steal with A-rag this early?

[dfscott]

I usually make an "any-two" steal here at the higher levels, but I hate doing it with this hand. Thoughts?

Edit: FWIW, ICM calls it a coin-flip for anything but the tighest of callers, so now I'm thinking this is a "wait for a better spot" situation.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney (10+1), Big Blind is t50 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2025)
Hero (t595)
BB (t960)
UTG (t825)
MP (t2960)
CO (t635)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
folded to SB, Hero ???

BTW, sorry for the plethora of what might be pedestrian hands, but after a run of 5,6,4,6,7,7,2,7, I'm reeling a bit and starting to question everything...

(like the way I slipped some whining in there without it being just a whiny post?)

[Deuce2High]

Edited post... actually at first I said I would push but I'm actually not so sure. I'm kind of leaning towards fold now but really it could be either way.... *confused*

[Scuba Chuck]

Before we continue on, I'm interested to know what your thoughts were before you decided to push? Specifically with regard to risk reward issues.

Furthermore, do you know anything about BB?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually make an "any-two" steal here at the higher levels


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Big Blind is t50


[/ QUOTE ]

Come again?

Yugoslav
PS Clearing up this discrepency will help you immensely in answering your own question...

[Beck]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually make an "any-two" steal here at the higher levels, but I hate doing it with this hand. Thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney (10+1), Big Blind is t50 (6 handed)

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be level 3? Is that considered "higher levels"??

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I usually make an "any-two" steal here at the higher levels


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Big Blind is t50


[/ QUOTE ]

Come again?

Yugoslav
PS Clearing up this discrepency will help you immensely in answering your own question...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what you mean. By "here" I mean in the SB. My thoughts were that at this level, there's only t75 to steal. At the higher levels that I'd prefer to steal at (4+), I'm getting t150 or more. OTOH, my stack is somewhat small, so t75 is a decent addition -- just not sure if the risk-reward ratio is big enough.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
just not sure if the risk-reward ratio is big enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's not.

But pushing is most likely +EV anyway....

Yugoslav
Foldy, foldy, /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Before we continue on, I'm interested to know what your thoughts were before you decided to push? Specifically with regard to risk reward issues.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I was thinking that my stack was pretty small compared to the others and I would be down to 5BB in an orbit or so. A steal would increase my stack by about 15%.

OTOH, my showdown equity was probably pretty crappy -- I'll probably get called by a pair or a better Ace.

[ QUOTE ]
Furthermore, do you know anything about BB?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, amazingly, I had played him before and he'd won that tournament. He seemed a bit loose and would see a lot of cheap flops but when he showed down, he usually won.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I usually make an "any-two" steal here at the higher levels, but I hate doing it with this hand. Thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney (10+1), Big Blind is t50 (6 handed)

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be level 3? Is that considered "higher levels"??

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I think I understand why everyone is confused. By "here" I meant "from the small blind," and I think everyone thought I mean "level 3."

I make this play from here (i.e., the SB) at level 4 and above, but I'm not sure if it's worth making it at level 3.

Now does my question make more sense?

[Scuba Chuck]

David, just keep pushing your hand into your face. I'm starting to see the frustration.

Yugo's comments are correct, IMO. Pushing here is probably +$EV. But generally not worth the risk reward.

[brizzypare]

This is a follow-up question for you guys.

If you had a read on the BB as tight, would a raise to t150 or t200 be out of the question? Is raising to t150 and folding to a BB push a -EV play?

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
David, just keep pushing your hand into your face. I'm starting to see the frustration.

Yugo's comments are correct, IMO. Pushing here is probably +$EV. But generally not worth the risk reward.

[/ QUOTE ]
You mean +Chip EV, right? Cuz +$EV = automatic play, unless something else is even more +$EV.

[two_dogs]

This question is for u scuba and i think it is what David is getting at but no one has addressed.If he doesn't push here and the blinds go up before it gets around to him how much FE does he have when his stack is at the t495-t445 level?

[Phil Van Sexton]

This is the kind of play that a lot of players will take personally. In other words, the BB is not going to forget that you bullied him, and he'll be looking to play back at you at some point. This is not good. You are going to need him to fold on levels 4 and 5 when you push your meager stack.

I prefer not to make moves like this until level 5 (or level 4 if I have a small stack).

The same goes for coming over the top of a min-raiser or a SB limper. These are all good plays, but are much more effective the 1st time you do them because your opponent will remember them and adjust. If you wait until later, you will win more in blinds, and they have less time to adjust since the tournament will be over soon.

