$30+3 - Very difficult bubble hand

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t440)
UTG (t2425)
Hero (t1595)
SB (t3540)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t500</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ....... </font>,

The poll we've all been waiting for:

[curtains]

I definitely move allin. You have a powerhouse, and reasonable folding equity. I know it's painful when you bust here, as you will some of the time, but way too often you are going to be a 70%+ favorite against your opponent's hand.

[OPJayhawk]

I think the right play here goes against one of the "Rules of thumb" that you see here alot.

If you push all in the BB is going to release his hand most of the time. UTG now has odds to call to you and will do so most of the time especially with the BB with only 200 chips left. Even if you beat him he is still likely to take third.

The play here I think is too flat call the $500 and see if you hit the flop. When you flat call - now the BB has a tougher choice - he can call all of his chips too and face a possible 3 way check down or he can release and hope UTG busts you.

If the BB folds and you miss the flop and UTG leads into you you will prolly have to release your hand.

I know putting in 1/3 of your stack and then releasing it goes agasint what you usually read here, but I think in this case it is the right play.

PacmanFL

[nWirb]

Looks like the UTG wants to put the BB all in with a good king KJ+ or most likely a decent ace like A7.
I'd push here.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the right play here goes against one of the "Rules of thumb" that you see here alot.

If you push all in the BB is going to release his hand most of the time. UTG now has odds to call to you and will do so most of the time especially with the BB with only 200 chips left. Even if you beat him he is still likely to take third.

The play here I think is too flat call the $500 and see if you hit the flop. When you flat call - now the BB has a tougher choice - he can call all of his chips too and face a possible 3 way check down or he can release and hope UTG busts you.

If the BB folds and you miss the flop and UTG leads into you you will prolly have to release your hand.

I know putting in 1/3 of your stack and then releasing it goes agasint what you usually read here, but I think in this case it is the right play.

PacmanFL

[/ QUOTE ]


This might be a possible line.

[valenzuela]

What happens if SB decides to rock n roll( in other words push)

[john_]

I played a hand similiar to this one UTG with AQo. They flat called, BB folded and I pushed the ragged flop.

I'm torn between flat calling and pushing...I guess it would depend on my read of the player.

[J-Lo]

I thinkk thats why this is a clear push. If i was UTG, i would be raising w/ many hands, any A, and K, 2 cards bigger than T, any pocket pair, etc... so there are many more hands u dominate than dominate you. I think he's putting too much of his stack on the line to call here w/o a premium hand-- the only reason i feel this is a push rather than call--&gt; checkdown, is because SB should push many hands here if he feels there is much FE.

[Scuba Chuck]

Well, I pushed this hand. Villain flipped over pocket tens. It made me think that calling was a better answer.

What's most interesting to me is that of all my posts, this one is getting so little face time. I've had a few posts in the past in a similar scenario, with a hand of lesser value, and the most common answer then would be, "EZ fold, but if this was an AK, then that would be a more difficult decision."

Is it really that clear of a push? Perhaps I should have included a Stop-n-go as one of the options. AK is still a drawing hand right?

In terms of hand ranges villain calls me with, IMO, minimally, 50% of the hands in the range will be pairs.

[lastchance]

Calling seems to be awesome here, especially as you have AK (which either hits or misses) and not some weaker hand that will hit second pair or something or other.

[Degen]

i played with you the other day Scuba...i'd said hi in the chat box...we were four handed, and i wanted to comment here, and this seems the perfect opportunity...YOU PLAY WAY TOO TIGHT ON THE BUBBLE!!!

In our tourney you blinded down from a solid stack to about 1200 and then busted 4th when you finally made a stand to somebody else's move.

Meanwhile i gobbled up all the blinds and built a monster chiplead and took down the tourney. Going into 4 handed play we were about even.


You should not be playing to get 3rd...you should be playing to win. If the money means that much to you then drop down to the $22's or $11's until you build a suitable bankroll.


So what if you lose 4th making a move. Big deal. Thats poker. You'll win a hell of a lot more and best of all, when you do get a monster, you can min-raise it and have somebody fully tilted and push you in with your AA.


Degen

P.S. This is the easiest push in the history of SNG's.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. This is the easiest push in the history of SNG's.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not true at all.

