straight on a flush board - greedy?

[Che]

80 or so left in a Party $55 MTT. In the money, but still a long way from the real money.

SB's stack and my stack are both well above average (almost ~2x). I’m table chip leader.

Blinds 400/800

Folded to SB (16755). He minraises. I call with J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif and T18301.

Flop: T /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif (Pot=3200)

He bets 1100. I raise to 4000. He calls.

Turn: 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif (Pot=11200)

Check, check.

River: 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

He has 11155 left. I have ~12700.

He checks. I bet 5000.

Thoughts?

Note: Debate the preflop call if you wish. I call minraises with any two when I feel like it. End of preflop discussion as far as I'm concerned. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[MLG]

I like it. Ive said it before, but i think it merits repeating, there are very few players who checkraise the river online (either as a bluff or with a monster). I might bet a shade less aiming to get called by pairs besides top pair.

Preflop is never a huge mistake in this situation against a minraise when you both have over 20x.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
I might bet a shade less aiming to get called by pairs besides top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I figured that if he was willing to call 3000 with QT/K9/whatever, he would also be willing to call 5000 since 5000 looks more like a bluff than 3000.

Does that make sense?

Che

[woodguy]

I agree with MLG, after you checked through the turn, 99% of the time the flush is going to value bet the river.

I would either bet smaller or all in to induce a call though, probably smaller in this case. 1/2 pot looks too much like a value bet.

Regards,
Woodguy

[MLG]

I think you might be giving a little too much thought process credit. Many times, I think a 9 will call 3000, but fold to 5000 because its just a little too much.

[schwza]

haven't read other posts...

i would bet the turn. you really don't want to give a freebie to a hand like KT, with or without the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif, as a river /images/graemlins/spade.gif will either kill your action or lose you the pot. there is no reason to believe that you're behind here, i think you want to get the money in while you can. if it turns out to be a flush, hope it's a small one and you've got some outs.

i bet the river and call a push. villain may c/r a set, 2pr, etc on this board.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
i would bet the turn


[/ QUOTE ]

But you would puke if he raised, and if he checks the river as well you can be fairly comfortable that he doesn't have the flush.

Regards,
Woodguy

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i would bet the turn


[/ QUOTE ]

But you would puke if he raised, and if he checks the river as well you can be fairly comfortable that he doesn't have the flush.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

not so much that it will spill out of my mouth onto keyboard. i think villain may c/r hands like two pair/set, and i think that a non-nut flush will often lead to prevent the free card.

if you check the turn, how big a bet do you call on a non-/images/graemlins/spade.gif or /images/graemlins/spade.gif river?

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
if you check the turn, how big a bet do you call on a non- or river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I call (or raise) any river bet regardless of what falls.

There are 12 scare cards that can come- 9 spades, 3 J's - but the spades may actually help me so I'm really only worried about the J's and I don't think many opponents would push their Q-high straight since most players would fold anything other than a flush.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
i think that a non-nut flush will often lead to prevent the free card.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good point.

[ QUOTE ]
if you check the turn, how big a bet do you call on a non- or river?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'd pretty well call any sized bet, including my stack, but hopefully I will have seen him make value bets before so I can evaluate his bet.

Regards,
Woodguy

[Che]

He folded.

[billyjex]

[ QUOTE ]
He folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just came across this thread, but on the debate of betting the turn, I think you should because 1) you don't want to give a lone spade a free card and 2) you charge the A or K spade to draw whereas on the river he's not calling your bet if he misses. If he C/R the turn, we'll just have to deal with that when it happens.