What do do with this draw on the bubble? [Archive]

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parax

03-25-2005, 09:39 PM

5+.50 1 table SNG
4 players left , no real reads, BB was decently tight.
mainly , did i make the right call with all my outs?
i'm still new , and ITM is good enough

************************
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button (t2495)
Hero (t3580)
BB (t4610)
UTG (t2815)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls t200, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t600) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t1000, UTG raises to t2000, Hero calls t2000, BB calls t1000.

Turn: (t6600) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t2410 (All-In), UTG calls t615 (All-In), Hero ??????

the BB was pretty tight all night , and seeing them go all in on the turn make me think at least UTG was beat , and if i didn't make my draw , at least i'd go out in 3rd....

(still new , whopping 78 SnG's under my belt at the 5.50 range , with 40% ITM , but only a 6.99 ROI% (had a recent nasty nasty losing streak)

Any thoughts on my play as a whole would be great. Thanks

parax

03-25-2005, 09:40 PM

Results for the curious new player types like me...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button (t2495)
Hero (t3580)
BB (t4610)
UTG (t2815)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls t200, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t600) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t1000, UTG raises to t2000, Hero calls t2000, BB calls t1000.

Turn: (t6600) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t2410 (All-In), UTG calls t615 (All-In), Hero calls t1380 (All-In).

River: (t11005) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players, 3 all-in)

Final Pot: t11005
Main Pot: t8445 (t8445), between Hero, BB and UTG. > Pot won by Hero (t8445).
Pot 2: t1530 (t1530), between Hero and BB. > Pot won by Hero (t1530).
Pot 3: t1030 (t1030), returned to BB.

Results in white below: 
Hero has 8s Ts (straight, ten high).
BB has Qh 2s (two pair, queens and twos).
UTG has Ad Qd (one pair, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins t9975. BB wins t1030.

Phil Van Sexton

03-25-2005, 09:45 PM

- Fold preflop
- Checkraise allin on the flop, even after the unfortunate min-raise.
- Give us more than 1 minute before posting results

willperkins

03-25-2005, 09:47 PM

I'm no expert, but I fold after the someone bet and and then someone else raises the flop.

Your pot odds are 1.8 to 1. You have 15 outs, but have negative pot odds of 2.13 to 1 to make the str8 or flush.

On top of that, not all 15 outs are good because you could make the str8 or flush and still have the 2nd best hand by losing to a higer str8 or higher flush.

IMHO

Fold the flop.

Phil Van Sexton

03-25-2005, 10:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your pot odds are 1.8 to 1. You have 15 outs, but have negative pot odds of 2.13 to 1 to make the str8 or flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not really sure how you get 2.13:1.

T8s vs AQ (http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=Qs+9h+7s&d=&h=Ac+Qd%0D%0ATs+8s) = 56.77%

This is a push on the flop after the raise.

willperkins

03-25-2005, 10:21 PM

Phil,

I respect your posts a lot and bow to your expertise. This was the way I was looking at it:

Pot odds:

t600 + t1000 + t2000 = t3600

If he calls the t2000 it is 1.8 to 1.

He has 15 outs (nine /images/graemlins/spade.gifs, three 6s, and 3 Jacks.

32/15 = 2.13 to 1 if he calls.

However, after rethinking the hand, if he is going to call, he should go ahead an push because it will cost him 55% of his stack to call the t2000.

That would make his pot odds around 2.6 to 1 if they both call.

However, I would still worry about making the 2nd best hand with two others in the pot.

Please tell me where my thinking goes wrong.

lastchance

03-25-2005, 10:22 PM

Yeah, I like CRing all-in on the flop. I might actually fold preflop, though completing is probably fine, and better.

microbet

03-25-2005, 10:32 PM

Why not just bet the flop? It's not like you are way ahead, so it wouldn't be terrible if they folded.

Phil Van Sexton

03-25-2005, 10:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
32/15 = 2.13 to 1 if he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a str8-flush draw, all my chips are going in on the flop. Now you get to see the turn AND river. This is where your odds are wrong. You only figured the odds for the turn. It's really 32/15 + 31/15 - (32/15 * 31/14), I think.

[ QUOTE ]
However, I would still worry about making the 2nd best hand with two others in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another reason to push. A push might get the original bettor to fold. You don't want to be up against a bigger draw and a made hand (like JJ or A9).

If you are up against a bigger flush draw, you lose your flush outs, but you pick up some outs because a T or 8 may now win.