I think I'd push. However, this is one play that is EXTREMELY read dependent. At least to me.

If this guy raises often, and would fold many hands to a push, than it's an easy push.

If he only makes this raise with 99+, AQ+, and will call the push, then pushing is silly. I'd call here.

There are tons of scenarios which impact this decision. But I usually push.

-Jman28

[AnyTwoCanLose]

Pushing here seems way too aggresive to me. You have to remember that you are playing a tournament, and the chips you gain are worth less than the chips you lose.

A lot of it is read dependent... against typical push-monkeys like those arguing all-in, I'd go all in.

Calling seems ideal, though folding is acceptable.

The more I think about it, I like calling. Play against 2 players and wait and see what the flop brings. If an A or K hits... you get paid if either of them have an A or K or a PP.

Going all-in just gets you called with better hands and the lesser hands fold.

[Degen]

Late tourney, blinds are huge. Push everything.

Degen

[Degen]

So you think AQ and AJ fold here? What about KQ and KJ...i've been called with much worse.

Degen

[AnyTwoCanLose]

There's certainly some hands that I'd go allin if I knew that the other fellow had them.

The major factor in my not wanting to go all-in is that there's a guy with only 400 chips.

Let 'em bust.

(That's the way it seems to me. It depends on the player you are facing)

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
Late tourney, blinds are huge. Push everything.

Degen

[/ QUOTE ]

Reread my above post. Do you disagree that there are players you shouldn't push against?

-Jman28

[ilya]

Push. I'm guessing UTG has something reasonable, as he figures the BB will call. Great! Since he probably has something reasonable, you're quite likely to be dominating him. Not only that, but he's liable to fold live hands like QT, and call with severely dominated hands like AQ and AJ. So, why not let him do that?

Also...ok, say you push. Ignore the SB for a second. Now the BB either calls or folds. If he calls, you're in good shape since you've only got to beat one of your two opponents to survive/make money. If BB folds, UTG is gonna be looking at calling off a huge chunk of his stack when there's a guy to his right with 225 chips left. Not unreasonable to suppose that this may persuade him to fold some small pairs.

[ilya]

You can't stop-and-go here, you're not gonna be first to act on the flop.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
though folding is acceptable.

[/ QUOTE ]

i could disagree more, but that would be a LOT of disagreeing.

[viennagreen]

even if 50% of the hands he calls you with are pairs, and you end up being in a coinflip situation--- consider what percentage of the time he folds?

[Phil Van Sexton]

I call.

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]

I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this actually. Call, and if A or K falls on the flop, all in, if not, bail out if he bets and still have a lead over the 4th place player in chips.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this actually. Call, and if A or K falls on the flop, all in, if not, bail out if he bets and still have a lead over the 4th place player in chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

In addition, I want the BB come along too. If the raiser ends up taking me out, I want the BB to go down with me, so I get 3rd.

[1C5]

Exactly, even better if that happens.

[shejk]

I can see both calling and pushing here. That said, I'd usually push.

As someone said earlier, it's read dependent. Besides that, I guess it'd depend on playing style. Here, I'll probably have pushed a few times already, so I should be liable to get calls from all sorts of aces.

The more I think about it though, the more I'm leaning towards calling. From first read to last sentence I've gone from say 95% push to 55%.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this actually. Call, and if A or K falls on the flop, all in, if not, bail out if he bets and still have a lead over the 4th place player in chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

In addition, I want the BB come along too. If the raiser ends up taking me out, I want the BB to go down with me, so I get 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a $33, I don't think you're increasing the chances of BB coming along all that much by just calling.

If he does come along after you call, you've just put 500 into a pot that he might win, and that you will give up most of the time (if UTG checks to you, semi-bluffing in position will have much less value since you'll still have to beat BB). If you fold postflop and BB does win the pot, you will be the new shortstack. If you fold postflop and UTG wins the pot, you will go into the money with just 1/8th of the chips in play. 3x fewer than you would have if you'd pushed and beaten UTG!

Also, UTG is much more likely to call you preflop with KQ/KJ than he is to call you on an Ace-high flop. He's also more likely to call you preflop with AQ-AT than he is to call you on a King-high flop. So you're missing out on a lot of chips when you just call instead of pushing and letting him call you with dominated hands preflop.

