Playing AQ like AK...

[dfscott]

MP was fairly conservative, but played pairs strongly. SB was a maniac -- he played everything and he had pushed two flops with total junk.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t1235)
Button (t1490)
SB (t1244)
Hero (t920)
UTG (t905)
UTG+1 (t1945)
MP1 (t250)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t250 (All-in)</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls t250, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t900 (All-in)</font>,...

Thoughts?

[Simplistic]

i'm fine with the push there.

[curtains]

Looks totally fine to me. I think that moving allin is clearly correct over calling. You are not so concerned with knocking out a player, and your hand is very unlikely to be dominated, but reasonably likely to be dominating.

[Raiser]

[ QUOTE ]

Looks totally fine to me. I think that moving allin is clearly correct over calling. You are not so concerned with knocking out a player, and your hand is very unlikely to be dominated, but reasonably likely to be dominating.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100% with curtains here.

[Rolen]

Yup, unless caller has a history of tricky trap plays, this is fine.

Edit.. PS : PUJOLS BABY!

[Scuba Chuck]

Regarding the SB, you said he "pushed" two flops with junk. What do you mean? Do you mean he's doing stop-n-gos? Also, has he been calling allins with junk?

Regarding your play here, even with a loose SB, I like it.

Reasons:
AQo is a nice hand 'hot and cold.'
SB, IMO, is likely to fold
You're now risking 150 into a 600 pot. 4:1 pot odds.

This is a great overlay. Furthermore, assuming you win, you're sitting on t1420, and permits you some serious patience as the other guys battle it out. Meanwhile you can begin to study who the 'tight' players are for FE opportunities going forward.

There are a lot of other factors to consider as well. If you lose, you're now sitting at t670, which is still a very workable stack in this situation. In fact, it's a stack we're all probably used to working with on level 4. So once again, if you lost, you'd be in a comfortable position. Finally, if SB plays, and you win, well, need I say more.

As far as should you be worried about any hands they might have? NO . If they have AA, KK, QQ, AQ, it's just the luck of the draw.

One last thought. This is a $10+1, I don't think SB is crafty enough to just call with AA here. So I wouldn't worry about that either. (Don't know if this is where you were leading with your question.)

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Regarding the SB, you said he "pushed" two flops with junk. What do you mean? Do you mean he's doing stop-n-gos? Also, has he been calling allins with junk?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. Called the flop in a round 2 hand. A ragged flop came, everyone checked to him, he pushed, got called by another maniac. He showed a T9o that totally missed the board. The other guy had A-high and took it down. He was just lucky that it was a short-stack that called him.

[ QUOTE ]
There are a lot of other factors to consider as well. If you lose, you're now sitting at t670, which is still a very workable stack in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

This scenario assumes that the SB folds to my all-in, right? He does have me covered, so there is some risk of busting out here -- if he calls and I lose to him, I'm out.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
There are a lot of other factors to consider as well. If you lose, you're now sitting at t670, which is still a very workable stack in this situation.


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This scenario assumes that the SB folds to my all-in, right? He does have me covered, so there is some risk of busting out here -- if he calls and I lose to him, I'm out.

[/ QUOTE ]

BTW, your chipstacks don't add up to 8000. Only 7989.
Intuitively, based on the facts you've provided, this seems like a +$EV play.

I'll use 7989 for the $EV analysis.

Folding = 10.9% (assumes MP1 wins, 11.1% if he loses)

Pushing, SB folds, win = 17.8%
Pushing, SB folds, lose = 9.07%
Pushing, SB calls, win all= 24.2%
Pushing, SB Calls, win SB, lose MP1 = 16.8%
Pushing, SB calls, lose = 0

Lots of variables here. But essentially, if you make some unfavorable assumptions, and it still comes out to be +$EV, it should make some sense.

