Not Raising KK on the Flop [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

Catt

03-26-2005, 12:20 PM

I would appreciate your thoughts on the flop play in this hand.

I have about four orbits at this table.

"Coach" is a table coach, liberally complaining when a "poor" hand beats him but silent as a church mouse when he coldcalls 73s pre-flop, flops a 3, and plays to the river to flop a 7 for the win. He is quite aggressive and will bet any piece of the board, and call even raises to him with a small peice of the board or a weak draw. It appears that he will fold in the face of action if he's got nothing. His stats over only 42 hands are 47.6/23.8/1.6. He has recently lost two hands to Limp RR'er and may be steaming.

"Limp RR'er" has been at the table for one less orbit than me. He is also aggressive and appears to call with bottom pair, bet with second pair, and raise with top pair. He does so even on a very coordinated board. His stats over only 29 hands are 58.6/10.3/0.8.

I have no real read on UTG+1 (at table less than an orbit).

Here is the action:

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1(Limp RR'er) calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB (Coach) calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 (Limp RR'er) 3-bets, Hero caps, BB (Coach) calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1(Limp RR'er) calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
Coach checks, UTG+1 checks, Limp RR'er bets, Hero calls . . .

Thoughts?

stevew

03-26-2005, 12:24 PM

Raise the flop. You ahead of most of the hands an aggressive player would have at that point.

adamstewart

03-26-2005, 01:00 PM

I think this is a very interesting hand... I see reasons for CALLING, and I see reasons for RAISING - and I'm not quite sure yet which I like better.

REASONS FOR CALLING:
- raising the flop does little, if anything, to protect your hand. Those behind you will have at least 9.75:1 money to call, and these odds only improve with each subsequent caller. (Thus, even gutshots have the odds to call when you consider implied odds).
- Regarding limp-reraisers, I like to give a little more credit than most for the possibility of AA or KK. If LRR has AA, then you're very behind, and keeping others in this pot may buffer your losses.
- since raising the flop doesn't really protect your hand, waiting until the turn to raise may be the best play here. Remember, we only profit off of our opponents' mistakes. It will rarely be a "mistake" to call two bets on this flop, even with the weakest of draws.

REASONS FOR RAISING:
- there is a strong possibility that you have the best hand here, so a raise is appropriate.
- even if they have the odds to call, a raise my push the other two out of this pot. You don't want them hitting a lucky two-pair. Hell, even if they realize they have the odds and chase their weak draws, you want to charge them the most possible for it.

Adam

PokerBob

03-26-2005, 02:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would appreciate your thoughts on the flop play in this hand.

I have about four orbits at this table.

"Coach" is a table coach, liberally complaining when a "poor" hand beats him but silent as a church mouse when he coldcalls 73s pre-flop, flops a 3, and plays to the river to flop a 7 for the win. He is quite aggressive and will bet any piece of the board, and call even raises to him with a small peice of the board or a weak draw. It appears that he will fold in the face of action if he's got nothing. His stats over only 42 hands are 47.6/23.8/1.6. He has recently lost two hands to Limp RR'er and may be steaming.

"Limp RR'er" has been at the table for one less orbit than me. He is also aggressive and appears to call with bottom pair, bet with second pair, and raise with top pair. He does so even on a very coordinated board. His stats over only 29 hands are 58.6/10.3/0.8.

I have no real read on UTG+1 (at table less than an orbit).

Here is the action:

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1(Limp RR'er) calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB (Coach) calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 (Limp RR'er) 3-bets, Hero caps, BB (Coach) calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1(Limp RR'er) calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
Coach checks, UTG+1 checks, Limp RR'er bets, Hero calls . . .

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Limp rr may have AA, but I don't think you can give him that just yet. A flop raise doesn't protect you hand, so I have no problem with the call.

Pop the turn if a non A falls and revaluate.

CallMeIshmael

03-26-2005, 02:42 PM

Wait until the turn.

