I'm a maroon - A question about when to raise a draw.

[LinusKS]

Reading through some posts yesterday, it occured to me I may be calculating pot equity incorrectly, in the case where you have a strong draw, but you need to hit your draw to win.

Here's an example.

Hero is BB, with A2s.

EP raises, MP calls, SB calls, BB calls. (8 sb)

Flop: Ks 9c 8s.

It's checked to the EP, who bets. The others call. There are now 11 sb's in the pot, so the Hero clearly has odds to call.

The question is, can/should the Hero raise this hand?

For the sake of the example, please assume these are average ss players - iow, you think the EP has something, but that the other two may have very little, or nothing at all.

[DemonDeac]

i'd only raise here if i had position to possibly take a free card on the turn IF i was in position.
here, out of position, i just call

[crunchy1]

It comes down to how often EP will 3-bet and face MP and SB with another 2 - And then how many times MP and SB will either call that 3-bet or call your initial raise. I think if you raise and EP 3-bets and that drives out SB and MP you haven't accomplished anything except losing more when you lose and winning less when you win. This should be the key consideration on pumping your draws.

[crunchy1]

I suppose another factor would be if you'd expect EP to bet again on the turn if you hit on the turn. That would give you a checkraise opportunity to possibly get 3 extra BB's out of the other players.

[Dopey]

I agree with Deamon, Unless you think you can get a free card a raise is not the best play.

With your flush draw you are 4.22 to 1 to make it by the turn. So to make the play a value raise you would need 5 callers (Based on 9 outs, I am not counting your overcard out as with 3 others in the pot its probably no good if you hit.)

Someone please correct me if Im wrong

Dopey /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
With your flush draw you are 4.22 to 1 to make it by the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

But when you make it on the turn you collect double-sized bets on the both the turn and the river -- with a larger pot that people are more tied to.

-d

[Baloosh]

Look at it this way:

With the nut flush draw (or any flush draw if you don't have someone on a higher flush draw) you have 35% chance to hit and win by the river, which equates to 35% pot equity on this, and similar, hands. If there are more than 3 players in the pot (including you) then every bet and raise put into the pot on all streets means more long-term money won for you.

Your pot equity is much too high with 4 or 5 players in the hand to not jam this on every opportunity. With only 2 or 3 players total in the hand, then it becomes a call, since you don't have the extra in pot equity that you need to keep raising.

[Dopey]

A copule of problems with your logic.

A flop raise may cause you to lose the two callers and you may be three bet by EP which means you lose your odds to draw

When you make it on the turn you are better off having not shown strength. If you raise the flop you need to bet the turn thus will usually at most make 4BB on the turn (If all three call) + extra 1.5 BB from the flop raise = 4.5BB

By calling and checking if you hit you have a better chance of EP betting + 2 callers + you raise + 3 callers (who are tied to such a big pot for only one more bet) = 8 BB

A call makes the most sense from you position for when you hit and for when you don't, because when you don't make it you will not have paid as much to draw and still will make a good amount when you hit the river because of the other callers.
I would like to hear others thoughts though

Dopey /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Dopey]

Based on the exact situation described, not generalities

Are you advocating raising the flop in the sitatuion described (4 players in the pot)

See my post above and explain why raising the flop is a good idea. Calling the flop makes the most sense as it has the greatest potential return with the smallest possible investment.

Does Your play not become -EV if EP 3-bets and you lose the callers.

Thoughts?

Dopey /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
Does Your play not become -EV if EP 3-bets and you lose the callers.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends. If it can clean up that Ace as an out (say A7 folds), then your equity jumps considerably.

I'd like raising better with position and a slightly better hand (BD straight draw, 2 overs, decent kicker to my A where I could be a little confident if an ace hits the turn), but I don't think it's terrible as you do have an equity advantage over many hands here. (KQc/JT/77 you have a slight edge over the field) A lot depends on the aggressiveness of the bettor, as has been described. A fish that would be scared to calling down? I'd like a raise. A TAG? I'm probably calling along, unless the other two were total calling stations.

-d

[shadow29]

Raising flush draws (or any draw for that matter) has to do with equity edges. If your pot equity is 33% (which it is, approximately, for a flush draw) and there are 5 players (including you) in the hand you have a pot equity edge because your "fair share" of the pot is 20%. Combine this concept with a potential free card on the turn and possibly cleaning up pair outs, and there you go.

[Baloosh]

Raising any street is a good idea, if there are 4 or more players in the hand. It's logical to deduce that every bet/raise going in the pot makes you money in the long run.

To extract the maximum at that particular table, in that particular hand, it might be better to just call. Either play is fine, long-term it is more +EV to raise with 4 or more people in.

You're assuming that the overcallers will never overcall 2 more bets. In today's SSHE games, this is never a given.

[Sarge85]

Against typical low limit players, I think you are passing up a lot if you are forgoing a CR here.

Some discussion about what if EP puts in a 3 bet, and scares the field out of the hand.

I don't think that happens quite enough to pass up a chance to get extra bets in, when your equity is this large. Lets face it, a CR is a big neutralizer, and will more often than not freeze out EP from putting in another bet.

EVEN when he does pop it - I guarantee you'll get one or two callers that will still call the two extra bets.

Ram and Jam.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[MaxPower]

The size of the pot isn't really relevant to whether you should raise. You have at least 33% pot equity and you will be putting in 25% of the money. Put another way you are 2:1 to make your flush by the river and you will be getting 3:1 on your money if everyone calls.

I wouldn't worry about a re-raise. It might happen, but that shouldn't stop you from raising here. With this board you will probably not lose anyone and you might even be able to cap it.