Masters Picks/Lines

I have not seen the prices on Masters picks yet, but intend to bet small amounts on the tournament when I am in Las Vegas. Woods is always a good pick, but I think the odds will be too short on him. (Most U.S. golf lines are too low in general IMO) Without yet seeing the odds, I intend to look strongly at Olazabel, as I mentioned in the post on Mickelson. If he's 10-1 or better I will probably bet him. Less than 10-1 I doubt it, but will think about it. He has played well this year, including at the now very long Torrey Pines. His short game is great. He can hit his irons. I think he will be overlooked because he is a short hitter. I think some short hitters will contend because of the added length at Augusta, as counter-intuitive as that sounds. But the short hitters are used to hitting wedges into the par 5's and having to hit them close to make birdie. They are also used to hitting middle to long irons. This will help. I will look at Kuchar because of his record at Augusta and the fact he has proven he has the ability to win. Playing his way onto the tour in 7 events after passing on guaranteed riches in his college career proved it, as did his win earlier in the year. There may be a good price on him, 20-1 and I'm on it. I will pass on Howell, regardless of price, who has gotten some press. Too excited to play and has never won. Obviously no non-winner has ever won the Masters because they never let non-winners in until recently, but I don't think you can stand up to the heat in your first Masters without a prior win. He also thinks the moon landing is a hoax, which proves he's ignorant and irrational.(Can't figure out how the flag stuck out without atmosphere. Hasn't bothered to think or check it out.) Not the guy I will put my cash on in other words. I doubt the odds on Sergio will be good enough. I can't watch the re-grip waggles anyway, reminds me of this obnoxious alcoholic lawyer I had the misfortune of caddieing for. He still took less than 1/3 the time after 20 drinks though. I have always liked Duval, but will need some odds to pick him this year. He hasn't been sharp of late.


I won't bet Mickelson at less than 50-1. I think the over/under on career majors for him is now 1/2. I saw he was -6 after 13 today, but didn't see his final score. Expect him to play great at the long-hitter-favoring Atlanta course this week and be bet down. Then a Normanesque detonation at Augusta if he plays well. Missed cut or back in the field otherwise. (There's the reverse jinx that will get Phil his jacket, eh?)

You are actually telling me that you would NOT be Mickelson at 40 to 1?? Are you completely insane??


Until two majors ago, he had exactly the same number of majors as Duval, whom you mention above...


Regardless of whether or not Mickelson has won a major, he is without any doubt the second most talented player in the world today..


I admit that he may not win many majors, but simple logic states that he will win at least one just because he puts himself in contention at so many of them...


HOWEVER, seeing as Phil will likely be going off at less than 10 to 1, I would think about throwing some cash at Dimarco (depending on the line).. He's a guy whose been around a few years now playing some good golf, and he is off to a great start this year... It's time for him to step it up at the major level..


Agree on Jose Maria, but you'd have to give me at least 10 to 1... At a price less than that, the value isn't there..


Another guy to watch is Mike Weir who constantly puts himself into contention with his steady play... This guy will win at least a few majors before he's done....

Yeah, Mickelson at 40-1 would be tempting, but I put the true odds on him THIS YEAR at over 100-1. He is totally on tilt. I mentioned this below in my post on Mickelson, but when he said he has to play aggressively to keep the game interesting, he was admitting he has no chance in the majors. He may mature psychologically and win something in the future. He is more than talented enough to win now, but it will probably happen only if he gets so far ahead he can't possibly lose. Or if he gets injured or sick. This sounds insane, but I'm not insane. If he had a big distraction like an injury he would focus on that and lower his expectations. He wouldn't try to do more than he was capable of and would play within himself. If he is physically sharp but in the mental state he displayed at Bay Hill and the Players, 100-1 is charitable. You can't 9-putt from 3 feet at the Players and expect to be able to putt at Augusta, which has much tougher greens. You can't make totally idiotic decisions like on the par 5 at Bay Hill and expect to compete in a major. I like Mickelson. I'd like to see him win. I doubt he can.

Di Marco might be tempting though.

Fair enough.. I just think that no matter what Phil says, if he's going into a long par 4 18 with a two shot lead on Sunday, he will play it safe..

WSEX just posted lines today, and here is what I think. Jose Maria Olazabel has an excellent chance. Obviously he loves Augusta, and he has been playing very solidly this year. I will place a moderate wager on him @ 18-1. I also like DiMarco, especially @ 36-1. He can post some very low scores, but has had the tendency to blow up in at least one round per tournament. I'm worried he has some Mickelson-like tendencies to not be able to close the deal. 36-1, however, is very juicy. Tiger is posted @ 9-4. I think he would be a good value @ 5-2 or preferrably 3-1.


I will also place a small bet on Retief Goosen, who is pretty hot right now @ 26-1, and a flyer on Rory Sabatini @ 115-1.


Good luck.

These look like much better prices than the ones I saw in Las Vegas. As I said above, I didn't shop all over or agonize much, and I don't have my odds sheet from the Mirage in front of me, but I would have made more bets with those odds. I think Olazabel was 10-1 at Caesar's. Di Marco I think was around 18-1 or something. I would have bet him at 36-1.

VJ Singh was 15 to 1 at the Mirage last time I checked. Anyone seen better odds for him?

Don't know. But belly putter guys don't win the Masters. If you need it you can't win. Tiger said the greens were 13-14 already. They are turning blue. The club says its because it might rain later in the week. Yeah, ok. Vijay may be a good enough ball striker to find decent spots on the greens, but his putting will let him down.

I'd put a lot more stock in past results at Augusta and recent player performance. VJ won a couple years ago and destroyed the field a couple of weeks ago. These two facts mean a hell of lot more than putter style.


15 to 1 for a top notch player in his prime seems attractive to me.

Certainly worse bets. You make a good point.