Go from there.

peachy

03-26-2005, 04:28 PM

i would have raised the flop...mainly
to push out weak A's that might hit on the turn or river

if i just call here i get no more information than i already know...so i am raising here...if he 3bets i might slow my calls "later" depending on the board...but im capping right behind him....hes not gettin credit for AA or QQ yet...and if he has AQ good for me so far. But based on what u said about him...i doubt it

but if u didnt raise to keep others in thats another story...
if ur willing to pay the price (them making better hands on the next 2 streets) to keep them in then u gotta be ready to lose

either way...i think at that moment ur probably ahead...its up to u how u wanna pursue it...

ErrantNight

03-26-2005, 05:40 PM

rizzaise.

although i don't think waiting for the turn to raise here would be terrible.

i'm inclined to raise primarily because really, there's not a lot at this point that you're afraid of dropping, and you'd like to know if the Limp RR'er is really that excited about his hand or not, now.

ErrantNight

03-26-2005, 05:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a very interesting hand... I see reasons for CALLING, and I see reasons for RAISING - and I'm not quite sure yet which I like better.

REASONS FOR CALLING:
- raising the flop does little, if anything, to protect your hand. Those behind you will have at least 9.75:1 money to call, and these odds only improve with each subsequent caller. (Thus, even gutshots have the odds to call when you consider implied odds).
- Regarding limp-reraisers, I like to give a little more credit than most for the possibility of AA or KK. If LRR has AA, then you're very behind, and keeping others in this pot may buffer your losses.
- since raising the flop doesn't really protect your hand, waiting until the turn to raise may be the best play here. Remember, we only profit off of our opponents' mistakes. It will rarely be a "mistake" to call two bets on this flop, even with the weakest of draws.

REASONS FOR RAISING:
- there is a strong possibility that you have the best hand here, so a raise is appropriate.
- even if they have the odds to call, a raise my push the other two out of this pot. You don't want them hitting a lucky two-pair. Hell, even if they realize they have the odds and chase their weak draws, you want to charge them the most possible for it.

Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

but i think this says it better than my post.

Catt

03-26-2005, 11:39 PM

Thanks all for your thoughts.

To be honest, I really didn't give any serious thought to Limp RR'er having AA. In my experience this is less common than other hands that get limp re-raised, but more importantly, I felt that Limp RR'er's PFR of 10.8 meant he wouldn't be shy about raising AA straightaway (I know the statistical read was over a very small sample, but if he found 3 raises in 30 hands, I didn't think he'd be shy about raising AA). As indicated in the hand history, I elected to call, intending to let loose on the turn.

At the time I played this, I thought this was a very strong candidate for waiting until the turn because (1) there was no way to protect my hand on the flop, (2) my equity would either improve slightly (or greatly with a K) or degrade significantly (an A or another Q), and (3) it was unclear whether I'd have anyone coming along for an overlay against Limp RR'er's hand if he actually had something like AA or QQ.

When I reviewed the hand after my session, I was a bit less convinced. First, I faced Coach and UTG+1 with 2 cold, but Coach was still getting 13:2 immediately, and 18:4 in the worst case that it got capped and UTG+1 folded out. At those odds and given this action it wouldn't have been much of a mistake to call a five-outer looking for two pair. Of course, if a card like an 8 or a 6 fell, my actions would have protected well against a gutshot. Second, my reads on Coach and LRR indicated that they would be much more likely than your average unknown to call a raise with any piece of the board, even against a pf-capper's raise. The betting / calling on the flop meant that each had some piece of the board.

By the time I got up this morning and thought about it some more, I was back firmly in the camp of "waiting until the turn" because if I had raised the flop and got 3-bet (and called in the hopes of being bet into on the turn), then even if UTG+1 folded, the pot would likely be offering 16:2 or better on the turn if I raised LRR's bet. Given my own back and forth, I obviously posted the hand for feedback.

