Super Draw. All-Ins Wee [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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kamjah

03-26-2005, 01:03 AM

This is my 3rd or 4th hand since sitting down at this table. I have no reads on the villain. Just wondering, is it right to call here? I figured i had more than enough outs here to justify the call.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO ($16.24)
Button ($75.28)
Hero ($49.5)
BB ($50)
UTG ($95.69)
MP ($53.66)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Hero posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Button calls $0.50, Hero (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($2) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)Hero Checks, BB checks, UTG bets $1, Button Folds, Hero raises to 3, BB folds, UTG is all-in $94.19, Hero is all-in $46

River: ($184.19) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)

Final Pot: $184.19

Results in white below: 
BB doesn't show.
UTG has Ts 9s (straight, jack high).
Button doesn't show.
Hero has 5h Ah (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins $98 from the main pot. UTG wins 46.19 from the side pot 

Assuming i put him on a set, or medium or low straight. (Not the nut straight which dwarfs my outs). Was this the right move?

xorbie

03-26-2005, 01:29 AM

No. Where it the flop, maybe. But the way this has worked out, you basically just have 7 heart outs, because 2 also pair the board, the straight draw probably splits the pot at best, and in case it only gives you about 11 outs at best to win, which is 4:1.

ClaytonN

03-26-2005, 01:49 AM

He made it 93 bucks in an 8 dollar pot. This is Party.

You only had flush outs. Fold.

mishafp

03-26-2005, 01:50 AM

If you think about it- this play is really really bad. I mean, you are calling a bet that is EIGHT times the size of the pot, and in the very best situation, which is very unlikely, you are still behind.

Lets just say you put him on 2-pair, which the absolute minimum he has making this move (honestly, its at least a set). That means you have 8 or 9 heart outs (depending on which set he has), and then either 3 or 4 outs for your straight (again, depends on which set or 2-pair he has). So that puts you, raelistically, at 12 outs in the BEST reasonable situation. This means, you are investing 46 dollars to win a 100 dollar pot with only abotu a 25% chance to win it. Not good times.

kamjah

03-26-2005, 01:57 AM

hrm now that i think about it. I guess i was blinded by my outs. Forgetting to think about how several of my outs were forfeited. I dunno, but the all-in raise just seemed excessive and loose, and in my mind i automatically labeled him a donkey. I guess i got really really lucky... poor guy

Spladle Master

03-26-2005, 02:11 AM

Ew.

Your call is terrible. Do the math.

mishafp

03-26-2005, 02:21 AM

Even if he was the biggest fish in the entire world, and had gone all-in wiht only BOTTOM PAIR (say he only had a 3), your call would have been wrong (take the 12 outs i talked about before, then add 6 more outs- this means you have 18 outs, or only a 36% chance of victory when investing 46 dollars to win a 100 pot). CALLING all in with draws on the turn when you have no made hand, unless the pot is huge, is almost always wrong.