KK Versus PF Cap

[gaming_mouse]

I'm a 6:13 dog (6 combos of JJ) against his possible range when the turn hits, so betting out here is ok, right? This guy was super-tight and certainly had AA-JJ,AK.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (7.16 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10.16 BB

[pokerkai]

I like it...dont see TT or JJ making that raise.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I like it...dont see TT or JJ making that raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against this guy, the fold was the easy part. The question was should I have bet out in the first place? I think it was okay, but just checking....

[einbert]

If you're certain that's his range, I don't see how anything other than checking and calling can be correct.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're certain that's his range, I don't see how anything other than checking and calling can be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am. I am also certain that he folds JJ.

Calling down is about a 2:8 bet, which I am a 6:13 dog to win:

EV_calldown = -2*(13/19) + 8*(6/19) = 1.15

EV_betout = -1(13/19) + 6*(6/19) = 1.21

At the time I just had an instinct betting out was better, but I guess I was right.

[einbert]

What if he checks behind with JJ on the river?

You could conceivably check/call the turn and check/fold the river to a bet.

It's just hard for me to see how betting could be productive at all against that range of hands.

A couple of other things:

By calling down you give yourself a chance to hit your set. When you bet out he will most likely always either fold or raise, so you miss that chance.

Check/folding could possibly be the most profitable play.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
What if he checks behind with JJ on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes the EV of calling down even lower, so hurts your argument.

[ QUOTE ]
You could conceivably check/call the turn and check/fold the river to a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is not a good option, since he might easily fire away again with JJ. If you plan on folding, do it on the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
It's just hard for me to see how betting could be productive at all against that range of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you read my post above? The EV calc shows you why. It allows you to save a bet when behind, while still winning when ahead. I told you that he would fold JJ to a bet.

[ QUOTE ]
A couple of other things:

By calling down you give yourself a chance to hit your set. When you bet out he will most likely always either fold or raise, so you miss that chance.

Check/folding could possibly be the most profitable play.

[/ QUOTE ]

c/folding is clearly not as profitable as calling down, which is +EV, as I showed. c/folding is 0 EV.

The choice is between betting and folding to a raise, or calling down. It's close, but either is defensible.

The only real argument against my line is that you could say there is no way I can be certain of the assumptions I made (about him folding JJ, eg). Nonetheless, I felt I was right, as this guy played week tight, had a VPIP of 9 after 170 hands, and PFR of 4.