I would appreciate additional thoughts on the turn, though I think it less interesting than the flop decision. Here is the turn play:

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 (Limp RR'er) calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB (Coach) calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 (Limp RR'er) 3-bets, Hero caps, BB (Coach) calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 (Limp RR'er) calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
Coach checks, UTG+1 checks, Limp RR'er bets, Hero calls, Coach calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
Coach checks, UTG+1 checks, Limp RR'er bets, Hero raises, Coach calls, UTG+1 folds, Limp RR'er 3-bets, Hero caps, Coach calls, Limp RR'er calls.

What do you think of the cap? Too much, or appropriate? My feeling was that I very likely have the best hand (as I felt on the flop), and that in the unlikely event I was behind, Coach was offering a nice overlay that cushions being a mite over-aggressive in these spots (he probably wasn't folding to the cap after putting in 2 cold).

bernie

03-26-2005, 11:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
- Regarding limp-reraisers, I like to give a little more credit than most for the possibility of AA or KK. If LRR has AA, then you're very behind, and keeping others in this pot may buffer your losses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Except you can give them a little less credit when they've done it twice in 3 orbits.

b

drdre2001mm

03-27-2005, 12:07 AM

I think a raise is an absolute must. You said that coach will call with any piece of the flop so why not make him pay for a hand that won't win?

CallMeIshmael

03-27-2005, 12:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
so why not make him pay for a hand that won't win?

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps because he would be correct to call with any piece on the flop (even if we raise) but not on the turn?

Or did that not cross your mind?

drdre2001mm

03-27-2005, 12:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so why not make him pay for a hand that won't win?

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps because he would be correct to call with any piece on the flop (even if we raise) but not on the turn?

Or did that not cross your mind?

[/ QUOTE ]

At no time in the post did I see that coach will fold on the turn if he has a piece of the flop. Please allow me to put on my reading glasses and I will be back tomorrow to re-evaulate my post.

CallMeIshmael

03-27-2005, 12:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
At no time in the post did I see that coach will fold on the turn if he has a piece of the flop. Please allow me to put on my reading glasses and I will be back tomorrow to re-evaulate my post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read TOP. In it, it explains why him NOT folding the turn (when he would be correct to do so) = $$$$ for hero.

I want him to fold one pair on the flop. He wont.
I want him to call my raise on the turn with one pair. He will.

drdre2001mm

03-27-2005, 12:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At no time in the post did I see that coach will fold on the turn if he has a piece of the flop. Please allow me to put on my reading glasses and I will be back tomorrow to re-evaulate my post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read TOP. In it, it explains why him NOT folding the turn (when he would be correct to do so) = $$$$ for hero.

I want him to fold one pair on the flop. He wont.
I want him to call my raise on the turn with one pair. He will.

[/ QUOTE ]

By no means can you assume that coach is going to fold regardless of what you do on the turn. He is going to call with a piece of the flop given the action. Make hime pay not your not guaranteed to gain a turn raise.

bernie

03-27-2005, 12:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
At no time in the post did I see that coach will fold on the turn if he has a piece of the flop. Please allow me to put on my reading glasses and I will be back tomorrow to re-evaulate my post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you making more money or less money by having him call 2 bets on the turn over 2 bets on the flop with his lesser hand? Or are those streets equal in value to you? Especially given the post size in both situations.

b

CallMeIshmael

03-27-2005, 12:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
By no means can you assume that coach is going to fold regardless of what you do on the turn. He is going to call with a piece of the flop given the action. Make hime pay not your not guaranteed to gain a turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm done with this conversation after this post.

A) Read TOP (bust out them reading glasses). You sound like you have no idea what the FTOP even is.

B) There are many valid reasons to raise the flop. (Adam has outlined them for you). One that is invalid is:
"Coach will call your raise on the turn with one pair anyway. So you shouldn't do it because it doesn't protect your hand"

If you dont see why this is invalid, goto A).

Also, the chances of being bet into after just calling are very high here, IMO.