Phil Van Sexton

03-25-2005, 10:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just bet the flop? It's not like you are way ahead, so it wouldn't be terrible if they folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting out is not ideal. Here is a quote from Paul Phillips (http://www.livejournal.com/users/extempore/43850.html) on a straight-flush draw hand:

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is in a specific, important category of hands: those that cannot be large dogs (absolute worst case scenario you're a 2-1 dog, and even if he has a set you're only 3-2) but also cannot be large favorites -- you are at real risk to end up with queen high after all.

With this category of hands you must try to engineer the betting so that you are all-in first. You need folding equity in this situation more than in any other situation where you like your hand. If your opponent folds he will invariably be folding the best made hand, and this can never be a bad thing for you.

So if moving all-in on the flop is not a giant overbet you should do that, and if it is, then you should go for a check-raise. The nice thing about check-raising hands like this is that it's risk free; if he checks behind you it's no skin off your nose. A free card is just fine with this hand.

I'm sure you would have been called in this scenario by AJ, but that's no tragedy. It's the alternate universes where the guy lays down second pair or whatever that make getting all-in first important.

[/ QUOTE ]

curtains

03-25-2005, 11:54 PM

I agree with checking on the flop, with the intention of check raising. Unfortunately when it's bet AND raised to you, now you have a much tougher decision. I feel like folding is the correct choice due to the prize structure. If this was a winner take all tournament I would put my chips in and gamble, as you seriously have a powerhouse draw.

Once I was in your situation on the turn I would call the allin, and hope the shortstack loses, so you will at least get 3rd place anyway. By the way notice how bad it is to call for 2000 on the flop to just see one card (Which would be the case if you planned to fold on the turn). This is something you MUST avoid when you have such a draw, often by putting all your chips in on the flop, or simply folding if the pot odds don't look sufficient.

microbet

03-26-2005, 12:09 AM

"So if moving all-in on the flop is not a giant overbet you should do that, and if it is, then you should go for a check-raise. The nice thing about check-raising hands like this is that it's risk free; if he checks behind you it's no skin off your nose. A free card is just fine with this hand."

I guess it is a pretty big overbet, but you are on the bubble. If you weren't on the bubble, it is definately a giant overbet, but is it when you are? I think you want the most FE. Depending on the game you could decide what give the most FE.

I guess if you think either a check or a small bet are more likely then check/raise is good, but if you think a big bet or push are likely then you should push first.

Phil Van Sexton

03-26-2005, 12:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunately when it's bet AND raised to you, now you have a much tougher decision. I feel like folding is the correct choice due to the prize structure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying this because this is a 5/.50?

You are probably even money at worst to win, and there's already a lot of extra money in the pot. If the original bettor calls, you may have a 50+% chance to take out 2 players.

If you lose, you'll still have a few chips to try to come back.

Unless you are assuming a huge advantage over 5/.50 players, I think its a push.

curtains

03-26-2005, 12:37 AM

Honestly I don't know the answer. It's so sick to check and have it bet and raised back to you.

Once again, in a normal type of prize structure I'd never just fold the hand, however its possible that the prize structure of 50-30-20, makes it foldable. I could definitely be wrong, I sometimes have trouble with my feel in these sit and go bubble situations where there is almost no folding equity.

C M Burns

03-26-2005, 03:06 AM

I used to think that the payout structure of sng's should effect ones strategy, but after reading the harrington book i think just thinking about chip ev is the most important consideration. Outside of perhaps some unusuall bubble situations, like the presence of a very small stack.

Here on the flop your hand is a s good as AQ if not better, and the check raise idea seem best. All the action is a little worisome but reall it is still likley most of your outs are live, a7s is the only draw that would makes sense for them to have. So you are looking at abou 2-1 odds with an even money had, even if one has a set you are still getting the right odds to call allin. I think pushing allin on the flop is best (after your check), if you are to call it would be to be sure the BB calls, and you would have to then be allin on the turn, but he would prob call the allin if he were to call the first raise.

bigredlemon

03-26-2005, 07:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
- Fold preflop
- Checkraise allin on the flop, even after the unfortunate min-raise.
- Give us more than 1 minute before posting results

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd strongly agree with everything, except wouldn't completely rule out limping with 8Ts in SB. Assuming loose passive players, it's well worth a look on the flop given your stack size and the relatively smallish blinds.

curtains

03-26-2005, 08:45 AM

Yeah, I would NEVER fold this hand preflop in this situation.