Level 3 - AK hand

[Scuba Chuck]

($30+3)
Well, since we're talking so much (or little) about level 3 now, who makes this call?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t480)
CO (t960)
Hero (t855)
SB (t1865)
BB (t850)
UTG (t2120)
MP1 (t870)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t900</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero ......

[curtains]

Yes, your raise is from such a steal position, that your opponent could easily be moving allin with AQ,AJ and even AT sometimes.

[microbet]

Definately a close one. I used to fold here all the time, but recently I went through a period of calling it and have mostly found PPs and lost.

If he has PP &lt; KK, you are 44.9% to win.

$EV
call and win = .209
call and lose = 0
fold = .0978

.449 * .209 = .0855

I think villian is most likely to have PP &lt; KK. He could have AT-Q or he could have AA or KK.

It looks like he has doubled up once already. If he had raised allin with QT and sucked out on someone, I think it might be a good call. Otherwise, I think I'm going back to folding here.

[proell]

I fold this one, unless I have a read on the player that tells me he will push with a larger range of hands than expected. I don't want to call off all my chips on a coinflip vs a small pair. I'd come over the top of any raise with this hand, but don't want to call here.

maybe this is too weak. or too tight... or both! But in general I don't like calling off my chips this early.

[morgan180]

[ QUOTE ]

Yes, your raise is from such a steal position, that your opponent could easily be moving allin with AQ,AJ and even AT sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

[FishBurger]

I think I would call here. If you pokerstove this and put SB on AKo-AQo, AKs-AJs, and AA-77, then you are a 45-55 dog, but since you've already put in 17% of your stack, you might as well go for it.

[microbet]

Look up. I did the ICM with hero as a 44.9% dog. If you are going to defy ICM at this point you should be more inclined to fold, if you have +ROI.

If you want this to be a call you are going to have to expand your range to include AT and maybe worse, and probably be sure not to add lower PPs.

[I'm not considering $/hr, Lorinda /images/graemlins/tongue.gif]

[FishBurger]

[ QUOTE ]
Look up. I did the ICM with hero as a 44.9% dog. If you are going to defy ICM at this point you should be more inclined to fold, if you have +ROI.

If you want this to be a call you are going to have to expand your range to include AT and maybe worse, and probably be sure not to add lower PPs.

[I'm not considering $/hr, Lorinda ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. I just assumed that since hero had already put in 17% of his stack that a call was in order as only a 45-55 dog. Intuitively, it seems weak to fold AKo here. I guess that's why Doyle calls AK "walking back to Houston [from Vegas]."

[curtains]

The hero shouldn't be a 45% dog on average. Plenty of PartyPoker players would reraise from the blind there without a pocket pair.

[microbet]

Not on my computer, don't want to install pokerstove here, but...

FishBurger got a 45% dog going to AQo, AJs. At 45% the ICM wasn't all that close. How broad do you have to make the range to hit the ICM break even? AT? A9? KQ?

[curtains]

Those numbers sound off to me....45% really? I'm going to run it one second.

[curtains]

I got 49% against that range, and I suspect it might be looser, so the Fishburgers calculations seem to have been off.

Note that even if you eliminate AJs from the equation, AKo has equity of 48%. Note also that if you add KQs and AJo, AKo now has 52% equity.

[FishBurger]

[ QUOTE ]
I got 49% against that range, and I suspect it might be looser, so the Fishburgers calculations seem to have been off.

Note that even if you eliminate AJs from the equation, AKo has equity of 48%. Note also that if you add KQs and AJo, AKo now has 52% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I had some dead cards in my calculation from a previous hand calculation that I forgot to remove. Using a range of AA-77, AKs-AJs, and AKo-AQo gives an equity of 52-48 against hero.

Using microbet's previous ICM info gives us 0.48 * 0.209 = 0.10032 EV for calling, which is a little bit better than the 0.978 you get for folding. Considering that the villian might very well think you are stealing and be looser means that calling is prolly the right play here.

[curtains]

btw I got 48.9%, so closer to 49% /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[microbet]

Well, ICM breakeven is at 46.8%. So as long as you include AQ it is probably going to be ok ICM-wise.

An allin reraise with AQ is a pretty agressive move here though. I'd like to have seen something aggressive from him to make this call. If there is any range of hands that really really makes people want to reraise here it is medium pockets.

I really don't know though. I'm going to be thinking about this one.

