10+1 Steal attempt. Agree or disagree.

[Phoenix1010]

Generally loose passive table, no allout calling stations though. I've played a single hand throughout the tourney, early in level 2, and everyone folded around to my standard preflop raise, so I figured I might be getting a little credit.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t3250)
UTG (t805)
MP (t560)
CO (t685)
Hero (t575)
SB (t2125)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls t50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls t50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t575 (All-In)</font>

[Rolen]

Agree

[Apathy]

Not trying to call you out or anything but how could you only have 575 chips if you had only played one han that you won the blinds on? You should take a more honest self evaluating approach to your game, your leaking chips on hands you don't even remember.

Oh and fold this in a 10+1.

[Smackdab]

Disagree.

J10s or off is not something I want to risk a 2:1 or worse with here. No high card power whatsoever. Table is loose/passive? Thats a generalization. Do you have a specific read on the blinds? With their stack sizes where they are they are either LAG or TAG at this stage. LAG prone to gamble it up here with Ax for only 20% of stackIif a TAG calls your probably looking at being a huge dog. Also, either comes over the top you must fold and have lost 25% of your stack. Too early to risk all for very little.

I assume you would attempt the steal with a 3x-4xbb raise?

[curtains]

This is the kind of situation where you usually have to be playing at the table to feel whether it's the right thing to do. I definitely don't think it's terrible.

[DangerGoodson]

Fold. You are risking 575 to win 175. What are you going to be called with that you are a favorite? Roughly 3 out of 4 times you can't be called for this play to work and I dont see that happening, in a loose 10+1 game. Small and big blinds also have large stacks so calls will be more likely from them. UTG limps are sometimes monsters, another reason to fold. Also you have 11.5x the BB so you have time. Make the fish make the mistakes not you.

[Smackdab]

[ QUOTE ]
Not trying to call you out or anything but how could you only have 575 chips if you had only played one han that you won the blinds on? You should take a more honest self evaluating approach to your game, your leaking chips on hands you don't even remember.

[/ QUOTE ]

Want to rethink and reconsider this?

End of round 1 - 2x post sb/bb T90
End of round 2 - 1x post sb/bb 1x won blinds TO
Round 3 - 2x post bb 1x post sb T125

T800 - T215 = T585

[Rolen]

In theory I agree, but I pull this crap all the time and they *NEVER* call at 25/50

[seethe7seas]

Disagree on the push. You will be dominated or 60/40 everytime you are called.

You truly have to know your table well when you have a small, but still playable, stack like this. It is big enough to be allow 'poker' to be played and not small enough to just shove it in yet. Really pay attention to key details. Sure you know in the back of your mind that this table is loose/passive, but rarely does that info help me out when making hard decisions. You need to spot who gives up their blinds easily, who limp/folds to raises, etc. I hope you're not just doing a lot of folding, but actually watching every hand.

Fold the JT. Stealing is read-dependent.

[Smackdab]

[ QUOTE ]
In theory I agree, but I pull this crap all the time and they *NEVER* call at 25/50

[/ QUOTE ]

NEVER is NEVER a certainty. Perhaps one of the math whizzes can run the numbers to see what the EV of this play is long term.

I would run it myself but I'm a leather ass graduate from the school of hardknocks so I tend to keep it simple.

I am not repeat........NOT saying this is a horrible move. Barring a pretty good read on the blinds I am laying these down and waiting for a better spot.

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
Not trying to call you out or anything but how could you only have 575 chips if you had only played one han that you won the blinds on? You should take a more honest self evaluating approach to your game, your leaking chips on hands you don't even remember.

Oh and fold this in a 10+1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure if you're joking. I may have limped on the button in level 1 once, or completed in the small blind and won when it was checked down. Definitely haven't made any noise yet though, except for my one preflop raise.

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. You are risking 575 to win 175. What are you going to be called with that you are a favorite? Roughly 3 out of 4 times you can't be called for this play to work and I dont see that happening, in a loose 10+1 game. Small and big blinds also have large stacks so calls will be more likely from them. UTG limps are sometimes monsters, another reason to fold. Also you have 11.5x the BB so you have time. Make the fish make the mistakes not you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with most of this. Neither the small or big blinds had been playing inordinately loose with their big stacks, so I didn't expect them to call with too many hands with the limpers yet to act.

The limpers themselves had been playing a very loose passive game, so it was a safe bet that they had limped with weak hands to see a flop. UTG limps do indicate monsters from normally aggressive players, but if someone has a very high VPIP, a limp from anywhere can mean anything. The odds of him having a monster were quite small.

As for the safety of my situation, I believe the blinds were going to go up on my BB, so I effectively had about 5 x BB left. There was a large stack to my immediate left, so my chances of pushing in the small blind to steal the big blind would be minute for the rest of the tourney. I needed to make a move on this orbit, and this seemed like a decent enough spot, if not ideal.

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
Disagree.

J10s or off is not something I want to risk a 2:1 or worse with here. No high card power whatsoever. Table is loose/passive? Thats a generalization. Do you have a specific read on the blinds? With their stack sizes where they are they are either LAG or TAG at this stage. LAG prone to gamble it up here with Ax for only 20% of stackIif a TAG calls your probably looking at being a huge dog. Also, either comes over the top you must fold and have lost 25% of your stack. Too early to risk all for very little.