Assumption 1: SB folds 40% of the time
(I think very unfavorable assumption here)
Assumption 2: Hand Ranges
HR(L) = Hand Range - loose range
MP1 22+, Ax, Kx, QT+
SB 55+, Ax, Any two broadway cards
HR(T) = Hand Range - tight range
MP1 55+, Axs, A7+, KT+, QTs+
SB 55+, A7+, Any two broadway cards

AQo fairs as follows:
HR(MP1-only, using T): 58.7%
HR(L): 40.9%
HR(T): 38.5%
(Side Note: 3 way assumptions took pokerstove some serious time to configure. After 7 min, only 10% complete. These numbers are only after 10% completion)

Pushing(HR(L)) = (.4)(.587)(.178)+(.4)(.413)(.0907)+(.6)(.409)(.242 )+(.6)(.29)(.168)+0
Pushing(HR(L)) = 14.54%

Pushing(HR(T)) = (.4)(.587)(.178)+(.4)(.413)(.0907)+(.6)(.385)(.242 )+(.6)(.3075)(.168)+0
Pushing(HR(T)) = 14.36%

Assuming the variable I used for "Push, SB calls, beat SB, lose MP1" is correct, this is a +$EV play.

Also, if you change the probability that SB folds to even higher numbers, the $EV numbers don't change that much, in fact, I think they might fall slightly. So if SB is really as loose as you say, it's slightly more +$EV if he calls.

Whew, lot more work than I was expecting.

EDIT: I need some serious math help. What HR (card equity) variable do I use for HERO beats SB, but loses to MP1?

[Voltron87]

I like it. Though only with the 250 call by SB, not otherwise. But I think you realize that, I'm not trying to be condescending.

[microbet]

I don't see what you mean. Do you mean you fold your BB if SB folds? Or just pushes?

As for the OP, I like the push and think it is just playing AQ like AQ at this point. The SB call could be AA or KK, but more often "let's play nice and get rid of short stack" and when you hear hoof beats, think horses not zebras.

[dfscott]

Thanks, all, for the feedback. Here's how it came down:

SB called my all-in. Board comes:
J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif and the dreaded river is the 5/images/graemlins/club.gif

Short stack: 66
SB: K5o
Result: MHING.

I felt like my play was almost automatic at the time, and when I saw what both of them had, they had almost exactly what I expected. However, after busting out (and tilting), I ran the numbers and didn't feel like it was such an obvious call.

I put SB on 22+, AT+ or any two cards with paint. I'm about a coin-flip to that, which is what I expected.

I then ran the numbers against two random cards where one is at least a T (or any pair), and I'm about 63% there, which is about the best I can expect.

So, since my $EV vs the short-stack is effectively $0, I'm really looking at this like any other situation where I have AQ and I'm facing a pre-flop limper. In that case, I would probably push. If I'm looking at SB's call like a legitimate raise and/or raise calling hand, I'd probably fold (just given that it's early). Which way would most of you look at this?

In any case, I think I just got unlucky.

P.S. Scuba: I had to hand convert this since the converter didn't like it for some reason. I must've mangled the SB's stack. He had 1255, not 1244.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
I put SB on 22+, AT+ or any two cards with paint. I'm about a coin-flip to that, which is what I expected.

I then ran the numbers against two random cards where one is at least a T (or any pair), and I'm about 63% there, which is about the best I can expect.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you do if SB had folded? Seems like a call to me, depending on your read. The second range of hands may be too broad, but the first is probably too narrow. He only has 250 and is about to hit the blinds. I think any A and maybe any K will do it for him. That makes you a 61% favorite and adding some suited connectors would make it a little higher.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I put SB on 22+, AT+ or any two cards with paint. I'm about a coin-flip to that, which is what I expected.

I then ran the numbers against two random cards where one is at least a T (or any pair), and I'm about 63% there, which is about the best I can expect.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you do if SB had folded?

[/ QUOTE ]

Once I saw short-stack all-in, I had definitely planned to call. Two callers might've made me reconsider.