Do I Need to Make This Call To Make The Final Table?

[WinBig]

Stars $5 Rebuy tourney - 36 players left - blinds 4000/8000 and 400 ante. I have 114K and min-raise UTG+1 with KsQs. The table has been very tight and folding to any pre-flop raises - even min raises. Maybe not the best play pre-flop but my concern is with what to do on the flop.

I got three callers - second biggest stack (236K) in MP, table leader (260K) in SB and the BB (85K). Pot is roughly 66K and the flop is 2s,3s,6h. SB chip leader goes all-in and is called by BB medium stack. I have the second nut flush draw but my overcards are probably not any good based on the action. I figured I was up against at least AA, AK or AQ and decided to muck. I just felt that putting my tourney on the second nut flush draw wasn't a good move.

Thoughts? I would be getting 2-1 on a call with 205K in the pot and 98K left in my stack. Is this an easy call? If I win the pot I am among the chip leaders. I folded and still had a dedent size stack to work with which I got all-in pre-flop with AK suited against QQ. Is a coin flip a better play than calling an all-in for 2-1 odds with the second nut flush draw?

For what its worth in this hand the SB had [8d 8s] and the BB had [7s 7d] with the final board showing [2s 3s 6h Jc Tc]. I didn't have a good read on either player.

[MLG]

I fold. This hand isn't in bad shape against one other player, but against two you could be in serious trouble.

[davidross]

with 3 callers I wouldn't put anyone on AA AK OR AQ, those hands would be unlikely to just call your min raise. If your K or Q are good, you are even money to win this pot so a call woulod seem to be in order, and against just 1 big stack all-in I'd be tempted to call because it looks like he's trying hard to shut you out.

The bigger question is whether you like your chances against this bunch further down the line. You still have enough chips to get your money in as a favorite, not just coinflips, which is really what you're facing now. I like the fold.

[sloth469]

[ QUOTE ]
... the flop is 2s,3s,6h. SB chip leader goes all-in and is called by BB medium stack. I have the second nut flush draw but my overcards are probably not any good based on the action. I figured I was up against at least AA, AK or AQ and decided to muck. I just felt that putting my tourney on the second nut flush draw wasn't a good move.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well the range you figure you're up against is ridiculous concidering the flop and them not re-raising you preflop. I automatically thought middle pairs here, maybe a set. But nothing premium. I figure you have 12 outs twice if one of your over cards is live, if they both are 15 outs. Given my read it is an easy call, given yours it isn't. This is why being honest with yourself on possible ranges is so important.

-sloth

[PktAcesSoWht]

good fold, you have a plenty of chips to work with. I would not risk it in this situation against two other people in the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
I fold. This hand isn't in bad shape against one other player, but against two you could be in serious trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's assume in the above game that hero was heads up against either SB (chip leader) or SB folded but BB pushes, what is your take?

[captainzodiac]

i would rarely make this call,although in a $5 buy in and a chance to be around chip lead i certainly would be tempted,especially before getting to the money,still i'd be way more inclined to fold.some of the greatest players always say you should never chase in no limit,and that would most certainly be a chase that you are starting behind in,no matter what your opponent called your raise with,that being said never is a long time,and you might have called, gotten lucky and went on to win because you took that chance. in a larger buy in,i wouldn't even consider going broke on a flush draw in a tourney that i'm around average stack in.

[MLG]

I'm not pleased with it, but i call and expect to have 15 outs most of the time.

[U235]

Bad hands for you to be up against:

AsXs (very bad)
set (bad)
AsA (not too bad)
54 (almost OK)

Everything else I believe you'd be 35 - 55% to win, with a small bonus of winning a side pot if you can just beat the chip leader. As is only one card in the deck; I'd guess that the chip leader or small stack would play any flush draw (As, 6s, or other) this way, or pocket pair, or top pair. Chip leader may be willing to slowplay a set, so that may get discounted. Given the low entry price for the blinds, suited connectors and low suited aces are quite possible. There are many more top pairs and pocket pairs than there are sets, and maybe slightly more playable low flush draws than Ace flush draws.

I'd estimate your chances of winning against a bad hand at 20 - 25%, and your chances at 45% otherwise. To be simple, you need to be about 50% sure (combined) you're not up against a bad hand to make this a +CEV play.

I'd call.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold. This hand isn't in bad shape against one other player, but against two you could be in serious trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a flush draw. You are probably in better shape against 2 players than 1, since you are getting a better payoff if you win.

With the hands your opponents had, you were almost even to win the hand, but you were getting better than 2-1 on your money.

It was pretty loose of your opponents putting their huge stacks allin with slight overpairs. That seems like loose $5 rebuy play, even if the preflop play was tight.

With all the action, I would be worried someone had a set. A set is all you are worried about, except a nut flush draw. If one opponent had two pair or a set and the other had a nut flush draw, you would be pretty much drawing dead.

Overall, I think calling is slightly EV+, even if it will probably knock you out of the tournament. I would call and gamble for the big money.

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
You have a flush draw. You are probably in better shape against 2 players than 1, since you are getting a better payoff if you win.


[/ QUOTE ]

In situations like this if you are against a nut flush draw and a pair you are pretty toasted. I'm not saying a call is wrong here, but it isnt a clear cut case of the two other people increasing your odds. Against one you are pretty much never worse than a coinflip with lots of dead money in the middle.