Top Two

Hi all.

You open-raise with AQo from late position. Aggressive player in left of me re-raise. SB fold, but an excellent player in the BB call 2 bets cold. I call. 3 handed.

Flop came Q72 rainbow. BB checks. I bet. Aggressive player fold. BB now check-raise. I call. Turn is an A. He checks. What's my play?

Soh

the flop was QT2 rainbow. sorry...

Soh

[brad]

heh, i was thinking he probably had pocket Tens or something.

i would still bet. maybe he has KK and smooth called.

i dont think you can check because three to a broadway on board.

Keeping with the theory that aggressive play is the way to win you definitely bet out on the turn. You are only worried about pocket AA which I think he bets out on 4th street, so you have to put him on KK, or AK with a check raise bluff on the flop, which is where most players will bluff a check raise. Therefore, you bet out, if he check raises again you call and call on the river. He might check raise with his AK, because he just caught top pair with his bluff on the flop, so an aggressive play would be if he check raises you on the turn, you pop him back and see how he acts. If he raises you with that, you can be 95% sure you are beat with AA. The reason he would not check AA on the turn is he probably figures he will only get 2 big bets regardless so he will bet it out normally.

[Ginogino]

Soh:
What hand would an excellent player coldcall two bets with preflop from the big blind? With AA, KK or QQ, you'd think his natural tendency would be to raise to get an extra 2 small bets into the pot before the flop (since the flop will probably miss one of the other two players, and post-flop you're likely to only have one person calling your raises). And yet you wouldn't coldcall with a drawing hand.

Unless he's playing AA, KK or QQ semi-slow for purposes of variation, he must have some lower pocket pair (JJ or TT), I guess. From his point of view the flop could have missed both you and the aggressive player, especially as both of you are in late position, and if neither of you has a Queen, a checkraise on the flop could chase both of you. (Would you, for instance, have open-raised in late position with AJ, for instance, and if you did what would you do if the BB checkraised the flop?). In this case, he'll fold behind you on the turn.

I'd bet the turn. If he checkraises again, I'd call him down (without holding my breath).

[Eric P]

I agree with the last post. What could he be cold-calling with? i figure with any pocket pair he wants one of you out and a good way to do that is to make the other guy either call 2 cold or fold. Calling with AA has to be a bad move, unless he's doing it for variation, but even still he probably wouldn't do it. If he is calling after so much betting i assume he has suited face cards? AKs or KQs. It's possible for him to have TT or JJ as well, but I think you don't have to be worried about AA here, be worried about TT or maybe even KJs?

[Soh]

> i dont think you can check because three to a broadway on board.

This is a very good point. But what would you do with Q72-A board like I originally posted?

[Soh]

> You are only worried about pocket AA...

I'm also worried about QQ, TT & KJ.

> ...so you have to put him on KK,

He can certainly have KK. But if that's the case, do you want to bet?

> ...or AK...

He can also have AK. But from my limited experience, if AK check-raise bluff on the flop and makes his hand on the turn, he usually bet, especially with the board of possible straight. In addition to that, I bet into a pre-flop three-better, after excellent player called 2 bets out of position. My play is strong, and check-raising THAT with A high gut shot draw is very strong.

> ...if he check raises you on the turn, you pop him back...

I understand that you want to raise your top-two, but what if he has AA, QQ, TT or KJ, all of them are possible hand? You don't want to raise. Even if he has KK, you can't rule out the option of calling as 1) you can get beat on the river 2) he might pay you off on the river if you just call on the turn.

Soh

> You are only worried about pocket AA...

I'm also worried about QQ, TT & KJ.

Here is my arguement against the big blind having either of those three hands. QQ - first it mathematically less likely he has the the two case queens, but more importantly why would he check raise the flop with the absolute nuts on the flop and possibly get rid of the other two players when the big bets are coming on the turn and river, an excellent player is looking to maximize this win. TT - this hand is a little more probable but again I think an excellent player attempts the check-raise on the turn to get more big bets, still a very strong hand, two strong to check raise on the flop and possibly lose you, remember it is heads up now. KJ - highly unlikely an "excellent player" calls two cold before the flop out of position with a marginal holding.

> ...so you have to put him on KK,

He can certainly have KK. But if that's the case, do you want to bet?

Why would you not bet here, you are way ahead, you bet for value, he has six outs, if he doesn't call you take the pot down, why give him a free card to beat you, you bet he calls, on the river 38 out of 44 cards are good for you, you bet again, he must call now hoping you have KQ, and you get the two big bets.

> ...or AK...

He can also have AK. But from my limited experience, if AK check-raise bluff on the flop and makes his hand on the turn, he usually bet, especially with the board of possible straight. In addition to that, I bet into a pre-flop three-better, after excellent player called 2 bets out of position. My play is strong, and check-raising THAT with A high gut shot draw is very strong.

Your play on the flop was strong indicating top pair with K or A kicker, a very good player with AK could do a number of things here on the turn if he hit his check raise semi-bluff not perfectly (a jack would have been perfect). He could throw another check raise, bet it out, or check hoping for a free card and not mind calling a bet if you bet out, therefore you bet out and if he check raises again (which is apparently what you are afraid of of), a re-raise is not out of order.

One thing to remember, his check raise is probably not for value, he could want to see where you are at or get free card on the next round. Another possible holding for the big blind is KQsuited, where his check on 4th street indicates fear of you having an A.

So, results?

What do u think, he thinks u have ?

Could he give u KJs ?
Would have u bet on preflop and on flop with KJs ?

if no
He probably thinks u have AQ or KQ
With TT or QQ u would have reraised on Flop wouldn't u ?
if u bet he will think that u have AQ more than KQ
so if he reraises you're probably beaten.

if yes
he can have anything AA, KK, TT, QQ, AQ, KQ, he thinks
he is probably beaten, so he checks and wait for ur raise
if he reraises u r probably beaten


So i would bet, and wait for his reraise or fold