[Scuba Chuck]

Degen here has all the answers. In fact, his posts with me are extremely pompous. What makes this post even more so is that he has the audacity to sit at a table with me, and play against me without me knowing (which is fine by the way). Then uses the same (or similar) bubble tactics as I intend to. Knowing that I will fold to pressure. Then, when I am faced with a difficult decision, where I have the opportunity I am dealt a crummy hand like say 62, and he has the balls to tell me I'm too tight.

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. This is the easiest push in the history of SNG's.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, unbelievably arrogant.

Give me your Party Poker handle. I go look through my HHs, and we can analyze this bubble play over the forum if you'd like.

[Scuba Chuck]

Well, I don't know what the right play is, as I pushed and lost on this hand. What this hand is making me think about is do I want to put $$$ on the line for a draw when I don't have to. This play will do one of two things. It will likely give me first place, or put me out. If I had a crummy hand, and folded, IMO, it would have very little affect on my ability to still challenge first.

[Degen]

if you think it will A: give you the win or B: put you out...and if you think these two options are equally likely...it should be an easy call.

Degen

[Degen]

just tryin to help you out man...you don't want the advice i wont give it

Degen

[Degen]

if he is a VERY tight player and only opens with Group 1 hands then fine, i'd call and play the flop as it should be played. though while 4-tabling its quite hard to get reads like this all the time. i push this 90% of time time or more and it works quite well...its late tourney, i'd say they'll fold 1/2 the time, call 25% of the time with a had i destroy and call 20% of the time with a hand i'm a coin-flip to, and then there is that 5% of the time i'm destroyed.

I'll take those odds.

Degen

[Degen]

by the way...6 2 is one of my fav stealing hands on the bubble /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
if you think it will A: give you the win or B: put you out...and if you think these two options are equally likely...it should be an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

So now you're supporting a call rather than a push?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
even if 50% of the hands he calls you with are pairs, and you end up being in a coinflip situation--- consider what percentage of the time he folds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you give me the percentage of the time he folds, and I'll do the ICM numbers.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
if he is a VERY tight player and only opens with Group 1 hands then fine, i'd call and play the flop as it should be played. though while 4-tabling its quite hard to get reads like this all the time. i push this 90% of time time or more and it works quite well...its late tourney, i'd say they'll fold 1/2 the time, call 25% of the time with a had i destroy and call 20% of the time with a hand i'm a coin-flip to, and then there is that 5% of the time i'm destroyed.

I'll take those odds.

Degen

[/ QUOTE ]

Group 1 hands? There is no one on this planet that will only open with group 1 hands in a 4 handed game here.

[Degen]

LOL then there is no one on this planet i would not push all-in right here...its a $30 tourney for chrissake...you either take the pot as it stands, double up and win or you lose.


Next tourney please.


Degen

[Degen]

he folds 40%-60%


Degen

[Degen]

sorry, wrong word...i meant its an easy 'decision'


Degen

[kevstreet]

I would have pushed as well. Although calling seems like a reasonable play and the arguments above have almost persuaded me to change my mind. The question is certainly more confounding than at first glance.

Scuba, I lost two huge hands w/ <font color="red"> A</font>nna <font color="red"> K</font>ournikova in a multi this weekend. She looks good, but doesn't win as often as we'd like!

[rickw]

I just went through a very similar situation in a 10+1 this weekend w/ the following details (I posted this in a separate thread but thought this thread had some good discussion):

$10+1 Party NL Holdem tournament.

Blinds are 150/300; 4 players left

I'm on button w/ about 2500.
Bigstack is utg w/ approx. 3800; he's been a superlucky calling station, calling allins w/ axo;kxo, etc. and getting lucky when dominated.

SB has about 60 chips left after posting 150. Weak Tight

BB has about 1200 chips left after posting 300. Tight.

Bigstack raises to 600; I'm looking at ako;

If I push I figure there's a 30% chance utg folds, a 40% chance he calls w/ crap, a 20% chance it's a coinflip and a 10% chance I'm dominated. Would this be an easy push even though you're looking at the SB about to be eliminated? (I thought so at the time on the theory, go for the win . . .)

