Troll to move up

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Lori