CallMeIshmael

03-27-2005, 12:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Are you making more money or less money by having him call 2 bets on the turn over 2 bets on the flop with his lesser hand? Or are those streets equal in value to you? Especially given the post size in both situations.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't wanna sound like an ass, but I don't think I cant and still get my point across:

I think its a lost cause. At least for now.

me454555

03-27-2005, 01:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
to push out weak A's that might hit on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

This IMO is the best reason to raise the flop. The pot is big and I don't want to give weak As a chance to draw cheaply.

Another reason to raise the flop is to figure out how much limp reraiser like his hand. AA and QQ are some possibilities of limp reraiser and I'd much rather get 3 bet on the flop than on the turn.

CallMeIshmael

03-27-2005, 01:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think of the cap? Too much, or appropriate?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its too much. You have a better read than I do, but I think the three bet means KK is no good.

[ QUOTE ]

My feeling was that I very likely have the best hand (as I felt on the flop), and that in the unlikely event I was behind, Coach was offering a nice overlay that cushions being a mite over-aggressive in these spots (he probably wasn't folding to the cap after putting in 2 cold).

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are behind, it is likely that you have two outs. For raising to be correct, you need 23 other players in the pot.

Catt

03-27-2005, 02:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My feeling was that I very likely have the best hand (as I felt on the flop), and that in the unlikely event I was behind, Coach was offering a nice overlay that cushions being a mite over-aggressive in these spots (he probably wasn't folding to the cap after putting in 2 cold).

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are behind, it is likely that you have two outs. For raising to be correct, you need 23 other players in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was referring to those situations similar to this one (and not this one in isolation) where you're likely ahead but not sure that you are. Instead of risking 1 bet to win 1 bet, we're risking 1 bet to win 2 bets. If two were along for the ride, we're risking 1 bet to win 3 bets. We need be less certain we are ahead in such situations to justify a raise, depending upon how many others are along for the ride.

But, yes, if I am actually behind here, a raise never makes sense unless I have 23+ callers and my outs are to the nuts.

CallMeIshmael

03-27-2005, 02:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I was referring to those situations similar to this one (and not this one in isolation) where you're likely ahead but not sure that you are. Instead of risking 1 bet to win 1 bet, we're risking 1 bet to win 2 bets. If two were along for the ride, we're risking 1 bet to win 3 bets. We need be less certain we are ahead in such situations to justify a raise, depending upon how many others are along for the ride.

But, yes, if I am actually behind here, a raise never makes sense unless I have 23+ callers and my outs are to the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is good thinking, but I still have to disagree because of the exact situation....

The number 23 is kind of significant here...

If you were in a situation where someone who 3-bets could have, say, only 2 pair, then the reraise wouldnt be anyhwere near big a mistake WHEN you are behind. You have a much more significant amount of equity. I mean, you only need to have 5 players in the pot to intiate new money with an 8 outter.

But, since here it is likely that when you are behind you only have 2 outs, you have so little equity in the extra bets you put in, the overlay that you get from the coach isnt enough to make up for how much you are giving to the LRR.

But, I have to stress, that you probably feel your hand is best far often than I do. Simply because of your read.

Catt

03-27-2005, 02:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you were in a situation where someone who 3-bets could have, say, only 2 pair, then the reraise wouldnt be anyhwere near big a mistake WHEN you are behind. You have a much more significant amount of equity. I mean, you only need to have 5 players in the pot to intiate new money with an 8 outter.

But, since here it is likely that when you are behind you only have 2 outs, you have so little equity in the extra bets you put in, the overlay that you get from the coach isnt enough to make up for how much you are giving to the LRR.

But, I have to stress, that you probably feel your hand is best far often than I do. Simply because of your read.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are losing me here.

Unless our opponent shows us his cards, we don't know whether we are ahead or behind, we can only make informed guesses. I don't agree that if I am behind I must be drawing to 2 outs, but as you correctly point out, that is largely based on my reads (which I tried to convey accurately in the original post).

