Folding To A Turn Raise Versus An Unknown

[gaming_mouse]

Villain had just sat down. Even though I see plenty of turn raise bluffs at party 3/6, I still felt that calling down was -EV. Just want a sanity check on that -- is this turn fold easy?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP3 folds, SB calls.

Turn: (8 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

[mr pink]

i think folding would have been fine without the T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in your hand, but as it is... you have to call the turn.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
i think folding would have been fine without the T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in your hand, but as it is... you have to call the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

probly right, but i was thinking that i could easily be up against a made flush already, one of my outs is tainted for a boat redraw, and my flush redraw could easily be no good too. without doing the math, a call may still be in order tho.

[mr pink]

do me a favor and post the math if you can, it's an area of my game that i need to work on.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
do me a favor and post the math if you can, it's an area of my game that i need to work on.

[/ QUOTE ]

okay. help me get started by posting what you think his possible range is.

[mr pink]

unknown raising from the small blind...

AA-TT, AKs-AQs, KQs ? that might be a little off though.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
unknown raising from the small blind...

AA-TT, AKs-AQs, KQs ? that might be a little off though.

[/ QUOTE ]

we also need to incorporate the info of his turn raise. How's this:

KQ
QJs
AK
AA
AQ
AJs

[mr pink]

looks good to me.

[einbert]

I probably would have called the turn for the flush draw/boat outs and folded the river unimproved.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]


KQ
QJs
AK
AA
AQ
AJs

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, so the question is, Do we have odds to peel?

KQ - 4 combos

In this case, we are drawing dead.

QJs - 2 combos

In this case, we have 8+2 = 10 outs.

AK with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif - 3 combos

2 outs

AK without A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif - 9 combos

9 +2 = 11 outs.

AA with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif - 3 combos

2 outs.

AA without A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif - 3 combos

11 outs.

AQ with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif - 2 combos

2 outs.

AQ without A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif - 6 combos

8+2 = 10 outs.

AJ of diamonds - 1 combo

2 outs.

We can now calculate out weighted average number of outs:

(0*4 + 2*10 + 3*2 + 9*11 + 3*2 + 3*11 + 2*2 + 6*10 + 1*2) / 33 = 6.96

Which easily gives us odds to peel.

[mr pink]

thanks for taking the time to work that out and explain it. but i don't understand how this comes to benefit you until after the hand is played out. what i mean to ask you, is how does this effect your decisions in later hands?

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for taking the time to work that out and explain it. but i don't understand how this comes to benefit you until after the hand is played out. what i mean to ask you, is how does this effect your decisions in later hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

good question. the idea is that if you do it enough you will get a sense for different situations. it will hone your instincts. that is, the next time a similar situation comes up, i'll know I can peel. but no, i don't think there are many people who can do this kind of thing in their head at the table. that is not the benefit. the benefit is knowing wheater or not you made correct decisions, and studying as much of your play like this as you can, so that your decisions eventually improve from the accumulated knowledge.

EDIT: another big benefit of doing this is that it makes you question yourself. these kinds of analyses often dissuade me from incorrect beliefs that would otherwise persist.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
your decisions eventually improve from the accumulated knowledge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.

http://www.abugames.com/i/content/version/15/NEAccumulatedKnowledge.jpg

(yes I'm a tad drunk no I'm not ribbing anyone I love you guys ^__^)

[mr pink]

i don't think you have enough mana in your bankroll for such a spell.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think you have enough mana in your bankroll for such a spell.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't make me pull it out dood ^_^

http://www.werner-dz.de/images/kartenscans/black-lotus-alpha.jpg

[mr pink]

LOL. nice.

[pyroponic]

lol MTG...so i'm not the only nerd in here =)

I remember playing this back when I was like 15...I really liked my deck's style (tight agressive I guess you could call it). It was so damn cheap but I could never find anyone around to play in the small town I lived in, glad I found another strategic card game =)

From what I remember my deck was like 12 dual lands (R/G/B), 4 Juzam's, 4 Erhnam's, 4 Hypnotic Specters, etc. Then like 4 Giant Growths, 4 Blood Lusts, etc. mixed in with some restricted cards (Library of Alexandria, Sol Ring, Fork, Berserk, Regrowth, Demonic Tutor, etc.)

hehe man do I miss that deck, anytime I did play they'd be pissed cause the game would be over in the first 10 hands...

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
We can now calculate out weighted average number of outs:

(0*4 + 2*10 + 3*2 + 9*11 + 3*2 + 3*11 + 2*2 + 6*10 + 1*2) / 33 = 6.96

Which easily gives us odds to peel.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, how did you get the wights for the outs?

0*4 is easy to figure out

but 2*10????

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
but 2*10????

[/ QUOTE ]

2 combos of QJs against which Hero has 10 outs.

[oreogod]

I really need to learn how to do combinations on the fly. I see what you are saying, but Im having a hard time seeing how u got the combos. I thought it would equal more than that. (this is the one math area I need help on)

Because example. On the flop Im getting 8 combos of KQ on the Turn Im getting 6. Because isnt it there are 16 total combinations of KQ availible? Maybe Im doing it wrong, it is late at night for me.