I assume you would attempt the steal with a 3x-4xbb raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

I went all-in, no one's coming over the top of me. If I had a stack deep enough to make a standard raise to steal, I'd limp. the steal attempt was a desparation play, intended to increase my shortstack by about 30%. The reads are important here though, and some general ones are included in my response to DangerGoodson.

[Smackdab]

[ QUOTE ]
increase my shortstack by about 30%

[/ QUOTE ]

For 30% maybe I agree more with the steal attempt but your actual increase is only 15% IF successful.

I know you say you had only played 1 hand up until this point but I assure you at a $10+1 SNG you and only maybe 3 others at the table are aware of this. What almost all will remember though is how often you raised their blinds. Lay it down and the next time you make a steal attempt with a similar holding at a higher blind level they will be even more likely to fold to your raise.

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
increase my shortstack by about 30%

[/ QUOTE ]

For 30% maybe I agree more with the steal attempt but your actual increase is only 15% IF successful.

I know you say you had only played 1 hand up until this point but I assure you at a $10+1 SNG you and only maybe 3 others at the table are aware of this. What almost all will remember though is how often you raised their blinds. Lay it down and the next time you make a steal attempt with a similar holding at a higher blind level they will be even more likely to fold to your raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you're reading the original post. Two players limped in before me. 175 in the pot. 175 is close to 30% of 575.

[Smackdab]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
increase my shortstack by about 30%

[/ QUOTE ]

For 30% maybe I agree more with the steal attempt but your actual increase is only 15% IF successful.

I know you say you had only played 1 hand up until this point but I assure you at a $10+1 SNG you and only maybe 3 others at the table are aware of this. What almost all will remember though is how often you raised their blinds. Lay it down and the next time you make a steal attempt with a similar holding at a higher blind level they will be even more likely to fold to your raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you're reading the original post. Two players limped in before me. 175 in the pot. 175 is close to 30% of 175.

[/ QUOTE ]

AAAAAAA...SO sorry you are correct sir. After further review......I still lay this hand down. Of course I'm an old conservative fart.

BTW.....what did you do? what was the result?

[lastchance]

I fold most of the time, though this is definitely not horrible, and very table-dependent.

[Phoenix1010]

I pushed, the blinds and UTG folded and the second limper called with ATo to knock me out. I still would have posted the hand if I had just stolen the pot, because I think it's an interesting situation.

My thinking:
While the blinds had very large stacks, they had not been playing incredibly loosely. I think it would be very loose to call 11x BB with a less than premium holding with two or three players yet to act behind you, regardless of how big your stack is. I was counting on the limpers to tighten up the calling standards of the blinds. However, since their stacks were huge, there was a significant risk that they would ignore all that and call more loosely than I'd like.

As for the limpers, I think its fair to put the UTG on a fairly large range of hands which include AA and KK, but exclude strong aces and the other high pairs. His calling standards, all things considered, would be the two monsters, maybe AT, and perhaps the higher middle pairs. These represent a small portion of his range of hands, so I figured my chance of folding him to pretty high.

The second limper was also a worry. His range of hands was both wider and lower, since he was invited in by the UTG player's limp, and he would not limp with a strong hand after another limper. However, his calling standards could potentially be wider as well, since he would be closing the action after my push. Still, I thought his calling hands represented only the very small portion at the top of his limping hands, so there was a good chance that both limpers would fold.

When I am called, I am behind, possibly dominated, and my straight possibilities are always going to be hurt by opponent's holdings (I would actually rather make this move with 67s than JTs). Although I will suckout sometimes, I'm counting on winning this pot without a showdown often enough to make it profitable.

Unfourtunately, with four players in, the chance that one of the loose players has a hand he wants to call with is significant. It's a risky play, and probably negative EV. However, given the status of the tournament, I think it was a risk worth taking. As I said, I think I needed to make a move on that orbit, or risk a far less favorable spot later. The extra chips would add a lot to my FE on the next round, and would make my situation a lot less desparate for the rest of the tourney. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a plus $EV play, although I'm welcome to criticism.

-Phoenix

[Smackdab]

Interesting post and discussion. Not sure there is a right or wrong answer in your play here. You apparently put alot of thought in your decision as evididenced by your last post. My style is mostly tight until the later rounds and I consider Level 3 an early round. Sure, would love to have a larger stack when the blinds hit you again but thats almost a full orbit to wake up with a hand yet.

My style is to fold. After considerable thought yours was to push in this instance. I wouldn't be comfortable with that here but you are. If we all played teh same way it would be a boring game.

Thanks for bringing up an interesting topic for discussion. The best thing about the forum is hearing differing views on situations.

Gl to ya

[spentrent]

I'll steal with that almost every time IF I'm in late position AND my raise OPENS the action. UTG's limp makes me concerned, and the second limper puts me on high alert.

In your scenario you're stealing from FOUR people, two of whom have already shown that they "kinda" like their hands.

Essentially, I have to be pretty sure that the guys in the action are even capable of reading the strength that is implied when I push all-in behind two early limpers.