Are you saying that we are behind here often enough, and when we are behind we are drawing to 2 outs, that the dead money (presumably dead, anyway) of Coach does not have any effect (or a very, very marginal effect) on our raise / call decision?

balt999

03-27-2005, 02:47 AM

With that many players still in a raise on the flop is paramount, to try a knocked out the potential draws

balt999 journal about poker and life...check it out (http://www.livejournal.com/users/balt999/)

CallMeIshmael

03-27-2005, 02:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You are losing me here.

Unless our opponent shows us his cards, we don't know whether we are ahead or behind, we can only make informed guesses. I don't agree that if I am behind I must be drawing to 2 outs, but as you correctly point out, that is largely based on my reads (which I tried to convey accurately in the original post).

Are you saying that we are behind here often enough, and when we are behind we are drawing to 2 outs, that the dead money (presumably dead, anyway) of Coach does not have any effect (or a very, very marginal effect) on our raise / call decision?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I'm rereading my last post, and it was unclear at best. It was late. Anyways... a little bit of ye old maths never hurt anyone...

Lets assume that when you are behind, you have 2 outs (I don't think we disagree here.) Also, lets say on average there are 9 cards that can beat you when you are ahead. I'm not sure on this, but I think with two players in the pot it is a reasonable estimate. (Saying that coach is dead money is a mistake, IMO. I don't see a lot of players drawing dead against KK here calling 2 cold. Though it does happen).

Reraising when behind is a mistake on the order of:

3 BBs go into the pot. 1BB of which is yours. You expect to gain (2/46)*3BB = 0.13BB.

1-0.13 = 0.87BB mistake.

Calling when ahead is a mistake on the order of:

3BBs go in the pot. 1BB of which is yours.

You expect to gain (46-9)/46*3BB = 2.41

2.41BB - 1BB = 1.41BB mistake.

To determine frequencies needed for this play to be 0EV, the system of equations yields:

x0.87 - y1.41 = 0
x + y = 1

In the end, you need to be 38% sure you have the best hand for raising to be OK.

Without coach in the hand and the assumption that you have 2 outs when behind, and he has 5 when you are ahead, you need to be 52% sure. Yes, coach does make the reraising more attractive, but I don't think you can be 38% sure you have the best hand. You've been limp-reraised, and then 3-bet on a big street. That seems to scream of power, and you can't beat a lot of power here (AQ, of course is a nice option).

Again, like I said before, our differences in opinion might stem from how often we think our hand is good. Do you think you are good 38+% of the time here? If so, then the raise is +EV. You have better reads than I do.

(Disclaimer: I've never done a hand analysis like the one above before, so its very likely that I made a mistake. If anyone sees one, please tell me. I'd rather not continue to make it)

CallMeIshmael

03-27-2005, 02:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With that many players still in a raise on the flop is paramount, to try a knocked out the potential draws

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying that waiting until the turn is mandatory, or even the right play. I'm not.

What I will say is that your reasoning above is flawed: you can use this logic on ALL hands in which it is correct to wait for the turn.

The best reason to pop the flop here, IMO, is for information from the LRR, which could be a lot more costly on a big street (which, FWIW it seems like it was). Without this consideration, I would say this is a pretty good wait for the turn type spot.

LinusKS

03-27-2005, 03:15 PM

I don't like the flop call at all.

If you knew for a fact you were behind here - that the LRR had exactly AA or QQ, the call is correct.

But I think you need to put him on a wider range of hands than that.

With a 58% vpip, there's bound to be a lot of hands in the deck that he likes, certainly KK, probably AKs and QQ, maybe AKo or even AQs.

There's 6 AA, 1 KK, 2 AKs, 6 AKo, 3 QQ, and 3 AQs after the flop.

If this is a reasonable range of hands to put the LRR on, you're behind 9/21, 1/21 to be tied, and 11/21 to be ahead.

I think you're slightly better off than that, though, since if he limp-reraised QQ, he probably slow-plays it on this flop, and because there's at least a small possibility he might hold AQo, which adds 9 more to the times you're ahead.

If you're ahead, you should bet.

Also, betting here may help define his hand. If he calls, you can be pretty sure you're ahead - he's unlikely to have any hand, other than AK.

