20k hands of 5/10, hmm lucky or?

[AlexSem]

Hiya.

My first 20k hands of 5/10 have just wrapped up. I had 4bb/100 but then past 3 days I spent so much playing and hardly broke even so that brought it down to uhh, 3.8 or whatever.

http://www.alexsem.com/uploader/uploads/stats.gif

My aggression factor is higher than anyone's I know on here. Same goes for VPIP I think? Let me know if I am making some major mistakes or what.

This is not the way most people here advocate to play but it seems to work for me, just lucky so far or?

[helpmeout]

Come back in 30k hands

[mperich]

20k isnt that much, and im sure ur running above average, but you could definately be winning at 3ish/100. Ive never been close to that aggressive, and also I see more showdowns, so its hard for me to comment on if you should change anything. Id say play 100k and if it aint broke dont fix it. Keep up the good work,

-Mike

[Jeff W]

Would you mind posting your position stats tab?

[MAxx]

that does look a little super human to me. i would be interested in seeing a report after another 30k as well. if you can keep that up at even a 1bb/100 or 1.7bb/100 less, you still would have something very good going.

[MAxx]

for the record, do you raise 22 and jto UTG? i'd be shocked if you say no....

[RunDownHouse]

Your AF, VP$IP, and PFR are all indicative of someone running well.

I definitely think that a VP$IP of > 25% can be more profitable than < 25%. I just won't believe that you can do it until I see more than 20k hands.

[Mr. Graff]

It's a swingy game. My first 10K hands at 5/10 I was only barely winning 1 BB/100 but my next 28K I have been running very well at 3.75 BB/100.

I wonder what your standard deviation looks like? With your style I imagine it must be quite high.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
Hiya.

My first 20k hands of 5/10 have just wrapped up. I had 4bb/100 but then past 3 days I spent so much playing and hardly broke even so that brought it down to uhh, 3.8 or whatever.

http://www.alexsem.com/uploader/uploads/stats.gif

My aggression factor is higher than anyone's I know on here. Same goes for VPIP I think? Let me know if I am making some major mistakes or what.

This is not the way most people here advocate to play but it seems to work for me, just lucky so far or?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you just became excel's new best friend.

[Alobar]

heh, he's still to tight by excel standards


I dont think you are running well, I just think you are running everyone over. Your W$SD is pretty low, ut your W$WSF is on the high side. You attempt to steal the blinds an incrdible amount. So i think its just your aggression that is killing everyone. Course this can also be a form of running well, you might not be getting unnusually hot cards, but your oppoents arent either, and they are folding to your aggresion. Hopefully they keep doing it, but I'm not a fan of that high a level of aggresion, so I have my personal doubts that it will work, but hopefully im wrong! (and I usually am /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

[AlexSem]

[ QUOTE ]
Come back in 30k hands

[/ QUOTE ]
Will Do /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Would you mind posting your position stats tab?

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.alexsem.com/uploader/uploads/pos.gif


[ QUOTE ]
for the record, do you raise 22 and jto UTG? i'd be shocked if you say no....

[/ QUOTE ]

22 seems a little insane. I occasionally do raise with something like J10o or Q8s but that's only when I am tilting or the table conditions allow, or I just do it every now and then for the sake of [censored] up my image.


[ QUOTE ]
I wonder what your standard deviation looks like? With your style I imagine it must be quite high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Up and down 800$ 4 days in a row... So yeah that's quite high.


[ QUOTE ]
You attempt to steal the blinds an incrdible amount. So i think its just your aggression that is killing everyone. Course this can also be a form of running well, you might not be getting unnusually hot cards, but your oppoents arent either, and they are folding to your aggresion. Hopefully they keep doing it

[/ QUOTE ]

I really enjoyed reading your response as well as others, very very informative and thought provoking at the same time.

You have pretty much nailed what I think is the result of me winning, but then look at most 2+2ers here. They VPIP something likw 20% or maybe 25%. YOu can literally rape them for blinds almost every time. I raise a lot to gain position preflop as well as on the flop. When people get pissed off and simply start calling down with everything, I gain a lot with my premium hands, while losing a fair bit with all the trash I keep raising with (79o is a raise on the button to steal blinds if they're both below 50% VPIP etc). So I guess as long as people fail to adjust, it's the way to go. Once people catch on to all the blind stealing and position advantage I keep gaining, I'll rely on something else.

Thanks for all the responses and if anything else pops in your mind, please let me know.

[AlexSem]

oh I forgot to ask, what are these excel standarts you guys are referring to?

Forgive my ignorance on the subject :P

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
oh I forgot to ask, what are these excel standarts you guys are referring to?

Forgive my ignorance on the subject :P

[/ QUOTE ]

"Excel" is the name of this retarded poster (thats giving him to much credit, hes more like a troll that worships a player who is a big winner and has a high VPIP), basically he spammed a million threads awhile back about how anyone with a VPIP of under 25 cant be a winning player and stuff like that

[MAxx]

excel is a troll in search of drama and facinated with the LAG style... but much more loose aggressive than you.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]

They VPIP something likw 20% or maybe 25%. YOu can literally rape them for blinds almost every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
(79o is a raise on the button to steal blinds if they're both below 50% VPIP etc).

