Negative ROI

[TruFloridaGator]

Over my past 40 or so, my ROI has gone from 21% & ITM 45 to negative. I'm only playing the 5s, not looking for any consoling, but does this ever happen to someone who has done at least decent over their first 200 SNGs? I've been posting hands etc, thanks for the help. Trying to get back on track?

[Pepsquad]

ANYTHING...can happen over 40 SNG's. This includes (gasp) a negative ROI.

[Rolen]

Could be variance, but could also be the level you're playing at. You've probably read this elsewhere but a vig of 20% is very tough to beat : Every time you go into an allin situation at less than 60/40 fave you're losing money long term.

Switch up to the 10+1s, they still all suck there. Assuming your bankroll can handle it and you are indeed a winning player overall, your ROI will go up.

[apd138]

If you play a lot of sit and gos you will get a lot of streaks longer than 40 with a negative ROI please do not panic every time.

[TruFloridaGator]

So is it too hard to build a roll through the 5+.50s?

[Rolen]

Oh! If you're playing 5+.50 then it's no different than the 10+1s, I assumed you were playing at Party where the vig for the $5 tables is $1. My mistake!

[Mr_J]

You guys aren't getting it. He's not talking about a neg ROI thru 40, but going from 21% after 200 to -ROI after 240. That said, you can't lose that much that quickly without experiencing alot of bad luck, so it coulod easily be variance. Keep at it.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys aren't getting it. He's not talking about a neg ROI thru 40, but going from 21% after 200 to -ROI after 240. That said, you can't lose that much that quickly without experiencing alot of bad luck, so it coulod easily be variance. Keep at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

240 hardly more significant than 40.

Fellow Gator, keep at it. Play at a site where the vig is smaller. Stars has $5+.50. Maybe someone can recommend a $5+.50 site where the game is structured similar to Party.

Variance could make a 20% "true" ROI player a -5% or a 50% ROI over 240 games. Search for Irieguy's post about month-long bad streaks. Don't worry, just keep playing and refining your game.

Your concern is losing the least on bad variance weeks and winning the most on good variance weeks. All kinds of weirdness can happen in the short term, like heads coming up 10 times in a row. You can't control that so just worry about whether you're making correct decisions and post the hands the "felt funny."

[Paul2432]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys aren't getting it. He's not talking about a neg ROI thru 40, but going from 21% after 200 to -ROI after 240.

[/ QUOTE ]

No he isn't. The situation you describe is impossible.

200*0.21=42. Even if he had 40 consecutive out of the money finishes, he would still have an ROI of 2/240=0.833%.

Paul

Edit: fixed math errors

[valenzuela]

40 sngs? thats all?? you have to play at least 500 tourneys.( some cool guy did a study)Im now on a semi-bad streak..ive won like a third of a buy-in after 50 sngs. UB turbos are kinda similar to party structure btw.

[pooh74]

There are low buy in turbos on stars that have good vigs (6+.50???) cant remember exactly, but the turbos I Imagine are similar to PP SNGs....usually about 1-1.5 orbits per blinds level...deeper stacks which allows for some early maneuvering w/o crippling urself if a hand goes wrong. On the other hand, after 5 levels, antes kick in which necessitates bold late play...(this is always the case, but antes make it more extreme IMO).

[villafan]

People who are looking for a good vig should take a look at 24hpoker and the skins of that site. They offer 5+0.25 euro turbo SNGs (blinds increase every 5 minutes). Will make it easier to build the roll than 5+0.5 tounerys. I think they start at 1250 chips and there are 8 players at the table.

[nokona13]

I had a nice ~25% ROI on my first 150-200 tournies and am down ~10 buyins over my last 50. I had a tilty streak when I lost like 10 in a row, but since then I feel I've been playing pretty solid and have still been losing or treading water. It happens. I think it'll happen much worse if you (we) keep at it long enough...

[TruFloridaGator]

Is there any type of graph built in to PokerTracker? I would give you guys the exacty numbers. I haven't played quite that many & probably 28ish out of 35 OTMS. Sorry for the false numbers. Right now the total is 212 played & the ROI is - .087. If I remember it was somewhere around 17-21 in the first 140ish played.

[ilya]

Hi Tru.

It's probably a mix of variance, leaks, and tilt. Variance, because it happens. Leaks, because everyone has them. Tilt, because variance sucks.

Don't panic, just keep thinking about the game and make sure you're playing your best and paying attention at all times.

Been there,
ilya

[valenzuela]

0,01/0,02 NLHE in UB is actually a game which the avg. players beats in the long run, no rake and they give u an UP now and then