On the turn, I'm fine with the raise, although I'd prefered you'd done it on the flop, but I'm not sure I cap this. That might just be cause I'm a pansy, though.

The 3-bet makes it more likely, I think, that he as one of the hands that beat you, but - you're right, that the presence of the coach makes a cap more correct, since you don't have to be right even fifty percent of the time to make a cap correct in this instance.

My read is you're slightly more likely to be behind, given how you played it, and the 3-bet, than you are to be ahead, since I don't think he 3-bets AK, and that takes a lot of equity out of your hand.

If you eliminate the AK, you're down to the 6 AA, 3 QQ, 1 KK, and 3 AQs, which is 9:1:3. You'd need to have him limp-reraising with AQo pretty often to make capping correct.

CallMeIshmael

03-27-2005, 03:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the flop call at all.

If you knew for a fact you were behind here - that the LRR had exactly AA or QQ, the call is correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are aware that, given the size of the pot, they could turn over their hands showing you that you have the best hand, and not raising the flop could still be correct, right? Raising is not ALWAYS correct, even when you are quite certain you have the best hand.

Again, I'm not saying that waiting is correct. I'm just saying its something to think about here.

Catt

03-28-2005, 12:16 AM

This is, IMHO, a very good discussion, and I'm glad this post has generated a lot of good back and forth.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyways... a little bit of ye old maths never hurt anyone...

[snip]

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, I didn't think of doing this sort of analysis and it is helpful.

[ QUOTE ]
. . . but I don't think you can be 38% sure you have the best hand. You've been limp-reraised, and then 3-bet on a big street. That seems to scream of power, and you can't beat a lot of power here (AQ, of course is a nice option).

Again, like I said before, our differences in opinion might stem from how often we think our hand is good. Do you think you are good 38+% of the time here? If so, then the raise is +EV. You have better reads than I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think herein lies the frustrating, but interesting, crux of the matter. How do we evaluate the somewhat limited reads and how much weight should our analysis bear on the hand? The reads I had at the time of the hand are just about completely relayed in the OP -- I can't say that I have any additional reads or insights myself although I obviously witnessed the previous hands played that formed the basis of the reads provided (though I don't recall any specifics beyond the notes taken).

Here again is the read on Limp RR'er:

[ QUOTE ]
"Limp RR'er" has been at the table for one less orbit than me. He is also aggressive and appears to call with bottom pair, bet with second pair, and raise with top pair. He does so even on a very coordinated board. His stats over only 29 hands are 58.6/10.3/0.8.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps I am giving too much weight to the read here. But this read tells me: (1) it's not super likely that he has AA; (2) he could be betting and raising a Q for top pair; and (3) if I'm behind I could have more than 2 outs, since I can see a limp re-raise with something like Q9s. I'm not saying all or even each of these are significantly more likely than not, but they are not out of the realm of reasonable possibility. In short, I think I am ahead here more than 38% of the time (but, before you did the math, I thought I needed to be "less sure" that I was ahead to make capping attractive -- this thread has me rethinking that).

Because of the weight I'm giving the reads, I also don't think a flop raise would give me any real actionable information on LRR's hand, so I wouldn't raise the flop for that reason (I still think the best reason for raising the flop is having enough confidence I am ahead to push my presumed edge while I am ahead, and to a lesser degree, the chance that facing Coach and UTG+1 with two cold will induce incorrect folds when they have proper odds to call).

Catt

03-28-2005, 12:31 AM

Another nice analysis. Thanks. I agree that we should be giving him a pretty wide range of hands even after the LRR and the flop bet.

[ QUOTE ]
If you're ahead, you should bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is correct, either generally or in this specific instance. There are times when, even with a high degree of confidence that we are ahead, a raise is not always correct. This hand post and thread is largely an attempt to evaluate whether this particular hand is one such instance or not -- KK is a pretty strong hand obviously, but we could conceviably have TT or JJ and be ahead on the flop - but in that case a flop raise is much less attractive, IMHO, even though we're currently ahead.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, betting here may help define his hand. If he calls, you can be pretty sure you're ahead - he's unlikely to have any hand, other than AK.