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
he folds 40%-60%

[/ QUOTE ]

That seems about right to me. I was thinking I push about 50%. What's your point?

[Scuba Chuck]

OK, Degen, you seem to have settled down a little. It appears that at our shared first instincts, pushing, as that was your 'advice' and it was also my instinct at the time (as that is what I did - despite your belief that I am too weak tight), may or may not be the best move. In an effort to continously improve my (our) game, which I measure in terms of ROI, I am reconsidering my play. Perhaps a call is better for my (our) overall ROI.

That being said, are you still stuck on 'auto' push here? Can there be any case just calling?

I propose we do some math, rather than continually to verbally debate this.

Things to consider: $33 SNG

What Hand Range do we put villain on?
What percentage of the time do we assume villain will fold?

I'll do the rest of the math.

[fnord_too]

I push. I still have a lot of folding equity (UTG will be raising with a lot of hands here, and doubling me up puts a terrible hurting on his stack). If I'm called, I don't mind a race against any hand other than AA or KK. The fact that BB has 2.2 (or 1.2? Not sure if 440 is after he posts or not) does not really affect my decision in this case. (Caveat, the only STTs I've played of late are satelites, but it would take math to convince me that pushing is wrong, and even then I'm going to have to buy the assumptions the math is based on, like hand ranges, calling standards, etc.)

[Degen]

my point is that if:

A: he folds 40%-60% of the time
B: he calls the other 40%-60% of the time
C: you are a favorite or a coin-flip in at least 75% of instances you are called

(this last one i am assuming, i doubt many would disagree)

you have to push every time. i'm about to read your 'math' post but i'm sure you will see too that this is a profitable move long-run, though it may add a little short-term variance...it is definately +EV long run.



Degen

[pooh74]

This is a good hand...thx scuba...for all the pushers out there, this is not so easy. I'd flat call this...youre a dog to any pair and, of course you may be dominating many UTG's raising hands here, but why let BB off the hook? you can still get away from this hand if you have to. I dont think this is an issue of "1st" or nothing, its an easy opportunity to get into the money and to not pass on a power hand at the same time...u have ~0 FE here so pushing really accomplishes nothing...this is one of those rare instances where you must flat call a raise on the bubble and play your hand...ive been in this situation may times and often play it this way to great success. the disadvantage is that you may only see 3 cards instead of 5 but if BB comes in, UTG may check down.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
my point is that if:

A: he folds 40%-60% of the time
B: he calls the other 40%-60% of the time
C: you are a favorite or a coin-flip in at least 75% of instances you are called

(this last one i am assuming, i doubt many would disagree)

[/ QUOTE ]

There are two assumptions we have to decipher here.
First one, we will all agree on:
Range of hands villain would be willing to play/challenge BB with.
Second one, a little more challenging:
Range of hands villain will call a reraise from me with.

I think that villains range of hands in assumption 1 are wider than the range of hands in assumption 2. Do you agree?

[ QUOTE ]
though it may add a little short-term variance...it is definately +EV long run.


[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, our $EV calculation has a flaw here. It assumes that there are only two choices. Push or fold. That's why this becomes such an interesting post.

I'm pretty sure the math will come out to be +$EV, but I'm curious as to
A) how much
B) what you and I agree (or disagree) the hand range will be.

[Degen]

haha sorry if i shoot from the hip man...i usually post while in the middle of 4 sng's


i don't think it matters specifically which hand he has, more what % of the time AK will win when called.


I'd say that WHEN HE CALLS the push:

-35% of the time you'll have him destroyed (meaning he has a big ace or king)
-50% of the time you'll be roughly a coin-flip (QQ or smaller PP)
-10% of the time he'll have you destroyed (AA or KK)
-5% of the time he'll have AK

add to this the fact that he'll fold 40%-60% of the time and i can tell you right now what you're ICM is gonna tell you.


PUUUUUSHHHHH!!!!!!

Degen

[Degen]

my response is summed up lower in the thread

Degen

[Scuba Chuck]

Since you're limiting your decisions (based on assuming $EV as your only decision) to either push or fold here, there's one other significant point that you miss in your analysis. What if you fold, and BB calls?

