Is this an easy push?

[Donating]

Party Poker $55 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t4290)
SB (t522)
BB (t634)
UTG (t2260)
Hero (t2294)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t800</font>, Hero...

[Smackdab]

Not sure how easy of a push this is. To me this seems tobe a clear push or fold situation. Given no info provided on UTG I'll have to give him credit for decent play here.

5 handed UTG is no position for a steal here. Raise is only 2x BB to go so he doesn't seem to mind a little action. I put him on a range of hands here of at least 1010 - AA, AJs-AKs, or AK,AQ.

Against medium wired pairs or above your a huge dog. Against any of the other hands small favorite but basically a coin flip situation. Only 5 players remain and 2 are pretty short.

Seems like an easy fold IMO.

[microbet]

Certainly not an easy push, IMO.

If UTG is minraising a lot, then you probably have good FE on him and then maybe it is a good push.

If UTG has been pushing a lot or not playing much, then I think there is a good chance he has something good and you have little FE. I don't think it is a good push.

I think a call here is reasonable. You may invite the button in the hand or even to push, but by the time you get to respond to any raise you will have a lot more info. One or both of the shortstacks will almost certainly call, and if there isn't a raise, UTG will not be likely to bluff at you after the flop.

[Rolen]

I'd say easy fold myself

[proell]

I fold it every time with the two short stacks behind, not to mention thte Chipleader still waiting to act. A call here is just screaming for the Button to push and take a huge pot uncontested.

[Donating]

Thanks for the responses. To me, this is a definite raise-or-fold situation. If people played good, I wouldn't mind calling - but since I've seen more people bluff at dry side pots in SNGs, it's just something I won't do. I have no concerns about the big stack here unless he wakes up with a monster. He can’t come over the top of anybody without a legitimate hand. There are two many people pot-committed for him to think that he can get away with anything.

I think that it's really close, but to me there were a couple of deciding factors: (1) I think I have about zero fold equity and (2) knowing that one and most likely both blinds are going to call should add some legitimacy to the UTG raiser's hand. So I decided to wait for a better spot.

On the flip side, I rate to have the best hand against any reasonable range of hands you put the raiser on. Lately, I feel like I don't have enough gamble in my game. My average finish has remained relatively constant, but my 3rd's, 4th's, and 5th's have gone up noticeably while my 1st's and 2nd's have come down quite a bit. This could just be variance (last 200 or so), but I notice that I am much more careful about putting my chips in the middle in questionable situations. If there was ever a spot to gamble - this is it. If I win the hand, I am heads up with the chip lead.

[Rolen]

Couple of things,

'There are two many people pot-committed for him to think that he can get away with anything.'

Yes, but does HE know that? You think he does, but he might be fully expecting you to both fold.

'Lately, I feel like I don't have enough gamble in my game.'

There's a post somewhere on this forum that basically suggests (through EV) that your advantage calling an allin (which is pretty much what you're doing here, he's not folding if you call/raise) has to be something like 65%. There is almost no way you have that sort of edge, you're almost certainly gonna be in a coinflip situation (bad for both of you) or dominated. I'd stay risk-averse if I were you, unless you feel that a double up here gives you a better-than-100%-better chance of winning the whole thing. If you see what I mean /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Donating]

[ QUOTE ]

Yes, but does HE know that? You think he does, but he might be fully expecting you to both fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

There would be virtually no side pot here so I don't think that there are two people protecting this pot - there are four. If he is on a total steal, hoping for both of us to fold and for him to outdraw one/both of the blinds is pretty optimistic even for the worst of players.

[ QUOTE ]

has to be something like 65%

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there a link to this? It sounds interesting – but I assume that it is highly situational. I think that the difference here is that not only do I get into the money, but I likely guarantee myself 2nd place. This is a huge difference, no? Is it worth the 10% (assuming I’m a 55/45 favorite)?

BTW – what hands do you push here with? AK/99/TT/JJ?

[Smackdab]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW – what hands do you push here with? AK/99/TT/JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Only 3 hands I would consider pushing here....AA, KK and AK.

QQ-JJ I'm gonna call and see what happens on the flop. Granted all under cards come and it then becomes a tough decision if UTG pushes. Call or fold dependent on opponet read.

1010 and lower I'm gonna fold here same as 88. Drop it like its hot!

Your almost a lock to get ITM here. Thats when I loosen up and go for the win. I may very well push here with 88 when ITM to imoprove chip position.

[Phil Van Sexton]

It would appear to be a bet that says "I have a good enough hand to beat the BB's random hand, but it's not good enough to risk my whole stack here." Something like KJ or A7.

Even though that's his plan, he might abandon it once he realizes how much money is in the pot after you push.

If the BB were 300 and min raise 600, I think I'd push. In this case, I'm concerned he's accidently pot committed himself (or has a monster). Fold.

[lastchance]

Ok, how much of his stack did UTG put in?

If UTG is the type of player to have a monster here, it's a easy fold.

I do like pushing here though, but only if you can get UTG to drop about half his hands or so.

Oh, god, UTG put in more than a third of his stack.... I'm with Phil. Tough, tough laydown.

BTW, I push AQ, and QQ, JJ, TT.