Another 99 hand (with possible butchering)

[Alexthegreat]

So I'm reading all these posts about PPs, and this hand comes up...

I should 3-bet preflop right??
I should fold the flop right??

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (11.33 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, MP3 folds, CO calls.

River: (15.16 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, CO folds.

Final Pot: 17.16 BB

[jgorham]

Well played all around. 3betting this hand preflop is really only best when you can get the hand heads up with a loose raiser.

[Alexthegreat]

and peeling one off is okay on the flop?? I fully planned on folding any non 9 turn...

[jgorham]

The action (which you are closing) on the flop has 15sb. You can call profitably here with three outs. You have two 9's, and 1 out for the straight potential (you weren't gonna fold if a 6 7 or T hit were you?). Beyond that though you have pretty strong implied odds on this hand due to the fact that you can easily lose it if you miss everything on the turn.

So this is a call on the flop, and I don't think it is particularly close.

[ThePenguin]

I wouldn't 3-bet pre-flop in this situation because you chances of getting heads up seem small.

I think peeling one off for a single bet is fine as long as you think your hand is good if you hit.

[Alexthegreat]

[ QUOTE ]

I think peeling one off for a single bet is fine as long as you think your hand is good if you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG lead out on the flop and everybody called....There was nothing to lead me to believe that a 9 wouldn't give me the best hand....I'm not sure I would have called had it been checked to the PFR and he bet...but because I closed the round and because the pot was getting big, I figured I would take a chance on the turn....

No, I wouldn't fold a card giving me a OE on the turn, to answer jgorg's question....So yeah, I am getting the right odds....

[gaming_mouse]

You played this right, PF and flop.

[HajiShirazu]

I think you should have folded the flop, although it's too close for there to be a big difference. I think you lose a pretty fair percentage of the time you catch a nine, maybe 20-30%. You do have the backdoor but it's a crappy one because a queen or a jack on the turn doesn't improve your hand very much.
I like to take one off in these big pots as much as anyone but I can't see it here.
Glad you won though. And you did end up with nice impled odds on your call, 34-1, maybe it's not so bad after all.

[Spicymoose]

I guess I must have been playing my pocket 9s wrong all along. I've been under the assumption that it is a standard 3-bet with those. Basically we should only 3-bet to isolate with pocket 9s? What about Ts? How bad do you think the following action is:

UTG limp, MP1 limp, MP2 raise, fold, fold, Hero raise

Thanks,
Spicymoose

[Fat Nicky]

I think the hand is played fine from start to finish. 3-betting the flop here is a bad idea in a multiway pot. The flop play is closer than it looks, because if you hit your 9, someone w/QJ or 67 has you beat, and if no one has those hands, there are re-draws against you, but like I said, it's close, and calling a SB closing the action is no big deal here.

[QTip]

Are we giving him 1.5 outs for the bds? Is that why the flop call is correct? Or are we just justifying peeling one off because we're closing the actions

Just read the other posts...my bad...got my answer.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you lose a pretty fair percentage of the time you catch a nine, maybe 20-30%

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Where are you getting that?

[threeonefour]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you lose a pretty fair percentage of the time you catch a nine, maybe 20-30%

[/ QUOTE ]
Really? Where are you getting that?

[/ QUOTE ]

QJ murders the hero's hand... with that many callers what percentage of the time is QJ out there? also there could be lower gutshot draws that take the 9 away... in either instance you have redraws... I think 20-30% is probably too high of an estimate but I think you do have to take this into account. with that said, I am thinking this is probably a fold on the flop. although, i definitely could see myself making this call depending on my mood/table texture.


just an example of why you need to discount the outs. note: this situation doesn't need to come up all that often to make this already borderline call -ev.

Board: Kc 8h Td
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 05.9801 % [ 00.06 00.00 ] { 9h9c }
Hand 2: 68.9922 % [ 00.69 00.00 ] { Kd2c }
Hand 3: 25.0277 % [ 00.25 00.00 ] { QdJc }

[jgorham]

Come on look a little closer at this one. Sure sometimes when he hits his 9 he will lose. But the implied odds he is getting are absolutely huge. Using 20% as an estimate, lets do some math. Assuming for right now he is just on the 9 draw (which he doesn't have immediate odds for), 95% of the time he will lose .5bb

1% of the time he will lose 4.5bb (assuming he raises, is 3bet, and calls down)

4% of the time he wins 14.5bb (assuming 2 of those players stick around)

This call (with just his 2 outs) is worth .06bb. Not to mention you have further equity for when you hit your straight and take it down, and even more equity because I feel you win this post more than 80% of the time when you hit your 9.