I'll do the math in my next post.

[Scuba Chuck]

Prize Structure Analysis (ICM)

Fold, and BB folds = 26.5% of the equity prize pool
Fold, and BB calls and loses = 28.7% of the equity prize pool.
Fold, and BB calls and wins = 23.2%
If we assume BB folds 30% of the time, and that he wins 30% of the time, then:
Folding = (.3)(.265)+(.7)(.7)(.287)+(.7)(.3)(.232)= .26885
Folding = 26.9% of the equity prize pool

Pushing, and UTG+BB fold = 31.2%
Pushing, and BB folds, UTG calls and you win = 36.6%
Using your assumptions:
UTG calls 40-60% of the time. I'll use 60% for this analysis.
Hand range is something like AJ+, 77+, KQs when he calls.
AKo is a 49% dog to the hand range above

For extreme simplicity sake, I will assume BB will fold all times (which is a very wrong assumption, but makes my math easier):
Pushing = (.4)(.312)+(.6)(.49)(.366) = .2324
Pushing = 23.24%

If you agree with most of my above assumptions, the math actually says this is a fold. What are your thoughts?

[Scuba Chuck]

Just for fun, let's assume he calls 40% of the time instead of 60%.

Pushing = (.6)(.312)+(.4)(.49)(.366) = .2589
Pushing = 25.9%

Remember:
Folding = 26.9% of the equity prize pool

The math still says this is a fold.

[Seadood228]

Without reading the responses, I prefer pushing to folding, and folding to calling.

I'm not a huge fan of calling to "hit a flop" with so few chips behind. If you put him on a smallish pair, then it'll be difficult to get chips from him if you do hit a good flop. This situation is reraise or fold for me.

You have some folding equity plus there is a good chance he calls you with a dominated hand.

This is one of those situations where you'll feel like you've pushed too hard when he calls and shows AA or KK, or he shows a lower PP and wins the coin flip, but in all actuality those situations are going to be pretty rare compared to the times he either folds, calls with a dominated hand, or you win the coinflip.

Another great example BTW.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Without reading the responses, I prefer pushing to folding, and folding to calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Out of curiosity, does the math change your answer?

[Seadood228]

[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity, does the math change your answer?

[/ QUOTE ]

Errr.. no.. but the fact that I'm an idiot who can't read does. I totally misread the stack sizes/positions in the earlier post. My bad.. Can I change my vote to CALL/PUSH/FOLD /images/graemlins/smile.gif

This actually looks like a good spot to call with the situation as it is. The advantage of pushing is that you'll get to see all 5 cards, but in all actuality you might get to see them a lot cheaper by calling if your opponent does in fact have one of the hands that we were assuming. The fact that BB is so short (I thought he was the SB and YOU had the big stack) will discourage UTG from taking a swing at the pot without a made hand.

This is one of the few situations where I like calling with AK, and in no way can I see this as an "automatic push"

Sorry Scuba.. next time I'll lay off the heroin before I read one of your examples. And to think I 6 table these /images/graemlins/blush.gif No wonder I can't hit those 40% ROI numbers everyone else does /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
In addition, I want the BB come along too. If the raiser ends up taking me out, I want the BB to go down with me, so I get 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

Phil, I think I learn more from your posts than anyone else. I voted push, but now I see that calling is a better answer. The BB will almost certainly fold if you push (he'll hope, of course, that you bust out). If you call, he has a much harder decision.

However, Phil, I would like to know your ITM% and ROI%, since maybe you suck and I'm learning a bunch of bad lessons by reading your posts.

[OPJayhawk]

Ilya - I think your thinking is a little off here.

[ QUOTE ]
Also...ok, say you push. Ignore the SB for a second. Now the BB either calls or folds. If he calls, you're in good shape since you've only got to beat one of your two opponents to survive/make money. If BB folds, UTG is gonna be looking at calling off a huge chunk of his stack when there's a guy to his right with 225 chips left. Not unreasonable to suppose that this may persuade him to fold some small pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the BB sitting with only 225 chips left its an excellent time for UTG to gamble. Even if he calls and loses he is still in excellent shape to at least take third with the BB almost out.

