Bad Play or Bad Timing?

[otnemem]

So I played the 10+1 $25,000 guaranteed on Stars last night. I'm only in for my inital buy-in, and have managed to keep my stack relatively healthy throughout the tourney. As the blinds are increasing rapidly, and I'm getting less and less playable hands, my stack starts to shrink. So we started with over 900. We're now down to 19. Next one out gets the tail end of the $215 prize bracket. 18-10 get $375. 9-1 get from between $800-$9,000. I am below average with 160K, blinds at 10 and 20K. Keep in mind, I'm below average, but I'm still ahead of close to half the field... So it folds to me on the button with Ah3h. I have SB covered, but barely, and the BB has about 550K. I push. BB uses his time bank. I'm praying he's just doing it to waste time, but as he nears 15 sec, he calls and shows A-10. I don't suckout, and I bubble the next prize bracket. My thoughts are that in play to win mode, I made the right play. As I'm not wholly concerned with the jump from $215 to $375, I feel that pushing there and hoping to pick up the blinds is the right play to increase my stack. Is there any validity to the idea of waiting until the next prize jump, and THEN playing to win? Or is that sort of an oxymoron?

[ZBTHorton]

It's an oxymoron.

I like the push.

[Simplistic]

less than 10BB...yeah i probably push here. or commit half my stack pf then push the flop. the commit half the stack is probably wrong though.

[billyjex]

Eaaasy push on the button. I might be pushing with just about anything decent here to keep my stack healthy.

[otnemem]

Afterward, I considered the half stack bet and flop push. There are a few problems with it, though. If he flat calls, and then bluffs the K-Q-x flop, I'd have a hard time calling. If he pushes preflop, I'd know I'm behind going to the flop. The push is good because 160K still represents more than a quarter of his stack, and really puts him to the test.

[ZBTHorton]

In accordance with that situation, you wouldn't call based on being pot committed?

[rwanger]

I would not have made the same play you did here...that's not to say you were wrong though. Although "you are playing for first" and you want to be stealing blinds, A3 is not the greatest hand in the world to do so with. When you do have less than 10xBB, you do need to be in all in or push mode...but late in a multitable tournament, like you said, you may be ahead of half of the field. If one person busts out, you practically double your earnings, and you will have plenty of better hands come around, since the table is still almost full.

When you do push, ideally you'd like to do so with a hand that has a chance to double up if called. A3 is not that hand, especially against stacks that are >= yours. I know you want the blinds, but if you get called, you are crushed. Who will call? A larger Ace or a pocket pair, and you are in bad shape. Not that you should push with something like QT, but realize that you would have a much better shot if you got called when pushing QT, because you could have two overcards, or if you're up against AK or AJ you still are at least 40% or so to win. Not so with the weak ace.

I am admittedly a pretty conservative tournament player, but WHEN I make the money, I often end up at the final table (ie. 3 for my last 3) through tight but aggressive play, and desipte the 10x rule, I would not comfortably push with A3 in that situation....ESPECIALLY against a huge stack who very well might call me.

[bmxreed36]

I would do this almost everytime against a stack who may be worried about going out next, but never against such a big stack who's calling range will be larger and with this hand, you know if he calls, you'll almost certainly be pretty far behind.

[U235]

This is a question I've been rasslin' with myself lately, on whether to steal with hands that are very likely to be dominated when called. {skip to the bottom if you don't want the math}

Of course, it depends on what BB's range of calling hands is. There are 180/2450 (~7%) hands that dominate you; BB may not call with hands like A5o or 4-4, especially given his incredibly (and, in my view, silly) long pause with AT. But let's say he calls 7% of the time with hands that dominate you, 3% of the time with hands you have a slight edge against (some KQ, suited broadway), and folds the rest. Also, let's say SB will only play with a monster (top 3% of hands, all which dominate you). I don't have poker stove at work, so this will be rough:

This assumes you win about 35% of the time when called

87% of the time you are +30K (no antes?); almost a 20% increase in stack
4.5% you double up
8.5% you are out

This is a pretty huge +CEV play; the blinds are big, and you are not dominated all that often. Waiting till the next prize jump would make this a less +CEV play, as I think the SB would be a lot more likely to call you with dominating hands. You are also a lot less likely to have the action folded to you on the button with a decent hand after this bubble.

[U235]

Ugh, my math sucks. I need to double those percentages. I'd edit but my time has run out. You are actually dominated by BB about 15% of the time, and SB about 6%. This is what I get for trying to work these things with just my puny human brain. So:

80% of the time you are +30K
7% you double up
13% you are out

Still +CEV, but closer. The idea that the SB won't call with a lot of dominating hands is important, and something that probably won't be the case once the bubble bursts.

[Roman]

easy push I think.

[Superfluous Man]

Depending on my reads of the SB and BB, I may push with two cards here.