Easy call.

[QTip]

Nice.

[jgorham]

I want to explain something I feel a lot of people don't understand about hands like these. The reason that implied odds are so high are twofold. First off when you hit your set you will win a very large percentage of time. I would guess around 85%-90%, but I don't have access to my PT database right now so couldn't really say (and obviously each individual hand will have a diff percent based on board and action). But second, and more importantly, is your implied odds are large because you will get out of the hand if you miss.

Simple, no set or straight draw on turn, fold. Your implied odds on the straight are much worse, as its going to take you 2 cards to get there. So a lot of the time you will be putting in 1bb on the turn, yet folding on the river. But you will never put in more than 1sb when drawing to your set. So every bet you gain on turn and river is pure implied odds gravy (and with 4 other players in the pot at this point, it is safe to assume there will be bets on turn and river).

I hope this clarifies things a little.

[QTip]

What makes this even more clear is the fact that we're closing the action and can be certain we're getting in for only .5bb

[sinfulslick18]

i would not 3bet that preflop, call that flop, but would u fold it if u did not hit your nine but if u got a card that enabled a possible striaght on the river.

-sinful

[threeonefour]

what range of hands are you putting the other players on? i am near 100% certain that there is at least one straight draw out there, in which case... the nine probably isn't an out or that individual has a nine herself.

I think if the pot was the same size but heads up your argument is stronger (even though implied odds are smaller then, you are drawing much more live)

another question: how many outs are you giving the hero? i honestly don't see it being much higher than 2. the runner runner outs basically cancel out the times you hit a nine and lose.

also noteworthy: keep in mind the convertor isn't taking out the rake when you make odds calculations, when you lose when spiking the nine it will be costly, when you make your runner runner straight(higher straight or flush) you might still lose or chop the pot. QJ J7 J9 76 each effectively kill your hand as well as most any other hand with a 9 (there may be more, this is just off the top of my head), with three flop callers what are the odds that at least one player has one of those hands? keep in mind if they do have that hand and you do manage to hit your set or gutshot draw on the turn, you will be losing additional money.


I am not saying that a fold is correct... i personally don't have my mind made up. but i don't see how its so cut and dry.

[Siingo]

In heres hand was there one player who coldcall. He will never fold to one more bet (if he is not an idiot). In your exampel was ther noone who had called 2 bets so there is a posibility that they fold. And 10 10 is better than 9 9. I think I would raise in your exampel both for the above reasens and also becaus you have great position!

[jgorham]

It is really impossible to put these players on any specific, conclusive hand ranges. All we know is that they all called 2 bets preflop, 1 bet the flop and no one raised. What could they do this with? Well just about anything really.

The odds I gave hero initiall are between 3-3.5 (2 for the set, 1-1.5 for the straight potential). Quite simply, this is enough to call on the flop (getting better than 14 to 1), but my previous posts were trying to explain the fact that hero also has ridiculous implied odds.

This is cut and dry. It is a call.

[Alexthegreat]

[ QUOTE ]
i am near 100% certain that there is at least one straight draw out there

[/ QUOTE ]

This is so wrong it's criminal...You can't possibly say this on a board of K T 8....On a board with 678, you might be able to say this, but there is no way you can say that there is QJ or 67 or 97 out there 100% of the time...A ridiculous assumption that will cost you money

[X-Calibre]

I guess i'm a lone dissenter here. I don't think the call is automatic, it's only close because of your position, and because the board is polychromatic. In the words of the immortal Sklansky, you could be drawing to an expensive second best hand. You are 1 to win 16 with implied odds getting you just over the hump for your 1 in 22 shot. But i dont like what you are drawing to, that 9 causes a lot of problems. Not only does it make a possible straight for your opponents, but the 9 is a scare card, and this is important. If your miraculous 9 comes you might not be able to extract the maximum amount for your hand as others may fear you hit the straight. Luckily, the UTG bet out anyway, but i would not count on this behavior 100% of the time.

[threeonefour]

i am inclined to agree.