a hand that stealcow thought i misplayed

[TStoneMBD]

villain is 47VPIP 9PFR 135hands.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, BB calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

[DemonDeac]

looks pretty standard to me

[nolanfan34]

I'd play it the same. Does he think you should have 3-bet the turn? I'm not folding, that's for sure.

[TStoneMBD]

he doesnt think i should have 3bet the flop.

[DMBFan23]

heads up I might think about call/checkraise or call/stopngo, but with the 3rd dude in there I'm pretty sure I'm 3 betting.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
he doesnt think i should have 3bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? I'd be interested for him to elaborate on that. You have a pretty loose raiser on the flop, that could be a ton of different hands.

[Fat Nicky]

i play it the same.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
heads up I might think about call/checkraise or call/stopngo, but with the 3rd dude in there I'm pretty sure I'm 3 betting.

[/ QUOTE ]


yeah I agree. no way I'm just calling the flop.

[private joker]

I think the river is a pretty easy fold, and I don't think folding to his turn raise is too bad either. The times Villain's action indicate he can beat TPGK are numerous. The number of times you still have the best hand are minimal. Learn to let TPGK go. It will save you $ in the long run.

I do like the flop 3-bet in case he has QJ. But when he raises the turn again, you're in trouble.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river is a pretty easy fold, and I don't think folding to his turn raise is too bad either. The times Villain's action indicate he can beat TPGK are numerous. The number of times you still have the best hand are minimal. Learn to let TPGK go. It will save you $ in the long run.

I do like the flop 3-bet in case he has QJ. But when he raises the turn again, you're in trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my first thought as well.

-d

[DemonDeac]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river is a pretty easy fold, and I don't think folding to his turn raise is too bad either. The times Villain's action indicate he can beat TPGK are numerous. The number of times you still have the best hand are minimal. Learn to let TPGK go. It will save you $ in the long run.

I do like the flop 3-bet in case he has QJ. But when he raises the turn again, you're in trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

i just can't find a way to fold this by looking at the villain LAGish stats

[sinfulslick18]

I would play the hand the same way.

-sinful

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river is a pretty easy fold, and I don't think folding to his turn raise is too bad either. The times Villain's action indicate he can beat TPGK are numerous. The number of times you still have the best hand are minimal. Learn to let TPGK go. It will save you $ in the long run.

I do like the flop 3-bet in case he has QJ. But when he raises the turn again, you're in trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, common sense says you're beat. the problem is guys like this one (47/9) often have a screw loose and you can't rely on him to act according to common sense.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river is a pretty easy fold, and I don't think folding to his turn raise is too bad either. The times Villain's action indicate he can beat TPGK are numerous. The number of times you still have the best hand are minimal. Learn to let TPGK go. It will save you $ in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, this is interesting. I guess looking back at the action, it is hard to imagine what we're beating on the river, besides maybe KJ. But does he have that 1 in 13 times to make a call correct? I'd probably lean toward yes.

Given the "big laydown" discussion in Evan's thread, this to me is certain a good example of a hand that I don't think I can laydown, and I wonder if it costs me as much money as you say it does.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]

yeah, common sense says you're beat. the problem is guys like this one (47/9) often have a screw loose and you can't rely on him to act according to common sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

47 is definitely way loose. But 9 PFR is solid. And we don't have any postflop aggression numbers on him. Until I get proof that he's like &gt;3 AF post flop, I assume he's not insane.

[TStoneMBD]

i have trouble laying these types of hands down. playing 4 tables, i have no reads on anybody and ive seen quite a few maniacs play 39o this way. granted, most players arent like this, so i guess you could argue that id make more money by just letting the idiots run me over, while saving bets against the legits. still, its hard to lay down these hands regularly because i feel like people will start takinng shots.

[LinusKS]

If you fold this river, you're saying you lose this more than one out of 14 times.

I don't see how that could possibly be right.

