Hi when can I fold. [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

shant

03-24-2005, 08:56 PM

Hi I think I played this like [censored] regardless of results.

Both villains are slightly loose aggressive aggressive over a smallish sample of hands. I didn't think I could fold preflop, or the flop. Fold the turn? Call down? Raise somewhere?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, 2 folds, MP2 caps, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP2 raises, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (15 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (18 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 21 BB
Main Pot: 21 BB, between Hero, UTG+1 and MP2.

einbert

03-24-2005, 09:00 PM

You can't fold anywhere.

EDIT: I agree that if I'm going to fold anywhere, it's preflop. I still wouldn't fold PF but I think it's arguable, especially being out of position. The way you played it though you definitely can't fold postflop, you're never having to put in more than 1BB at a time.

You could definitely have bet or raised a few times though.

I would have bet the flop for one thing. The hand plays a lot differently if you show a little aggression postflop I think.

bungyrocks

03-24-2005, 09:00 PM

in my opinion you played this hand too passively. I would bet and re-raise the flop. After this investment of 3-4 small bets you should have a good idea if you are against AK, or a real monster, in which case a fold is in order. The hand plays differently from this point.

ropey

03-24-2005, 09:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't think I could fold preflop, or the flop. Fold the turn? Call down? Raise somewhere?

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would you consider folding the turn, but not the flop? What changed?

-ropey

nolanfan34

03-24-2005, 09:02 PM

You say these guys are laggy, why not bet the flop? A lag is capping with a pretty wide range potentially, I can't instantly think that they have an overpair on the flop.

That of course would have made the hand different, as UTG+1 might have just called, etc.

shant

03-24-2005, 09:10 PM

I said they were slightly loose, which is closer to TAG than it is to LAG.

Let's say I bet the flop, what's the plan if it's 2 bets back to me. What if it's 1 bet?

gaming_mouse

03-24-2005, 09:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You can't fold anywhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can find a fold on the preflop, assuming they are not too loose, and I think the way this hand played out is a great argument for why you should.

When you hit your J, you have odds to chase your 5 outer -- actually a little less, since you may be up against AA -- the whole way. Now on the river, it's one bet to you, and you have odds to call that just in case.

When you hit your A on the flop, you will often be dominated, and since these guys's are capable of bluffing and bluff-raising and calling down with QQ and KK after an A falls, it's going to be hard to make good laydowns.

I know it sounds weak, and you do have flush value, but I really see you losing alot more than you win in this situation.

bungyrocks

03-24-2005, 09:13 PM

if its 2 bets i think you have two options:
1) fold.. lots of strength is being shown. you could be against QQ, KK, AA, and possibly both players have big hands. (weak tight anyone?)
2) cap.. and lead the turn. if you are raised again then you can fold.

if its one bet back to you re-raise and see what happens

nolanfan34

03-24-2005, 09:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I said they were slightly loose, which is closer to TAG than it is to LAG.

[/ QUOTE ]

You said:

[ QUOTE ]
slightly loose aggressive aggressive

[/ QUOTE ]

In my head I thought of that as LA-A.

I agree it makes a difference.

If it was two bets to me, I'd probably call, and take the turn from there. If it was one bet, I'd stop-and-go and bet a non-K, or A turn.

jason_t

03-24-2005, 09:22 PM

I'd have folded preflop, out of fear of being dominated and fear of a top pair J not being good enough. Also, you say these guys are s-LAGs so even if you do have the best hand after an A flops, they may push their QQ/KK hard on you. But I fold too much and maybe suitedness here is enough to let you go on to the flop.

Postflop I think you played it fine, although I'd have considered betting that river.

shant

03-24-2005, 09:24 PM

Your post clearly illustrates why I wanted to fold this preflop, but the suitedness made me call. Does it being suited make it lean towards a call preflop?

gaming_mouse

03-24-2005, 09:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can't fold anywhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can find a fold on the preflop, assuming they are not too loose, and I think the way this hand played out is a great argument for why you should.

When you hit your J, you have odds to chase your 5 outer -- actually a little less, since you may be up against AA -- the whole way. Now on the river, it's one bet to you, and you have odds to call that just in case.

When you hit your A on the flop, you will often be dominated, and since these guys's are capable of bluffing and bluff-raising and calling down with QQ and KK after an A falls, it's going to be hard to make good laydowns.