With 500 chips bet already and looking at pot of roughly 3400 chips for another 1000 he has odds to make the call and an escape if he misses.

The size of the BB's stack here makes a huge difference. If he was sitting on 800 chips instead of 400 then I believe this becomes an easy push as UTG now is in alot more danger if he calls and loses.

PacmanFL

[Seadood228]

Interesting arguement for folding brought forth by your math. I originally went from thinking folding is NOT terrible, to thinking it is, and now I'm kind of on the fence.

It's weird how situations that appear so cut and dry change given the structure of these crazy SNGs.

I'm still voting for CALL/PUSH/FOLD here, but thanks for a different prespective. That's exactly what this forum is for.

One thing that we should add into the mix is the fact that a decent portion of the time this hand will get checked down between you and UTG if neither of you hit, in which case you don't lose much over pushing and getting called by a dominated hand.

Also, if you flat call, how often will the BB come along in this situation? I know it's wrong not to, but how many players will think "maybe Scuba will bust out this hand" and let their hand go?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
but how many players will think "maybe Scuba will bust out this hand" and let their hand go?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would, and I'm Scuba /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[11t]

I fold and hope the BB goes out, yes UTG could have AQ/AJ but he has to know that the BB is almost out and he will most likely be forced to show down a hand.

Pushing is the 2nd best option with your chip stack, if you had 3,000 behind you I would probably lean more towards calling. However you only have 1500 with a hand that is only good when it hits or when you are up against a weaker ace or king.

I fold and watch UTG flip over something like TT or JJ when BB calls his raise.

[Degen]

lol i consider myself strong in math but that went way over my head...it is definately not a fold...its either a call or a push...i think calling is a horrible move but it can be argued for.

one thing is for certain, there is more than one right way to play these tourneys and win. i'm sure somebody could call that all the time and somebody else could push it all the time...and they both could win.


i'm done with this one...see you in another thread /images/graemlins/wink.gif


Degen

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
lol i consider myself strong in math but that went way over my head...

[/ QUOTE ]

So you don't think that Prize Strucutre Analysis ($EV) is the math the works best for making decisions? You're just going to shoot from the hip? If shooting from the hip is your style of play and subsequent advice, I'd begin to caution you on being so adamant in your opinions on this forum.

[ QUOTE ]
i'm done with this one...see you in another thread

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, even I can admit when I'm wrong...

[Degen]

"So you don't think that Prize Strucutre Analysis ($EV) is the math the works best for making decisions?"

I'm sure its a good tool. I've not gotten too far into it yet, when i decide to take the next step (55's, 109's etc) i'll add this tool to my game i'm sure.


though i must say, i like guys like you at my table. nobody is easier to steal blinds from that a bean counter with his ICM open.


Degen

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
though i must say, i like guys like you at my table. nobody is easier to steal blinds from that a bean counter with his ICM open.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, you don't get it.

In return then, I like guys like you, who choose not to learn the game, including the math part, and make bad decisions. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Scuba

[adanthar]

My gut says this is a push but it may be a call - I think I would go by how likely BB is to overcall if I call (if he folds every time, I'd be more likely to push.) This, however, is because with 3200 chips I'm more likely to take first than the ICM says.

I would never fold here.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]

Hand range is something like AJ+, 77+, KQs when he calls.
AKo is a 49% dog to the hand range above


[/ QUOTE ]

I get

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

133,559,712 games 0.219 secs 609,861,698 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 52.6631 % [ 00.46 00.06 ] { AcKd }
Hand 2: 47.3369 % [ 00.41 00.06 ] { AA-77, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AJo }


[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't check any of the other math (since this was easy to check and I'm lazy). I don't think I buy your assumptions. I'm not saying I am correct, but I have not been convinced that I am incorrect.

[utmt40]

Just say "Not enough, I'm all-in!"

[pooh74]

dunno if this has been mentioned...but
1. call- then If BB comes along, push/call flop regardless

2. call- if BB folds, play the hand like your life is on the line...fold to bet on missed flop/check down...play weak IOW(800 left if you fold...great shape to squeak itm)

This is how 'd i play it...i think by only asking "what would you do" leaves out the branches in the analysis of "call, then what would you do if, 1. and 2."

