99 on level 3

[dfscott]

I think I could've played this better, but I'm not sure how. Raise pre-flop to isolate? Bet out the flop?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t1590)
Hero (t680)
BB (t1155)
UTG (t840)
MP1 (t1285)
MP2 (t1790)
CO (t660)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls t50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t200) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t100</font>, MP2 folds, Hero folds, BB folds.

Final Pot: t300

[TheUsher]

If you were going to raise, only possible option is all-in. I'd be happy to take down the 3x50+25SB there and increase my stack 20%.

[morgan180]

i don't think a PF raise here is going to help you on this flop. level 3 i take this same line.

if you only had the one MP limper I'd raise, but the UTG limp just never looks right - what $$ are you at?

[lorinda]

I'm going to almost utterly ignore this hand and concentrate on something else.
FWIW the hand looks fine.

Bet out the flop?

You did this recently with 88 or something similar.

Why do you keep trying to bet flops you have missed? If you really want to bet a flop you have missed, you're better putting the chips in preflop when you might still be ahead.

Lori

[morgan180]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you keep trying to bet flops you have missed?

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree - not being weak doesn't mean betting every flop.

[wuwei]

You played it well. I don't like the idea of playing 99 out of position here for a raise.

The only other possibility I see is to push preflop.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
If you were going to raise, only possible option is all-in. I'd be happy to take down the 3x50+25SB there and increase my stack 20%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, if you're going to complete....you can't play that flop.

Allin preflop is an option, however...

Yugoslav

[curtains]

I would have moved allin preflop here, mainly because of your stack size. 680 chips is not a lot, and with 175 in the pot already, I don't want to mess around and see a flop, when I likely have the best hand.

If you had more chips (around 800-900), or the blinds were smaller (15-30), I would be more apt to call and hope to hit a favorable flop.

In the actual hand, after you just called preflop, I believe you were correct to fold after checking. Your other option is to bet out the flop, but I'm not a big fan. I think allin preflop is clearly the best play here.

[Phil Van Sexton]

Push preflop. This what I was talking (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1997018&amp;page=1&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1) about the other day.

What would you do with this hand on the button on level 4 (50/100)? You'd push, of course. Well, there's more money to be had here (175 in pot), so why are you fooling around with a call?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to almost utterly ignore this hand and concentrate on something else.
FWIW the hand looks fine.

Bet out the flop?

You did this recently with 88 or something similar.

Why do you keep trying to bet flops you have missed? If you really want to bet a flop you have missed, you're better putting the chips in preflop when you might still be ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lori, I'm pretty sure this is nothing like that 88 hand. Hero didn't bet out here. And I'm confident his question is concerning preflop actions, not postflop.

We hope hero has learned that betting out postflop when he's missed has been plugged.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to almost utterly ignore this hand and concentrate on something else.
FWIW the hand looks fine.

Bet out the flop?

You did this recently with 88 or something similar.

Why do you keep trying to bet flops you have missed? If you really want to bet a flop you have missed, you're better putting the chips in preflop when you might still be ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lori, I'm pretty sure this is nothing like that 88 hand. Hero didn't bet out here. And I'm confident his question is concerning preflop actions, not postflop.

We hope hero has learned that betting out postflop when he's missed has been plugged.

[/ QUOTE ]

To be fair, I did consider betting the flop but I didn't because:

a) I'm out of position,
b) The K is likely to have hit someone, and
c) A heart draw is likely to call (I'm really only interesting in betting if I can take it down right here).

If it had been checked through and a card under my pair had fallen, I might've bet the turn.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Push preflop. This what I was talking (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1997018&amp;page=1&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1) about the other day.

What would you do with this hand on the button on level 4 (50/100)? You'd push, of course. Well, there's more money to be had here (175 in pot), so why are you fooling around with a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really considered pushing pre-flop. This is a case where I'm likely to win long-term, but I think it is likely that I'm going to get overcard callers that hit at the 10s. I just have to get used to the fact that sometimes I'm going to lose to people who make bad calls.