I know it sounds weak, and you do have flush value, but I really see you losing alot more than you win in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I have to retract this.

I just pokerstov'd it, and even assuming that you have to put in 3 or 4 BB to see the river, you still have odds.

adamstewart

03-24-2005, 09:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can find a fold on the preflop, assuming they are not too loose, and I think the way this hand played out is a great argument for why you should.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding this at any point preflop is WRONG.

UTG open raise is standard, and you MUST call when it's two bets back to you as you're getting 8.5:1 with a hand that plays fairly well mutlti-way.

Man, it's arguably okay to cold-call 2 bets with AJs when there are a few people already committed, so it CAN'T be wrong to call 2 more bets here!

Adam

Redeye

03-24-2005, 09:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if its 2 bets i think you have two options:
1) fold.. lots of strength is being shown. you could be against QQ, KK, AA, and possibly both players have big hands. (weak tight anyone?)

[/ QUOTE ]

When it comes back around, hero is getting 10:1 and has 5 clean outs against QQ and KK and 3 outs against AA. I think a call is probably in order on the flop.

I think this hand comes down to the fact that the read isn't over a whole lot of hands, so we really should treat these guys was mostly unknown. I think betting the flop was in order. If MP2 still 3-bets, your going to have to call the flop because you'll have odds to draw out on QQ,KK, and even AA (slight chance of drawing dead to JJ). Unfortunately, because of the size of the pot, you have odds to call the turn, and on the river the pot is too big to fold for 1 bet. So I'd say you played it fine other than I would've bet the flop here.

gaming_mouse

03-24-2005, 09:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can find a fold on the preflop, assuming they are not too loose, and I think the way this hand played out is a great argument for why you should.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding this at any point preflop is WRONG.

UTG open raise is standard, and you MUST call when it's two bets back to you as you're getting 8.5:1 with a hand that plays fairly well mutlti-way.

Man, it's arguably okay to cold-call with AJs when there are a few people already committed, so it CAN'T be wrong to call 2 bets here!

[/ QUOTE ]

Adam, I think you're right (see my above post). However, I don't think your coldcall argument is the reason why you are right.

private joker

03-24-2005, 09:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd of ...
although I'd of ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Grad student, huh? /images/graemlins/wink.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

bungyrocks

03-24-2005, 09:26 PM

point taken /images/graemlins/smile.gif

gaming_mouse

03-24-2005, 09:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your post clearly illustrates why I wanted to fold this preflop, but the suitedness made me call. Does it being suited make it lean towards a call preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, i think the suitedness is key. but not that i took back my fold preflop recommendation after doing more analysis.

jason_t

03-24-2005, 09:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd of ...
although I'd of ...

Grad student, huh? /images/graemlins/wink.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Math. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

adamstewart

03-24-2005, 09:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can find a fold on the preflop, assuming they are not too loose, and I think the way this hand played out is a great argument for why you should.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding this at any point preflop is WRONG.

UTG open raise is standard, and you MUST call when it's two bets back to you as you're getting 8.5:1 with a hand that plays fairly well mutlti-way.

Man, it's arguably okay to cold-call with AJs when there are a few people already committed, so it CAN'T be wrong to call 2 bets here!

[/ QUOTE ]

Adam, I think you're right (see my above post). However, I don't think your coldcall argument is the reason why you are right.

[/ QUOTE ]

it is precisely the same arguement (which considers pot odds, equity, and implied odds), just in this case the pot odds are even greater.

Adam

jason_t

03-24-2005, 09:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Man, it's arguably okay to cold-call 2 bets with AJs when there are a few people already committed, so it CAN'T be wrong to call 2 more bets here!

[/ QUOTE ]

Please elaborate on this argument.

jason_t

03-24-2005, 09:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I just pokerstov'd it, and even assuming that you have to put in 3 or 4 BB to see the river, you still have odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain this? Namely, what parameters you used, and how you reached your conclusion. I have almost no experience using PokerStove.

gaming_mouse

03-24-2005, 09:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]

it is precisely the same arguement (which considers pot odds, equity, and implied odds), just in this case the pot odds are even greater.