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I just posted above (you haven't had a chance to read it yet) my view that raising isn't likely to generate "good" actionable information -- given the read, if he 3-bets the the flop, do I conclude I am behind and fold the turn UI? I couldn't give such importance to a flop 3-bet from this Villain. And if he just calls, while I agree it then appears more likely that I am ahead, it probably also means that I have lost the chance to collect 2 bets from him and Coach on the big streets.

Hope it doesn't appear that I am wedded to my play in this hand ('cause I am not) or that I am being argumentative / defensive on the play -- I agree with a bunch of the thoughts / analysis / advice in the thread and really only responding to those points with which I am in less agreement, for the sake of flushing out my own thinking and exposing it to the forum for correction. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

CallMeIshmael

03-28-2005, 12:56 AM

Nice post.

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This is, IMHO, a very good discussion, and I'm glad this post has generated a lot of good back and forth.

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I agree.

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Thanks, I didn't think of doing this sort of analysis and it is helpful.

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Not a prob. It was helpful for me too.

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I think herein lies the frustrating, but interesting, crux of the matter. How do we evaluate the somewhat limited reads and how much weight should our analysis bear on the hand? The reads I had at the time of the hand are just about completely relayed in the OP -- I can't say that I have any additional reads or insights myself although I obviously witnessed the previous hands played that formed the basis of the reads provided (though I don't recall any specifics beyond the notes taken).

Here again is the read on Limp RR'er:

[ QUOTE ]
"Limp RR'er" has been at the table for one less orbit than me. He is also aggressive and appears to call with bottom pair, bet with second pair, and raise with top pair. He does so even on a very coordinated board. His stats over only 29 hands are 58.6/10.3/0.8.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps I am giving too much weight to the read here. But this read tells me: (1) it's not super likely that he has AA; (2) he could be betting and raising a Q for top pair; and (3) if I'm behind I could have more than 2 outs, since I can see a limp re-raise with something like Q9s. I'm not saying all or even each of these are significantly more likely than not, but they are not out of the realm of reasonable possibility. In short, I think I am ahead here more than 38% of the time (but, before you did the math, I thought I needed to be "less sure" that I was ahead to make capping attractive -- this thread has me rethinking that).

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Then I like it. When I see an AF of 0.8, and a 3-bet on a big street, I *tend* to think one pair isn't likely to be good. But, as you have said, you've seen these other hands that I haven't. You know more than we do. If you think you are ahead 38+% of the time (and even less if, as you said, he could have two pairs) then cap it.

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Because of the weight I'm giving the reads, I also don't think a flop raise would give me any real actionable information on LRR's hand, so I wouldn't raise the flop for that reason

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I dig it. I've said before that I think the best reason to raise the flop is for information. If you feel there is no information to be had, then I like a turn raise even more.

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the chance that facing Coach and UTG+1 with two cold will induce incorrect folds when they have proper odds to call.

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I really really don't dig it. Someone who you describe as calling down with any piece, isn't about to fold a hand that is live to KK when he is CORRECT to fold, let alone making and INCORRECT fold.

Also, I've read your other reply, and I'm diggin that.

I think that, in this case, if the LRR turned over AQ and the coach turned over some other one pair hand, I would still be inclined to wait (I havent done the math yet, but if they turned over AQ and some one pair hand, and the LRR told me he would 3-bet my raise, then the cap you get on the flop might be worth it). Just because you would be making so much on coach's turn mistake (read bernie's post in this thread if you havent already).

Anyways... nice hand... and, I'm curious on the results

Catt

03-28-2005, 04:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
When I see an AF of 0.8, and a 3-bet on a big street, I *tend* to think one pair isn't likely to be good.

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Keep in mind that the actual "aggressiveness" indicated by the AF is mightily influenced by the VPIP. Since AF is (bet % + raise %) / call % -- betting and raising enough to get a 2.5 AF when one sees >60% of all flops is betting and raising a crapload of very, very marginal hands (or it is folding to any bet on most flops, a discipline very few 60% VPIPers have).