[Texas Pete]

If you push preflop you give two overcards the pot odds to call you. (Pot is 50+50+75+680 = 855; costs either one of them 680-50 = 630 to call.) Plus, you can't do anything about UTG having an overpair to you at that point.

If want to make an aggressive play, you can raise preflop (say T200). If UTG reraises, you can let it go. If he just calls, you can put him on two high cards and consider pushing on the flop. If only one or zero high cards hit the flop it'd be a decent bet.

The play you made was good. T25 for a T175 pot, if you hit your trips you'll probably have a customer who will double you up. You didn't get 'em, so you check and fold. Nothing wrong with that at all.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
If you push preflop you give two overcards the pot odds to call you. (Pot is 50+50+75+680 = 855; costs either one of them 680-50 = 630 to call.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless your opponent can see your cards, this isn't really important. If he's sitting there with QT, I doubt he's calculating the pot odds against 99. If he is, he's cheating or an idiot.

In reality, he will fold because that he is AT BEST in a coin flip against a lower pair.

[Texas Pete]

(1) So are you saying the T200 raise is a bad play? If so, why?

(2) Which play would you say was better, the T200 raise or the push, and why?

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
(1) So are you saying the T200 raise is a bad play?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes.

[ QUOTE ]
If so, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

- 200 is almost 1/3 of his stack.
- His stack is small, so he's pretty much pot committed if someone calls or raises.
- The limpers would be getting some pretty good odds to call 150 more and see the flop with overcards.

[ QUOTE ]
(2) Which play would you say was better, the T200 raise or the push, and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

- The push is better because you want to win the pot right now. It's big enough.
- A 200 bet will pot commit you, but with less folding equity than a push.
- You almost certainly have the best hand. Other than TT, any better hand would likely have raised already
- If called, you are likely to be in a coin flip AT WORST.

[Texas Pete]

Putting in a little less than 1/3 of your stack makes you pot committed if someone calls? (If 99 is re-raised by UTG, he can fold putting UTG on QQ-AA. It's not a bad play to limp UTG with a high pair, now and then, if you expect an aggressive player to raise you. Personally, I never limp with QQ-AA.)

The fact is you have almost no information in the SB, with two limpers, about the strength of their hands. Raising gets you that information at the cost of T200. Pushing with two limpers, they can put you on any pair or A9os and above, something like that.

[curtains]

You do have a lot of information. Your opponents limped, this usually means they DON'T have a big hand. Sometimes they will, but most of the time they won't. If people limping in isn't enough information for you then I don't know what is.

[curtains]

I really hate raising to 200. You can't always be so careful in these situations. You might entice hands liek QTs to take a flop against you, and you really don't want that. You need to take this down preflop, and if you get called and it's a coinflip, then so be it. Or if someone was slowplaying AA-QQ then that's okay too, sometimes this has to happen to you.

[lastchance]

You want to fold after putting a third of your stack in the middle with a pair? What are you thinking?

You don't have a deep enough stack to try to make a bet for information.

You can either push or complete here, IMHO. Completing isn't horrible, but I really like pushing here. In fact, go ahead and push, your stack is only 13x BB, there's a lot of chips in the middle, and nines are really strong here.

You don't need information about their hand. They limped, you have pocket nines and about 13x BB. You certainly don't want to get called and have an overcard board hit. Folding here after a t200 raise is horrible, and so is calling, so push preflop.

[Texas Pete]

Well, if it was a normally agressive SNG, I would play conservatively and do exactly what the original poster did. Call and play for trips. If I wanted to make an aggressive play, i'm going to raise T200. Whether this or all-in is the better aggressive play depends what probabilities you assign to calling and folding when you do your ICM. However, none of you arguing against raising to T200 are taking into consideration that (a) that raise may fold the limpers anyway and (b) you may win even more chips after they miss the flop and you push. I stand corrected on the bit about getting more info with the raise. The purpose of the raise is to get a caller and then win more chips, while still having the chance to win the pot pre-flop. If you get only one caller and one or zero high cards hit you can probably take it down when you go all in post-flop.