[/ QUOTE ]

The range of hands a raise implies are very different from the range a 3-bet or cap imply. So it quite possible that you have odds to call in one case but not the other. It happens, after you do the analysis, that you have odds to call in both cases.

gaming_mouse

03-24-2005, 09:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just pokerstov'd it, and even assuming that you have to put in 3 or 4 BB to see the river, you still have odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain this? Namely, what parameters you used, and how you reached your conclusion. I have almost no experience using PokerStove.

[/ QUOTE ]

I gave our two opponents AA-JJ,AK. I gave us AJs. We have 20% equity. Our effective odds, assuming we have to put in 4 BB to see the river, are 4:21 -- more than enough overlay. Even when we add in the two other opponents, we still have odds, though it gets closer. Also, this is a worst case scenario, since there will be times when we can safely laydown, making the argument even stronger. Expanding the range for a 3-bet and cap also makes the argument stronger.

adamstewart

03-24-2005, 09:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

it is precisely the same arguement (which considers pot odds, equity, and implied odds), just in this case the pot odds are even greater.

[/ QUOTE ]

The range of hands a raise implies are very different from the range a 3-bet or cap imply. So it quite possible that you have odds to call in one case but not the other. It happens, after you do the analysis, that you have odds to call in both cases.

[/ QUOTE ]

So in this case, the decreased range of possible hands is offset by the increased pot odds (because of the money *already* in the pot here).

I'm getting confused now. Where are you differing with me?

Adam

gaming_mouse

03-24-2005, 09:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]

So in this case, the decreased range of possible hands is offset by the increased pot odds (because of the money *already* in the pot here).

I'm getting confused now. Where are you differing with me?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know... maybe we're not and I misunderstood you. My only point is that the fact that you should coldcall with AJs after a few callers does not in itself IMPLY that a call in this case is correct.

jason_t

03-24-2005, 09:51 PM

Perfect explanation. Thank you.

adamstewart

03-24-2005, 10:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Man, it's arguably okay to cold-call 2 bets with AJs when there are a few people already committed, so it CAN'T be wrong to call 2 more bets here!

[/ QUOTE ]

Please elaborate on this argument.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say you're in a hand with AJs (your position is rather irrelevant) and there are three people already commited to a raised pot. Action is to you, and it's two bets to you to cold call. Generally, you should call. (I don't know the exact math off hand, but suffice to say SSH says to do it, so let's assume it's correct to call here).

In the case of the originally posted hand, the hero is similarly forced to call two bets. Also, similarly there are multiple players commited to this pot. An advantage in this scenario, however, is that due to the "first-time-around" action, there are *many* more bets already in the pot - giving greater pot odds. (As gaming mouse has suggested, though, a disadvantage here is the restricted range of possible hands in this case).

In both scenarios we are analyzing the combination of pot odds, equity, and implied odds.

Adam

Super Pro

03-24-2005, 10:18 PM

you'd save yourself a lot of chips by just folding preflop.

gaming_mouse

03-24-2005, 10:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you'd save yourself a lot of chips by just folding preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

shant,

if just a "regular" pro gave you this advice, then maybe there would still be something to discuss. seeing as it's coming from a "super" pro, however, i think the argument is closed.

Super Pro

03-24-2005, 10:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you'd save yourself a lot of chips by just folding preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

shant,

if just a "regular" pro gave you this advice, then maybe there would still be something to discuss. seeing as it's coming from a "super" pro, however, i think the argument is closed.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're damn right

einbert

03-24-2005, 10:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you'd save yourself a lot of chips by just folding preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

shant,

if just a "regular" pro gave you this advice, then maybe there would still be something to discuss. seeing as it's coming from a "super" pro, however, i think the argument is closed.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're damn right

[/ QUOTE ]

But.....I thought you were an amateur?

/images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

shant

03-24-2005, 10:56 PM

CallMeIshmael

03-24-2005, 11:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Man, it's arguably okay to cold-call 2 bets with AJs when there are a few people already committed, so it CAN'T be wrong to call 2 more bets here!

[/ QUOTE ]

Please elaborate on this argument.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say you're in a hand with AJs (your position is rather irrelevant) and there are three people already commited to a raised pot. Action is to you, and it's two bets to you to cold call. Generally, you should call. (I don't know the exact math off hand, but suffice to say SSH says to do it, so let's assume it's correct to call here).