Having a post-flop aggression of 2.5 with a 20% VPIP is agressive; having a post-flop aggression of 2.5 with a 60% VPIP is usually very, very, aggressive / maniacal. I haven't ever taken the time to try and rationalize the AF against VPIP, but with a ~60% VPIP, I think an AF of 0.8 is pretty aggressive (I noted that I thought his play was aggressive in the reads).

[ QUOTE ]
Anyways... nice hand... and, I'm curious on the results

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Results generated much better reads on my two opponents than I had when I played the hand. River comes 2 non-spade (no flush). Coach checks; Limp RR'er bets into me (after I had capped the turn); I start swearing at my laptop and muttering that "no AA no QQ" and call the river bet; Coach screams into the chatbox "OPEN-ENDED AND NOTHING. I NEVER HIT A HAND" after I call; he then folds and types into the chat box "6,5." LRR turns over AQo and MHIG. I went back to my notes after this hand and added something to the effect "will 3-bet / call cap, lead big streets with TPTK against PF-capper playing like an overpair." Interestingly, Coach didn't have an open-ended straight draw, but he did have a gutshot on the flop and a double-gutter on the turn (assuming he really had 65). Had I raised the flop he wouldn't have had pot odds to call but would, IMHO, have had adequate implied odds, and, IMHO, would defintiely have called regardless given his playing style.

LinusKS

03-28-2005, 04:06 PM

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You are aware that, given the size of the pot, they could turn over their hands showing you that you have the best hand, and not raising the flop could still be correct, right? Raising is not ALWAYS correct, even when you are quite certain you have the best hand.

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In the situation where you know you can make more money by waiting for a later street, yes, you should wait.

But where you think you're ahead, but someone has a draw to beat you, you generally want to charge as much as possible for each card.

My read on the flop would have been that this is an example of the second case.

LinusKS

03-28-2005, 04:12 PM

Limp-reraising AQo... nice. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

CallMeIshmael

03-28-2005, 04:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My read on the flop would have been that this is an example of the second case.

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What is your read on the flop?

CallMeIshmael

03-28-2005, 04:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind that the actual "aggressiveness" indicated by the AF is mightily influenced by the VPIP. Since AF is (bet % + raise %) / call % -- betting and raising enough to get a 2.5 AF when one sees >60% of all flops is betting and raising a crapload of very, very marginal hands (or it is folding to any bet on most flops, a discipline very few 60% VPIPers have).

Having a post-flop aggression of 2.5 with a 20% VPIP is agressive; having a post-flop aggression of 2.5 with a 60% VPIP is usually very, very, aggressive / maniacal. I haven't ever taken the time to try and rationalize the AF against VPIP, but with a ~60% VPIP, I think an AF of 0.8 is pretty aggressive (I noted that I thought his play was aggressive in the reads).

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Good point. I've thought about this correlation before. If you ever look into it, post the info!

[ QUOTE ]
Results generated much better reads on my two opponents than I had when I played the hand. River comes 2 non-spade (no flush). Coach checks; Limp RR'er bets into me (after I had capped the turn); I start swearing at my laptop and muttering that "no AA no QQ" and call the river bet; Coach screams into the chatbox "OPEN-ENDED AND NOTHING. I NEVER HIT A HAND" after I call; he then folds and types into the chat box "6,5." LRR turns over AQo and MHIG. I went back to my notes after this hand and added something to the effect "will 3-bet / call cap, lead big streets with TPTK against PF-capper playing like an overpair." Interestingly, Coach didn't have an open-ended straight draw, but he did have a gutshot on the flop and a double-gutter on the turn (assuming he really had 65). Had I raised the flop he wouldn't have had pot odds to call but would, IMHO, have had adequate implied odds, and, IMHO, would defintiely have called regardless given his playing style.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. Just wow, with AQo and 65. Very nice hand. Excellent read on the turn!