Is it PC to check this turn? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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CallMeIshmael

03-25-2005, 11:34 PM

Neither of my opponents are exceptional in any catetogories... like, 38/5/1.5 types.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, Hero raises, 5 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

My logic was:

-Check raise stings
-The only cards that I really dont want to see are Qs and Ts.
-I just lost my kicker, so its not like ace-rag is paying me anymore

Too weak?

Anders

03-25-2005, 11:44 PM

I would bet and fold to a raise, I think. You made 3 good points, but at 2/4 on Party it's simply having too much respect for your opponents to expect that you don't have the best hand a majority of the time here.

Sometimes, you're going to run into a J, and sometimes it's going to be a split pot. Even if you split the pot with another A, if you get two calls that's an extra 0.5BB for you.

bungyrocks

03-25-2005, 11:45 PM

bet this turn. you may miss bets from a Q who will pay you off.

einbert

03-25-2005, 11:48 PM

I don't like it. I would have bet. Against two players there is a good chance someone is drawing quite live against you and you have to charge them.

If it were heads up I could see more value to checking to induce a river bluff.

CallMeIshmael

03-25-2005, 11:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet and fold to a raise

[/ QUOTE ]

The only problem with this is... when I bet, and am checkraised, the pot is laying be about 8-1. If I have 6 clean outs, I need 6.8-1. But, I almost certainly don't have 6 clean outs. What do you think a good estimate is? Its close at about 5 (8.2-1)

CallMeIshmael

03-25-2005, 11:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like it. I would have bet. Against two players there is a good chance someone is drawing quite live against you and you have to charge them.

If it were heads up I could see more value to checking to induce a river bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is your plan if checkraised?

einbert

03-25-2005, 11:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like it. I would have bet. Against two players there is a good chance someone is drawing quite live against you and you have to charge them.

If it were heads up I could see more value to checking to induce a river bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is your plan if checkraised?

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is small and I need to be drawing live a huge percentage of the time to make a call profitable, so I don't have a problem folding to it.
I would fold.

CallMeIshmael

03-25-2005, 11:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you may miss bets from a Q who will pay you off.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no debating that. The crux of the argument is:

Are the bets missed from someone drawing (with a K or T) or calling down with a Q worth giving up, for fear of being raised by someone holding a jack, that is giving you a free card.

(note: it is plenty possible for me to live to a jack. Hands like J8s are in their range. If there range were only Jack + broadway, then I'm a lot less live when Im checkraised)

CallMeIshmael

03-25-2005, 11:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was where I would have been confused... how many outs, on average, do you think I have?

(I noted in another post, that hands like J8s, J9s, J7s are in their range)

einbert

03-26-2005, 12:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was where I would have been confused... how many outs, on average, do you think I have?

(I noted in another post, that hands like J8s, J9s, J7s are in their range)

[/ QUOTE ]

Something a little more than 4, about 5 I guess.

I think it really depends on how much of the time you'll actually be ahead, and unless they are quite tricky I think that's very small.

KDawgCometh

03-26-2005, 12:08 AM

hmmm, that jack would be a lot nicer if it was a spade. I don't mind this check as its a small pot and a checkraise might have to make you fold top pair here

CallMeIshmael

03-26-2005, 12:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Something a little more than 4, about 5 I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you go with 5, I need 8.2-1 to make it neutral EV.

Assuming I get checkraised, I will be getting 7.75-1. Assuming I get 1BB in when I win on the river, wouldn't that make it a call?

CallMeIshmael

03-26-2005, 12:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
hmmm, that jack would be a lot nicer if it was a spade.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gimme a royal draw, and I show you a man who bets!

[ QUOTE ]

I don't mind this check as its a small pot and a checkraise might have to make you fold top pair here

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats what I really dont want to have to do. Folding hurts me inside with this hand.

einbert

03-26-2005, 12:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Something a little more than 4, about 5 I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you go with 5, I need 8.2-1 to make it neutral EV.

Assuming I get checkraised, I will be getting 7.75-1. Assuming I get 1BB in when I win on the river, wouldn't that make it a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess it's closer than I thought.

If you hit your ace obviously it's good, but if you hit a king and raise and get 3-bet you will have to call. And a worse hand than your broadway straight will just call your raise. So I'm not sure.

CallMeIshmael

03-26-2005, 12:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I guess it's closer than I thought.

If you hit your ace obviously it's good, but if you hit a king and raise and get 3-bet you will have to call. And a worse hand than your broadway straight will just call your raise. So I'm not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically, I really really didn't want be checkraised in this hand... so, I was (on the river). Call or fold?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, Hero raises, 5 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.75 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB raises, UTG folds, Hero...

cnfuzzd

03-26-2005, 12:34 AM

First, i bet. I think its an easy bet. Loose players love to call flop bets with little to nothing, and will be much more likely to give up on the turn. With a hand as strong as TP with no overs possible, im value betting this turn.

As for dealing with a checkraise, thats more difficult, sort of. I think you have an easy call on the checkraise itself, but do you call a river bet unimproved. This is where a read would be nice, as your opponent could be checkraising a scare card that he thinks might have also brought him half the pot. I think im calling the river here unimproved, but im not sure thats correct because i substantial portion of the time that im not losing this pot, i may be splitting it, reducing the EV of calling.

peace

john nickle

CallMeIshmael

03-26-2005, 12:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
as your opponent could be checkraising a scare card that he thinks might have also brought him half the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without a read that includes "he's a two plus twoer" this is almost certainly impossible.

cnfuzzd

03-26-2005, 01:26 AM

while by no means frequent, i see moves like this fairly regularly, though this is at the 3/6 and not 2/4, and i am willing to agree that your statement probably better describes the 2/4 metagame.

However, to always assume that a checkraise here means a J is somewhat weak, IMO. My memory is like a leaky sieve on a rusty scow, but i remember seeing desperation raises with hands like 77 here at all levels of party ive played on. Purely anecdotal though.

Regardless, i think you are either free rolling against a small ace, or value betting against a weaker hand, or charging a draw often enough on this turn to justfiy a bet. Especially since if your opponents arent savvy enough to raise this scare card they may also be dense enough to throw away their now two pair.

peace

john nickle