Do you fold this hand?

[lstream]

... or is it chickening out too soon? Villain had not made a firm impression, but he seemed like an OK player.

7 Card Stud High ($3/$6), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $1.00

3rd Street

Seat 1: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif___brings-in___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds
Hero: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif___completes
Seat 5: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds
Seat 7: xx xx A/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 3/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds

4th Street

Hero: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif___bets___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___raises
Seat 7: xx xx A/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks___folds

5th Street

Hero: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif___bets

[mosquito]

I might have brought it in for a raise, makes the
rest of the hand a bit easier.

As given, I tend to fold 5th. surely behind, maybe
WAY behind.

[lstream]

[ QUOTE ]
I might have brought it in for a raise

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure what you mean here - I was not the bring-in

[mshalen]

Why don't you tell us why you folded? What hands did you put the player on and why? Then people could give some benificial advise.
With 3 threes out and a 6 I couldn't put him on a staight draw, with no diamonds out and two up then possibly/probably a flush draw. I know, you did what most people do and said 455 and a raise then he must have a pocket pair of 4s or 5s. I love raising against people who see a scary board and fold.

[Andy B]

If he has a four-flush, he's actually the favorite, especially if he has a big card that he can pair. You would want to continue in this case, though. If he has a big pocket pair, you're in trouble. If you think it is likely that he would smooth call on third with a big pocket pair and then pop it on fourth, I think it's a good fold.

[lstream]

[ QUOTE ]
I love raising against people who see a scary board and fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd rather play against players who chase an underdog hand.

I put him on two small pair on fourth - likely based on the way I play it. With something like 4's and 5's, I will usually fold or raise, not just call. As a result, the paired 4 was indeed scary to me.

It is probably just as likely he has a premium pair - kings would be my bet.

Either way, I saw myself as a likely serious underdog.

[SittingBull]

He has a 4-flush. Continue driving UNLESS he picke up another diamond. If so,FOLD.
HappyPokering,
SittingBull /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Roland]

Hi SittingBull,

A 3-bet on 4th is certainly an alternative. But when he pairs his door card on 5th, I think folding is your best option. What makes you so sure he started with a 3-flush as opposed to split 4s?

[Michael Emery]

A three-bet on fourth is a terrible idea. This is most likely a four flush with TOTALLY live diamonds. If it is a small four flush hes the slight favorite over stream. If his four flush contains overcards to streams jacks then he gains an additional 5% for each overcard. This is not a situation to be jamming.

The play on fourth was to check behind the Ace-Queen board and to the opponent who caught the live strait flush card. When he bets you should only just call. When he makes open fours you have a fold (as stream did). Sure you could be ahead with your jacks to a four flush and a pair of fours but your not really "ahead". The four flush and pair is a 60/40 favorite still. Obviously its close enough that you would call if you were certain of his holding, but you arent. The possibility that he raised with split fours (and now has trips) because he caught a scary card on fourth is real. Its far less likely that he has a large pocket pair as its kinda unnatural to raise on fourth as opposed to third, but he could. He has you in a terrible position. What are you going to do if you call here and he catches a diamond on sixth? What if he dosent, bets sixth still, and then bets the river? Are you paying off with unimproved jacks or possibly letting him steal with just fours and a broken flush draw? Just fold fifth and move on to the next hand.

Mike Emery

[timmer]

and overcard A calls a completed bet on 3rd spikes an additional OC to your pair and you bet into a suited connected live draw leaving the 2 OC's a chance to check raise?

check it on 4th.

for sure fold when the 45 open pairs.

[SittingBull]

there would be NO advantage in knocking out the 3rd player. I think he might be looking for a discount on 5th if his other diamond doesn't materialize. However,he probably would continue to drive if he is first to bet on 5th,but he would NOT raise UNLESS he had a set.
HappyPokering,
SittingBull
NOTE: One can NEVER be CERTAIN of anything in poker. It's a game of incomplete information--EVEN at the showdown.
However,one can estimate a player's hand by the upcards and the player's subsequent action(s) on later streets. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Perhaps he is signaling one or two tells according to Caro--assuming the reader has studied Caro's tells.

[SittingBull]

at this point,but stream is a MONEY FAVORITE to win over time. He's only about a 2 to 1 dog on 4th.
SittingBull
/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Andy B]

I did say that lstream would want to continue against a pair and a four-flush. Unfortunately, it is also entirely possible that he is up against two big pair or a full house, in which case he is in deep doo-doo. This here's a fold.

[mscags]

This is a clear fold in my opinion. Whenever someone has shown strength on a previous street and then pairs his door card later its a pretty good indicator he has trips or has filled up

[CarlosChadha]

Hi SittingBull,

I disagree that there would be no disadvantage of knocking out the third player if he has split 4s and a 3 flush. Getting it heads up greatly improves his chances of winning with 2 small pair and increases his folding equity by only having to convince one opponent that he has a flush with the 4th diamond, or big two pair/full house if he pairs his board. Lastly, it might allow him to take a free card later in the hand if needed.

Regards,
Carlos