AA hand, what is my river action?

[DMBFan23]

Sup y'all

this is a loose table, with a couple tight players who happened to be in this particular hand with me. EP pulled a sweet bet-call then check-raise move on me with a set earlier, so he's got a little tricky in him. the Button shows a decent amount of aggression. I'm mad that he acts after me, but the rest of the table is good so I stay.

Party 2/4, 10 handed.

tight and kind of passive overall limps in EP, and I raise with A/images/graemlins/club.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I'm cold called by just slightly too loose preflop, but aggressive pre and postflop player on the button. both blinds and EP call.

Flop (5 players, 10 SB) K /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
SB checks, BB checks, EP bets. I raise, Button calls, blinds fold. EP calls.

turn (3 players, 8 BB): Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif
EP bets, I raise, Button 3-bets, EP calls, I call.

river: (3 players, 17 BB): 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
EP checks, hero checks, Button bets, EP folds, Hero???

[afk]

I would have called. But why does it say "blinds fold" on the flop when the BB is in on the turn? Or is it the button who 3bet the turn?

Anyways I probably would have called expecting to see something like KQs from the button.

[DMBFan23]

fixed, it was button that 3 bet.

[Jeffage]

Easy as pie call for one bet in this large pot. You'll probably look at KQ or a set, but you have huge odds and sometimes he'll have a king, busted straight, etc.

Jeff

[DMBFan23]

What busted straight are we putting button on?

[Jeffage]

Maybe he had something like J /images/graemlins/club.gif10 /images/graemlins/club.gif, made a loose call on the flop and decided to make a play on the turn. Unlikely but possible. People like to do crazy [censored] online. More likely you're beat by two pair or a set. Basically, you're probably beaten here but folding for one bet on the river would be horrific play even if the guy in front of you called also. It's a good way to go broke.

Jeff

[stevew]

I'd call the river and not be surprised if shown 7 7.

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe he had something like J /images/graemlins/club.gif10 /images/graemlins/club.gif, made a loose call on the flop and decided to make a play on the turn. Unlikely but possible. People like to do crazy [censored] online. More likely you're beat by two pair or a set. Basically, you're probably beaten here but folding for one bet on the river would be horrific play even if the guy in front of you called also. It's a good way to go broke.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you about online players being wack jobs, I just don't think he can be bluffing with JT like that on the turn. I see your point in general though.

[Ass Master]

Call.

I don't see how you could be worse than an 18:1 dog to have the best hand here. Even if you are, you are probably not much worse, and you can use the information gained about the button's play to make up for the EV shortfall on future hands.

I don't advocate raising because the button's transition from passive on the flop to aggressive on the turn means that he probably (a) already had a big hand on the flop or (b) got one on the turn. You're likely to be behind to KQs, 33 or 77, assuming that the button would cold-call with these hands preflop.

[sinfulslick18]

i would definetly call that river bet. Even though you have a small chance of winning it the pot is too big to give away.

-sinful

[DMBFan23]

try assigning a percentage of the time that Button OR EP have one of the following hands:

KQs
KQo
77
33
AK
KJ

EDIT:

KK
QQ
AA
other (please specify)

[Jeffage]

If you think there isn't a 5.5% chance he has one pair here (or just randomly decided to play bad), you're way off base. Folding for one bet in these spots is very bad poker.

Jeff

[DMBFan23]

it's all good, you don't have to worry about me /images/graemlins/smile.gif

think of it as just a fun mental exercise. I think we should do the math on these kinds of things every now and then.

and by "he", you mean both opponents right? EP bet out on the turn, then called 2 cold after I raised and button 3 bet. that says more than "I have JT" IMO.

[DMBFan23]

I didn't play this hand. GOT played a similar one, and folded. (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=560235&page=1&view=collap sed&sb=7&o=&fpart=1&vc=1)

the point is not the fold versus the call (you can read that in the thread if you want) but the point is that we often dogmatically "call in big pots" without analyzing what our opponents might have.

[meep_42]

Thanks for the link -- fantastic read.

-d

[ErrantNight]

i can think of at least two huge differences between GoT's hand and this one that make his a much clearer fold than your imaginary hand. care to take a guess as to what they are?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
i can think of at least two huge differences between GoT's hand and this one that make his a much clearer fold than your imaginary hand. care to take a guess as to what they are?

[/ QUOTE ]


OVERCALLING (!!!!!!!!!)
GoT had an actual read

[DMBFan23]

crap I typed it wrong. EP was supposed to call in my example too.

[ErrantNight]

you win! when i'm done baking these cookies i'll send you one.

[ErrantNight]

i also think you should clarify the read on the button. GoT's was much more specific.

[DMBFan23]

i suck

EDIT: I also would not have made this fold if it was me playing the hand, I'm not trying to pretend I would have. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ErrantNight]

you downgraded your avatar. it was to be expected.

[DMBFan23]

it's about to get changed when I lose the open challenge anyway /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[sthief09]

I like this style of posts. in the past I've posted Roy Cooke hands though no good discussion ever started from them.

[DMBFan23]

if I learn to do it right it'd be the money. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[cassady]

Is Guy On Tilt someone I should recognise?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Is Guy On Tilt someone I should recognise?

[/ QUOTE ]


no, he's just a good player who posts here