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
but I have not been convinced that I am incorrect.


[/ QUOTE ]

No it looks like you're correct. I reran this through pokerstove, and I cannot for the life of me figure out why I came out with different numbers...

Edit: just figured it out, I forgot to include AJ in the hand range.

[valenzuela]

A different point of view does UTG wants to call..lets see this from his point fo view if the math tells us its wrong for him to call then pushing its the best move.

[gasgod]

In the humble opinion of this beginner, it is a mistake to focus on UTG. Look at the hand from the viewpoint of the BB.

If you push, you give BB a powerful incentive to fold. It may not be right for him to fold, but you give him the hope of backing into the money, which makes a fold more attractive.

However, suppose you flat call. BB now has overwhelming pot odds to call and would be an innumerate fool to fold. (5.4 to 1 if SB folds, 7.5 to 1 if SB calls) I argue that unless you read BB to be a total fish, it must be right to call.

If he folds, he will have t240, and be forced to post the small blind next hand, hardly a recipe for having any realistic chance to money. But if he calls and gets a great flop (2 pair or better), he has a chance to not only get back in the contest, but also to take the lead over you, and threaten UTG for second place.

If you call, BB has a mandatory call, and that's what your analysis should presume. Maybe it's still a fold, scuba, I dunno. But I'm convinced that pushing is wrong.

As one poster said, if you call and BB stupidly folds, you have to protect your position. In effect, you and BB can cooperate to steal $EV from UTG by both calling. You gotta trust BB to do the right thing. If you had a made hand, it might be different, but as many have pointed out, all you have is a draw.

Additionally, although it's very unlikely, SB could also enter the pot. How comfortable would you be if you pushed, and everybody called except BB? Or, worse, if SB came over the top all-in, and UTG called? Your next decision might well be what to have for dinner.

I'd be interested to see what ICM has to say about a call with the assumption that BB will always call.


GG

[valenzuela]

My instinct are wrong...a fold is correct accoring to ICM

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
1. call- then If BB comes along, push/call flop regardless

2. call- if BB folds, play the hand like your life is on the line...fold to bet on missed flop/check down...play weak IOW(800 left if you fold...great shape to squeak itm)

This is how 'd i play it...i think by only asking "what would you do" leaves out the branches in the analysis of "call, then what would you do if, 1. and 2."


[/ QUOTE ]

Pooh, this (your) decision is the one I'm leaning toward is the best line (for me). I definately don't like folding here (I know, I know, you're all surprised), but I am very concerned about pushing.

You know, what we haven't discussed is what would your decision be if UTG had just pushed allin. I guess my feeling here is that those who are on the fence of Call here would be the ones who suggest pushing allin. And those who would fold to an allin, are suggesting that your line is more attractive.

Would you fold your AK to an allin by UTG here?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe it's still a fold, scuba, I dunno. But I'm convinced that pushing is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have not been one to advocate a fold. In fact, I pushed into this hand (and lost to TT).

In response to Degen's opinion that pushing will always be +EV, I responded that looking at this from a pure $EV analysis limits your options to just push or fold. I guess if my only options were limited to just push or fold, I'm now thinking I would fold. But due to the fact that calling is an option, it makes this an extremely interesting hand to discuss.

Scuba

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe it's still a fold, scuba, I dunno. But I'm convinced that pushing is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have not been one to advocate a fold. In fact, I pushed into this hand (and lost to TT).

In response to Degen's opinion that pushing will always be +EV, I responded that looking at this from a pure $EV analysis limits your options to just push or fold. I guess if my only options were limited to just push or fold, I'm now thinking I would fold. But due to the fact that calling is an option, it makes this an extremely interesting hand to discuss.

Scuba

[/ QUOTE ]

In response to this and your prior post, I think there are times to play weak, and this is one of them. Its all about chronology here...UTG has already acted, so he is closed down PF UNLESS...UNLESS u push...so lets see what BB does bc that is what really decides the interesting part of this hand's IMPLICATIONS....(who cashes). BB folds, UTG bets on the flop that u missed...u can fold and BB has 140 on his next hand...u have 800...i like ur chances....

BB comes along and u push on the flop and hopefully have 2nd best hand, at least and cash.