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ThinkQuick
03-26-2005, 09:15 PM
Well I guess this is the right forum for this...

So assuming I have a 'good player' VP$IP of just under 20%, my question is how many hands should I expect to play (outside of the BB) in one orbit (10 hands)? Maybe this should be: What is the range of this number within 1 SD?

I think I have long stretches where I'm not sure if I'm playing uber-uber tight or if my cards are actually cold. So I'd like to try to play one or two hands an orbit, with a heavy emphasis on playing two...

How dumb is this?

ThinkQuick
03-29-2005, 06:47 AM
Bump? Guess the implications of these calculations aren't as exciting as previously thought.
A little help:

I (think I)calculated the probabilities of getting 0-9 good hands out of 9 hands dealt, with a p=0.2 for getting a good hand.
0 0.134217728
1 0.301989888
2 0.301989888
3 0.176160768
4 0.066060288
5 0.016515072
6 0.002752512
7 0.000294912
8 0.000018432
9 0.000000512

The sum of [these numbers multiplied by their respective data value label] is 1.8 <-- this is the average number of good hands you will get in a 9 hand orbit. (10 hands minus the BB)

Umm.. so the Standard Deviation question. I squared the difference between each data label and 1.8, then multiplied that number by the frequency of that data label happening. I then summed these final values for an SD of 2.261607.
i.e. (0-1.8)^2*0.134217728 + (1-1.8)^2*0.301989888 +...

I have done things correctly here?

hmm retrospectively it looks like it may be too confusing to tell.
I can pm my spreadsheet if someone wants.