[/ QUOTE ]

While this can be true, there are lots of players with VPIP of less than 25 who defend there blinds a very high amount. I dont think VPIP is an accurate indicator of blind defense. Which is why I have "folded big blind to a steal" as one of the stats listed on my player view stats....something you might want to think about, seeing as how you steal alot, this (and FSBTS) would be valuable info to have at ure fingertips

[spider]

Thanks for posting, Alex. This is one of the more interesting stats posts.

I think you might be running hot in the SB. You're doing -.01 per hand while I'm doing -.05 and I have almost the exact same stats for SB VP$IP & fold to steal. But you win much more than me. So either you have been lucky there or you just play very well. (I haven't pondered SB stats in a while, but are others able to maintain something like -.01 in the long run?)

You're beating me .18 to .13 on the button, which confirms for me the fact that I don't steal enough. Still, 46% seems way high and I wonder if you can sustain it. I'm not saying you can't, but I'd love to see you keep it at 46% and then maybe share your results after 50k hands.

On a side note to this, didn't Nate's blind stealing experiment suggest optimal stealing to be really high? But that was based on Turbo sims, I'm not aware of actual evidence confirming steal rates this high actually work. Of course, depends a lot on how much blinds 3-bet.

[AlexSem]

[ QUOTE ]
While this can be true, there are lots of players with VPIP of less than 25 who defend there blinds a very high amount. I dont think VPIP is an accurate indicator of blind defense. Which is why I have "folded big blind to a steal" as one of the stats listed on my player view stats....something you might want to think about, seeing as how you steal alot, this (and FSBTS) would be valuable info to have at ure

[/ QUOTE ]

What is defending blinds? Maybe I am not 100% on the lingo but is defending blinds, when you re-raise or when you simply call the raise? If they simply call the raise (most people do), I simply rape them on flop or turn by almost auto-betting. If an ace hits, I bet, if I am raised, I am holding that ace half the time and I wait for the turn to check-raise and rape them some more. If I don't have the ace, I bet and they will fold fearing that I have it very very often. So the only time I lose, is when I don't have the ace (this is very simplified of course) and I am raised on the flop.

I see other people who steal a lot and even I, knowing exactly what they do, cannot really do much about it, their hand is UNPREDICTABLE, you cannot make any read at all, AND they have position on you. Raising is almost always the correct play on the button for such reasons, I think.

Folded big blind to a steal is an excellent idea. I will definitely look into it, thank you so much for bringing that up.


[ QUOTE ]
I think you might be running hot in the SB. You're doing -.01 per hand while I'm doing -.05 and I have almost the exact same stats for SB VP$IP & fold to steal. But you win much more than me. So either you have been lucky there or you just play very well. (I haven't pondered SB stats in a while, but are others able to maintain something like -.01 in the long run?)

[/ QUOTE ]

SB is interesting. I play very loose and aggressive by default, SB is probably my most aggressive spot. I will check-raise with lowest pairs or drawings hands if it's checked and button bets to eliminate opponents. I will shamelessly raise with almost anything if everyone folded before me, forcing BB to either heads up while shitting bricks that I have something totally crazy (I've not seen anyone raising from SB regularly so it really throws people off, like TOTALLY off), and naturally I just constantly steal pots from the SB since BB are mostly incompetent or too scared.

I try to defend my BB a lot as well, but that doesn't seem to be working too well, if you are good in that field or anyone else can suggest something, I'd be very very appreciative.

[Mr. Graff]

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[ QUOTE ]
I wonder what your standard deviation looks like? With your style I imagine it must be quite high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Up and down 800$ 4 days in a row... So yeah that's quite high.

[/ QUOTE ]
Under Session Notes -> More Detail in Pokertracker you can view the exact number. Most are around 17 but I suspect you are higher because of your style.

[MAxx]

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What is defending blinds? Maybe I am not 100% on the lingo but is defending blinds, when you re-raise or when you simply call the raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

both

[MAxx]

Nikla suggest over 40% blind steals.

[spider]

[ QUOTE ]
SB is interesting. I play very loose and aggressive by default, SB is probably my most aggressive spot. I will check-raise with lowest pairs or drawings hands if it's checked and button bets to eliminate opponents. I will shamelessly raise with almost anything if everyone folded before me, forcing BB to either heads up while shitting bricks that I have something totally crazy (I've not seen anyone raising from SB regularly so it really throws people off, like TOTALLY off), and naturally I just constantly steal pots from the SB since BB are mostly incompetent or too scared.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool. Sounds like you are a very good player headsup.

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I try to defend my BB a lot as well, but that doesn't seem to be working too well, if you are good in that field or anyone else can suggest something, I'd be very very appreciative.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I fold less to steals from the BB than you (I'm at 59%) but play less aggressively than you when I do play. But the net result is that my win rate in BB is just a little worse than yours (-.16) instead of (-.14).

So anyway, I think you know what you're doing and don't need advice from me, but I'd guess you could call a little more often from the BB since you seem to play fine post-flop.

[AlexSem]

Standart Deviation/Hour: 19.5BB/195$

Same for /100 hands.

Not too bad, a bit higher than 17