In the case of the originally posted hand, the hero is similarly forced to call two bets. Also, similarly there are multiple players commited to this pot. An advantage in this scenario, however, is that due to the "first-time-around" action, there are *many* more bets already in the pot - giving greater pot odds. (As gaming mouse has suggested, though, a disadvantage here is the restricted range of possible hands in this case).

In both scenarios we are analyzing the combination of pot odds, equity, and implied odds.

Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

I may be wrong, but it seems that you still believe the original post (in bold above) is accurate.

GM's point was that one does not imply the other. They are seperate situations and the EV of one cannot be used to assume the EV of the other, because both are close to EV = 0. (ie. its not like you have AA or 74)

Basically, there are two contradictory forces pushing on the EV of coldcalling:

1. We have much better pots odds (this pushes EV up)
2. We are up against a much better range of hands (this pushes EV down).

What would you say about this assumption:

I started with a number bigger than zero. Then I added a number to it. Then I subtracted a number from it. My number must still be bigger than zero.

You cant assume the number is still > 0, because we know nothing of the size of the numbers that were added and subtracted.

ErrantNight

03-25-2005, 01:06 AM

why aren't you leading this flop again?

wrto4556

03-25-2005, 01:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
why aren't you leading this flop again?

[/ QUOTE ]

I waded through all those post to find out you asked my question.

Lead the flop, fold if it's two back to you, 3-bet if it's one.

What if it's capped?

Redeye

03-25-2005, 01:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I waded through all those post to find out you asked my question.

Lead the flop, fold if it's two back to you, 3-bet if it's one.

What if it's capped?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what I was thinking and it seems that this has been happening a lot in interesting/tough situations. Preflop debates are sometimes useful, but for the most part many of these decisions probably aren't so important that they need 3 pages of posts worth of debate.

I think the preflop call did put hero in a difficult post-flop situation, but I think its discussing the post-flop portion that is more important in improving overall play. It seems a lot of threads always end up having a lot of debate concerning preflop decisions whereas most of the interesting decisions occur post-flop.

This hand seems difficult because hero is in a capped pot w/ TPTK and relatively unknown opponents. I think hero should've led at this flop, but I really can't give any good reasoning one way or another. He's going to have odds to call if 3-bet when he leads just as he has odds to call after the bet and raise. I think discussing the merits of betting or checking the flop are more important than actually worrying about if he should've called the cap anyways.

Just my thoughts.

shant

03-25-2005, 02:02 AM

OK, so wait, did I play this right? Is it a way behind or way ahead situation? Should I call it down? Am I going to showdown?

climber

03-25-2005, 02:11 AM

I think you need to check/3bet the flop for information.

If its capped after your check/3bet you know you are likely screwed and could start to seriously consider check/folding the turn unimproved. However realistically I can't fold the turn unimproved unless its two bets back to me.

I feel stupid leading the flop--its one small bet in an already big pot what do you learn from that? Seems to me like nothing. The c/r or c/3bet gives you at least a shot to find out just how much they like their hands by leaving the headroom for them to respond with a cap.

Anyone else like this line?

Redeye

03-25-2005, 02:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
OK, so wait, did I play this right? Is it a way behind or way ahead situation? Should I call it down? Am I going to showdown

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, your not way behind thats for sure, unless someone has JJ. You've got 5 outs against QQ-KK. 3 outs against AA. You're getting a pretty big overlay on the flop and you probably have a little over 4 effective outs if you're even behind.

I keep going back and forth on betting the flop. I just cannot come up with great reasoning one way or the other. I think a bet is in order since they are relatively unknown and you may have the best hand. I just don't see anyway you can protect your hand on the flop though. (If in fact you are ahead)

CallMeIshmael

03-25-2005, 02:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I waded through all those post to find out you asked my question.

Lead the flop, fold if it's two back to you, 3-bet if it's one.

What if it's capped?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't dislike leading the flop. I don't like it either. No matter what happens bets are going in, and you cant protect a thing.

I really really dont like any line that includes a fold on the flop, with the exception being it is 3+ cold to you.

If you give him 4 effective outs, he is 10.8-1 to come in on the turn, and 5.1-1 by the river, which he will almost certainly be seeing. There is really no line in which you are facing two cold that you should be folding.