I don't like the all-in because (a) the first caller would have the pot odds to call any two overcards (b) then of course, so does the second (c) you can't back out of a bad flop (d) you don't win as much in the long run.

I think in my earlier days I would push this in an instant, but I have since learned how to make more T$ with my good hands..

[curtains]

"I don't like the all-in because (a) the first caller would have the pot odds to call any two overcards (b) then of course, so does the second (c) you can't back out of a bad flop (d) you don't win as much in the long run."


I don't understand? If you raise allin, they have the pot odds to call with 2 overcards, but if you raise to 200 they don't? This is poor logic. Raising to 200 is almost surely a terrible play here. Also no one is calling your allin raise with KTo, KJo, QTo, JTo, and most of the time they will even fold ATo.

[lastchance]

So, what do you plan on doing postflop? Check-call or push? His stack just isn't big enough to do much.

[Umass1985]

[ QUOTE ]
"I don't like the all-in because (a) the first caller would have the pot odds to call any two overcards (b) then of course, so does the second (c) you can't back out of a bad flop (d) you don't win as much in the long run."


I don't understand? If you raise allin, they have the pot odds to call with 2 overcards, but if you raise to 200 they don't? This is poor logic. Raising to 200 is almost surely a terrible play here. Also no one is calling your allin raise with KTo, KJo, QTo, JTo, and most of the time they will even fold ATo.

[/ QUOTE ]I've seen it called in Party 11s-33s before, but I still think the push is the right move here, raising 200 is wrong. With the push you have decent folding equity, and if they call you are in command of the coinflip.

[Texas Pete]

Ok, to finish up the night here (hope you all had a good one too), I decided to get quantitative. Honestly I have no idea how it's going to come out but a starting point would be nice. So I have to make some assumptions. If someone wants to work it with different assumptions go ahead.

assumptions
(1) UTG on 55-AA or any two overcards
(2) 50% chance he'll fold to a T200 raise
(3) 75% chance he'll fold to an all-in raise
(4) BB is going to fold all the time
(5) MP2 is going to fold all the time
(6) SB auto-pushes the flop; UTG calls and wins 33% of the time (corresponding to hitting an overcard on the flop)

Results

Case 1: SB All-in
(a) UTG folds 75% * 0.1098
(b) UTG calls 25% * (52.5%*0.178 + 47.7%*0.0000)
=================================
ICM total for pushing: 0.1057

Case II: Raise to T200
(a) UTG folds 50% * 0.1098
(b) UTG calls 50%
i) hits the flop 33% * 0.0000
ii) misses the flop 66% * 0.1332
=======================================
ICM Total for raise and push: 0.0988

With these assumptions, a little better to push.
OTOH, if he calls our T200 raise 100% of the time, the ICM
total is 0.08791, starting to be a lot better to push.

[Texas Pete]

Despite being wrong about the raise, I can go to sleep having learned to be a better player. Good night!!

[Texas Pete]

Looks like the push beats the conservative play as well.
Assumming a 10% chance to double up his remaining T630 + the pot of T200, if the small blind completes and plays for trips, I am getting

0.09483 for the conservative play

compared to

0.1057 the previous result for pushing.

Actually, even the T200 raise is better than completing and playing for trips (ICM = 0.0988)

[Texas Pete]

Still thinking about this situation... what if small blind pushes with 32os? His win pct is then 28% if called so that his ICM is

(a) fold 75% x 0.1098
(b) call 25% x (.28 * 0.178)
===========================
Pushing with rags = 0.09481

same as the conservative play!
Interestingly, the raise play looks like the best deal if you don't have any cards. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
To be fair, I did consider betting the flop but I didn't because:

a) I'm out of position,
b) The K is likely to have hit someone, and
c) A heart draw is likely to call (I'm really only interesting in betting if I can take it down right here).


[/ QUOTE ]

d) I'd rather post another HH that the forum can hammer me on. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Just kidding.

You don't see too many new forum members use this site as well as you have the last month. I'm confident it will pay off.