[bernie]

I'd have checked the turn behind and called his river bet.

b

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
I probably would have called the turn for the flush draw/boat outs and folded the river unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't make a lot of sense. I think getting 13:1 on the river deserves a crying call for the times villain is raising with 55-TT. I don't like seeing another river overcard, but I still think calling is right.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
unknown raising from the small blind...

AA-TT, AKs-AQs, KQs ? that might be a little off though.

[/ QUOTE ]

And 99, AK, AQ, AJs, KQo and possibly something like QJs

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd have checked the turn behind and called his river bet.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

Bernie,

If you did not have the Td, would you then bet the turn and fold to the C/r?

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
If you did not have the Td, would you then bet the turn and fold to the C/r?


[/ QUOTE ]

It's HU. He called the flop action on a drawless board other than the flush draw with something. A bad card hit. He did raise preflop from sb.

If it were a complete blank of a card, I can maybe see a bet.

b

[Lurker4]

[ QUOTE ]
lol MTG...so i'm not the only nerd in here =)

I remember playing this back when I was like 15...I really liked my deck's style (tight agressive I guess you could call it). It was so damn cheap but I could never find anyone around to play in the small town I lived in, glad I found another strategic card game =)

From what I remember my deck was like 12 dual lands (R/G/B), 4 Juzam's, 4 Erhnam's, 4 Hypnotic Specters, etc. Then like 4 Giant Growths, 4 Blood Lusts, etc. mixed in with some restricted cards (Library of Alexandria, Sol Ring, Fork, Berserk, Regrowth, Demonic Tutor, etc.)

hehe man do I miss that deck, anytime I did play they'd be pissed cause the game would be over in the first 10 hands...

[/ QUOTE ]

I played the game a bit, but stopped after a while and played more SWCCG, but as far as I can remember, that's one expensive (and probably really good) deck. I do remember duals/juzams/ernhams as being very fast. hehe Demonic Tutor...I remember liking that card, was that the search your deck for anything card

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd have checked the turn behind and called his river bet.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

bernie,

i think i like this, though i imagine many others won't. this has been coming up alot lately, and i've been trying to convince people that there are situations where giviing a free card is fine.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]

Because example. On the flop Im getting 8 combos of KQ on the Turn Im getting 6. Because isnt it there are 16 total combinations of KQ availible? Maybe Im doing it wrong, it is late at night for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two of the queens, and one of the kings, are already out.

(3 remaining kings) x (2 remaining queens) = 6

[me454555]

Villain did raise pf so there is a fair chance tha the has 2 cards higher than a T. I don't want to give free cards to a hand like that and I really don't mind if he folds.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain did raise pf so there is a fair chance tha the has 2 cards higher than a T.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you really are banking on him having AJ on this turn? He isn't folding this to a turn bet anyways. He likely doesn't think you have a Q.

Take the free card.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want to give free cards to a hand like that and I really don't mind if he folds

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if he folds correctly?

b

[cnfuzzd]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain did raise pf so there is a fair chance tha the has 2 cards higher than a T. I don't want to give free cards to a hand like that and I really don't mind if he folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is either ahead and checkraising, or behind and would be folding incorrectly. More importantly, when you check behind, you are giving him the impetus to bluff at the pot. I like checking behind the turn here, as the only free card you would be giving is either an A or someone drawing to a set. Slim draws for them, no need to give them the chance to fold correctly.

The really fun thing is when a river blank hits and you get checked to. then checkraised.

peace

john nickle

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]


The really fun thing is when a river blank hits and you get checked to. then checkraised.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is acutally a really good point. What do you do in this situation? Bet and fold to a raise? Can checking behind twice possibly be right? Can calling the raise?

[me454555]

Notice the line the villain took here. He checkraised the turn after hero raise the flop and bet the turn. This tells me that villain has either a Q or made flush. We can eliminate AA, KK, QQ, and TT from the hands we think he has b/c they are very unlikly for villain to play it this way or just so rare that we don't have to worry about them.

AKs doesn't play the hand this way, unless he has exactly AKd. All the AQ and KQ are still in play as well, and I would also add in JQ too as well as AJd. I think we can also eliminate JJ b/c of the strenth hero showed pf and on the flop. Villain would be unlikely to c/r JJ on the turn w/this board.

AQ - 8 combos, 2 that we are drawing near dead to
AKd - 1 combo, we have 4 outs
AJd - 1 combo, we have 4 outs
KQ - 4 combos, we are drawing dead
QJ - 8 combos, 2 that we are drawing near dead to

12 times you have 8 outs
4 times you have 2 outs
4 times we are drawing dead, 0 outs
2 times we are drawing to 4 outs

This averages out to about 5 outs making a turn call slightly incorrect.

Definatly fold the river UI

[me454555]

Good points, I see the error of my ways /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[That guy]

how many hands do you beat on the river here?

none that are reasonable. I check this turn looking for a diamond on the river. when a non-diamond Jack comes, I think a fold is fine here.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
That doesn't make a lot of sense. I think getting 13:1 on the river deserves a crying call for the times villain is raising with 55-TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think that SB's actions through the turn indicate an underpair to the board?