If the villain thinks he can make you fold here, even one out of ten times, he's making money, even if he has a hand that can't win otherwise.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
villain is 47VPIP 9PFR 135hands.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, BB calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is fine.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

yeah, common sense says you're beat. the problem is guys like this one (47/9) often have a screw loose and you can't rely on him to act according to common sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

47 is definitely way loose. But 9 PFR is solid. And we don't have any postflop aggression numbers on him. Until I get proof that he's like &gt;3 AF post flop, I assume he's not insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't have to be insane to play KJ this way. Stoopid maybe, but not insane. I think a river fold is a mistake. He could have KQ as well.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the river is a pretty easy fold, and I don't think folding to his turn raise is too bad either. The times Villain's action indicate he can beat TPGK are numerous. The number of times you still have the best hand are minimal. Learn to let TPGK go. It will save you $ in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, this is interesting. I guess looking back at the action, it is hard to imagine what we're beating on the river, besides maybe KJ. But does he have that 1 in 13 times to make a call correct? I'd probably lean toward yes.

Given the "big laydown" discussion in Evan's thread, this to me is certain a good example of a hand that I don't think I can laydown, and I wonder if it costs me as much money as you say it does.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Folding here is not good.

[sthief09]

yeah, the 9 by itself is fine. but for some reason when I see 47/9 I think of a gambler or a shot taker

[nolanfan34]

I like the retro avatar, and your locator is a good question too.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]


He doesn't have to be insane to play KJ this way. Stoopid maybe, but not insane. I think a river fold is a mistake. He could have KQ as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the reasons we 3-bet the flop is to define our hand. We like our hand a lot. We have TPGK. Now we've got someone continuing to raise us on the turn. 95% of the time we're toast. That's poker. TPGK isn't always a winner. We don't need this many red alarms telling us we've got a payoff hand. So I maintain that until I have a read that Villain is a maniac I don't believe that he has a hand equal to or worse than KQ often enough to justify calling.

[sthief09]

the avatar is only temporary until I can find something better

[edtost]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river is a pretty easy fold, and I don't think folding to his turn raise is too bad either. The times Villain's action indicate he can beat TPGK are numerous.

[/ QUOTE ]

folding the river, once you get there, blows. i'll accept arguments for folding on the turn, even though i wouldn't do it.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
the avatar is only temporary until I can find something better

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the money-shot came back in a week. Or were you teasing me?

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
the avatar is only temporary until I can find something better

[/ QUOTE ]

Mets prospect du jour is the best you could do?

[shadow29]

The problem with using a 9 pfr to establish the read that this guy isn't nuts is the fact that his pfr might not have stabled out yet in proportion with his vpip. Moreover, his raising standards (with a 47 vp) may not be the same as yours.

I like the way the hand was played.

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
47 is definitely way loose. But 9 PFR is solid. And we don't have any postflop aggression numbers on him. Until I get proof that he's like &gt;3 AF post flop, I assume he's not insane.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is a horrific misapplication of statistical information.

folding the turn getting 11ish-1 is not such a hot move either.

People don't need to be insane to justify calling with TP when the pot has like 13 bets in it (not to suggest a fold or call is obvious here).

look into the inter-relationship between a high vpip and postflop looseness, and how postflop looseness effects pt's agg factor and can mask postflop aggression.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]

folding the river, once you get there, blows. i'll accept arguments for folding on the turn, even though i wouldn't do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I might fold the turn anyway. But folding the river doesn't blow if you put Villain on 2 pair (a guy with 47 VPIP will play KT, K6, and even T6s), because you're calling the turn with 3 clean Q outs for top 2, and 2 dirty K outs for possibly good trips. When you fail to hit those 5, folding doesn't blow. But yeah -- folding the turn might even be better.

I'm willing to accept that I'm in the minority here regarding how often we're ahead, but I think the concept of being able to get away from TPGK in the face of strong evidence that it's a loser is worth discussing.