[FishBurger]

[ QUOTE ]
btw I got 48.9%, so closer to 49%

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you did, because you included AJs, which, even though I said I included, I didn't. Jeez. Sorry for the copious amount of misinformation. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[curtains]

Btw I put the blind on exactly KJ of diamonds.

[FishBurger]

[ QUOTE ]
Btw I put the blind on exactly KJ of diamonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good read.

[valenzuela]

AA &amp; KK are less frequent. AQ is twice more likely than QQ, AJ twice more likely than JJ.

[microbet]

When you put a range in pokerstove it takes into account the number of possible combinations of each hand. At least it better.

[valenzuela]

okey.

[microbet]

For people who are calling, are you only doing this if it is a big stack that pushes (rather than a stack closer to your size)?

Would you do this in the first or second level?

[DaffyDuck]

[ QUOTE ]

Btw I put the blind on exactly KJ of diamonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely a possibility. IMO, people are being WAY to conservative about the range they could put the SB on in the 10's and 20's I play. I put him easily on AA-77, AKs-AJs, KQs-KJs, AKo-AJo, KQo-KJo which makes me almost 3:2. I could even add in lower PPs and I'm 55:45.

Curtains is correct this looks like a steal raise to SB and I'm definitely putting him on a wide range unless he has been playing much tighter then the typical player I see.

Clear call.

[lastchance]

I'd rather call in L1, where it's more likely an idiot can show up.

[Scuba Chuck]

He had AQo, FWIW.

And I too felt that SB thought I was trying to steal raise.

[curtains]

I was joking about the KJs /images/graemlins/smile.gif If he has AQo you should call. Anyway I recommend calling to begin with.

Are sit and go's prize structures really so sick, that you can raise to 3x the BB on the button, get reraised allin for about 4-5x your original raise, and you have to fold AK!!! In basically other form of poker game this would be a ridiculous fold, however of course it becomes a closer decision in the sit and go's.

[Umass1985]

Idk, I don't really ever put the guy on AA or KK here, so I think its a profitable call.

[curtains]

btw UMass I don't ever put them on AA or KK either, but sometimes they have it, and I'm always outraged. However I agree that it's less likely than if they would have raised to about 350-400.

[Scuba Chuck]

IMO, the number of 'suggested' folds is due to the Aleo guideline, which states that in the early levels, level 1-3, AK is an OK hand to push allin with, but is not a good hand to call an allin with. But it's just a guess.

In that respect, level 4 is right around the corner (as it's currently level 3).

But more importantly, I still think SB expected to win the hand right there as he probably saw my bet as an attempted steal. In fact, if you were the SB, would you play it any different? (SB has AQo)

[curtains]

I would probably move allin with the AQ, yes.

[Umass1985]

[ QUOTE ]

btw UMass I don't ever put them on AA or KK either, but sometimes they have it, and I'm always outraged. However I agree that it's less likely than if they would have raised to about 350-400.

[/ QUOTE ]Yeah, I think you want to get paid off alittle bit more than the 125 raise w/ AA or KK. I've seen AA or KK a few times in this spot, the amount of times I've been drawn out by AQ AJ and KQ are countless, I've also seen smaller pocket pairs here. I think 44-QQ is the range I usually see when its a pocket pair.

[curtains]

The other night, I raised to 90 on the button with JJ, BB moves allin for 785, I call and they have KK! This was in something like a $22 or $33 sit and go.

[Umass1985]

[ QUOTE ]

The other night, I raised to 90 on the button with JJ, BB moves allin for 785, I call and they have KK! This was in something like a $22 or $33 sit and go.

[/ QUOTE ]Let me guess it was Party too right? There are some dumbass people there. in a 30 at Paradise the other night something like that happened to me I had KK UTG 6 handed, raised the pot 4BB, and the chip leader a loose maniac went all in w/ AA, I was so shocked when I saw this.

[curtains]

Maybe he is actually a great genius that knows that I'm not going to fold when he overbets the pot by 60x, so he does it with his huge hands!!! I think it was Phil Ivey in the BB.

[Umass1985]

[ QUOTE ]

Maybe he is actually a great genius that knows that I'm not going to fold when he overbets the pot by 60x, so he does it with his huge hands!!! I think it was Phil Ivey in the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]No, it wasn't it was BILL FILLMAFF, just look at his website he will explain his genius to you. http://www.billfillmaff.com/

[curtains]

My sunglasses don't work on the internet. I had a hard time reading his soul.

[Umass1985]

[ QUOTE ]

My sunglasses don't work on the internet. I had a hard time reading his soul.

[/ QUOTE ]Hahahah