Someone must be making a mistake

[David Ottosen]

I'm watching a hand of 8-16.

Two early players limp, a poster checks his option and the button limps. The SB folds, and the BB raises, and everyone calls.

The three key players in this pot are the poster, the BB, and the button. The BB is an aggressive good player. The poster is a loose loose mega fish who is "on a rush" and believes in rushes and is planning to win this pot and every pot henceforth. The button is a very good player.

The flop is J55 with two spades. The BB bets, the poster raises, the button 3-bets, and the BB caps. Poster and button call.

Turn is an offsuit 8. BB checks, poster bets, button folds, BB calls.

River is another 5. It goes check check.

The hands:
BB KsQs
Poster A5o (don't ask me why he checked the river!)
Button later told me he had QJo

My real question is how you think BB and button played their hands. I had some issues with it but I'd like to hear others opinions.

It is obvious that the button has a J, probaly with a kicker less than ace. I think he did ok, as once the turn comes, and the poster bets, he knows he's beaten. He maybe should have known a little earlier, but it's not too big a deal.

The BB is building a big pot with his "huge" draw. He discouts that the poster has a 5, but it doesn't matter much since he capped the flop betting. Again, we're talking about a small bet fragment lost by pushing his hand so hard. On the other hand, he'd like to keep the button around since he needs a flush to win, but he doesn't know that for sure.

The turn is pretty automatic. The BB knows he need to hit at least a pair, and the button figured he was either against the poster's 5, or the BB's AJ or overpair, and drawing almost dead. Everyone's play made sense.

The river, too made sense - the poster read the BB for KsQs, and checked knowing a bet wouldn't be called. Just kidding, of course - the BB made sense by checking, and the poster, well, what can you say?

In other words, I don't think anyone got too far out of line on this hand. The only play I can really say is goofy is the river check from the poster.

Just my 2 cents.

[skp]

BB' s play:

Preflop: Fine raise

Flop: Fine bet and not bad cap although if he just calls, he may get a better read on the poster's hand. Also, it should be clear to him that he now needs to hit to win so perhaps calling is better. It's close.

Turn: There are reasons to bet but against two opponents, in this spot, I think he now must realize that he has to hit to win. Checking is fine unless he thinks that the chances of anyone raising his bet are much lower than the chances of the button raising the middle guy's bet if he himself checked. i.e. it sounds like the button respects the bb's play more than the middle guy's play. If so, the cheapest way to see the river card might be for the bb to bet himself.

River: Having checked the turn, a river bet would look goofy. But if the guy with A5 had bet, the bb may have to call!

Button's play:

Preflop: Fine limp

Flop: Fine 3 bet.

Turn: Fine fold. If he wanted to play, he should raise and try and knock out bb.

Overall, I think they both played their hands fairly well.

Assuming ( big assumption) the button did in fact have QJo, I don't think he should necessarily raise if he's going to play on the turn. The BB, being a decent player who raised preflop and 4 bet the J55 two spades flop, either had an overpair which he's not folding, or a better jack which he's not folding, or the flush draw with probable overcards, which he's not folding. I think raising the turn could cost you more when you're behind, and doesn't gain much the (occasional) times it's ahead. I don't think this is a great raise or fold kind of situation, especially considering the two opponents you're against.

I would never 3-bet the flop and then fold the turn for 1 bet to a loose loose mega fish.

Jamie

[skp]

Well, that's why I think the button did well by folding. But in this spot, if he plays, raising has to be better than calling for the button because the board is already paired i.e., the button can't have a 5 outer if the bb has an overpair.

Your statement in no ways proves that raising must be better than calling. Let's not forget that you're paying more money raising. I know the pot's big, ya da da dee, but when you're talking about increasing your chances of winning the pot by a very small amount, the extra bet ( or more) definitely means something.