That being said, I'd probably call here and see what happens. I know out-of-position, etc, etc. I don't care. I'm throwing in 25 more with A4 and see if I can flop something, or take it down on the turn if he checks the flop. You can call it "chip spewing", but I prefer to think of it as "trying to make something happen".

[kspade]

[ QUOTE ]

Yugo's comments are correct, IMO. Pushing here is probably +$EV. But generally not worth the risk reward.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would some kind soul please explain this to me? I don't understand - isn't +$EV worth the risk? TIA /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

He will likely have little to no FE as his stack gets that low. Essentially you're waiting for a hand, which is very likely in the AJo range (see Push or Wait? (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=194 1378&fpart=1&PHPSESSID=)), and likely within ten hands. Hero will have to either push or call when he/she finds that hand. Hero needs to double up more than steal blinds when chipstacks are this low IMO. As stated in an earlier thread, this is one of the few situations where I'm willing to take a coinflip.

[Scuba Chuck]

Folding = 8.69% of the prize pool
Pushing, steal blinds = 9.7% of equity prize pool
Pushing, called & win = 16.8% of the equity prize pool
Pushing, called & lose = 0.0% of the equity prize pool

Assumed Hand Range BB will call with?
99+, AQs+. probability of having these hands 2.1%
A4o has a 27% win probability against this range:

Therefore:
Pushing = (.978)(.097)+(.021)(.27)(.168) = .0957
Pushing = 9.57% of the equity prize pool.

The major problem with this equation, is that my assumption on Hand Ranges is completely wrong at the $10+1s. As I begin to include more and more hand choices (like 22, or KQs), this will 'narrow the gap' between pushing and folding. Thus, even if this play is marginally +$EV, I don't think it's worth the risk. But if you know BB is uber-tight, and would only call with the above Hand range, then this is a good play, IMO.

So the real risk reward isn't solved by your $EV analysis, but by your table read analysis.

Does that make sense?

[nova]

Depending on what you know about the BB could make your decision on this one. Sometimes at tables I've seen a big blind fold to a raise a large percentage of the time, responding to myself in the SB or the button before me.

If he would routinely play back, then you may be making a stand with ace-rag which isn't always the best thing. assuming he has 5's or better, your only hope is for an ace. If he's an Ace / anything player, you could already be outkicked. Likewise with suits: he may have a J10s and catch one of the remaining cards.

If the blinds aren't eating you up, and you feel good that you'll get respect, a good sized raise may cause him to fold. If he calls, play it as you would from early position. if he reraises, you probably want to junk the hand.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
- isn't +$EV worth the risk

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Cuz +$EV = automatic play, unless something else is even more +$EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are my thoughts and opinions. When $EV calculations are marginal, then it is important to consider other factors. I've hashed this out quite a bit in this post, who calls in this scenario? (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1979257&page=2&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1).

Second of all, $EV calculations have to be considered in the larger scheme of things. Subpart of your question, "unless something else is more $EV" is a great answer to your own question. And I think that Sklansky discusses this in TPFAP with regards to waiting one day to get a better $EV opportunity with a different coinflip bookie.

Your win opportunity COULD be marginal depending on your table read. Therefore, waiting for a better opportunity, or hand very likely could be MORE +$EV. BTW, if this is level 4, this is an autopush, as Pushing, steal blinds = 10.4% of the equity prize pool. Much more worth the risk reward.

I'm sure Yugo will agree with this analysis... (right?)
Scuba
Whose skin has toughened up again.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
a good sized raise may cause him to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree more with this line. There are certainly arguments against this. But a raise to 200, IMO, represents a strong hand more than a push, which looks more like a steal. Obviously if you're called, you're probably doing a Stop-n-go.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
This is the kind of play that a lot of players will take personally. In other words, the BB is not going to forget that you bullied him, and he'll be looking to play back at you at some point. This is not good. You are going to need him to fold on levels 4 and 5 when you push your meager stack.

I prefer not to make moves like this until level 5 (or level 4 if I have a small stack).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what I was thinking when I finally decided to fold. I felt like if I folded my SB now, when I pushed on level 4 or 5, he would feel like I had a really good hand.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a good sized raise may cause him to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree more with this line. There are certainly arguments against this. But a raise to 200, IMO, represents a strong hand more than a push, which looks more like a steal. Obviously if you're called, you're probably doing a Stop-n-go.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do get handcuffed into the "push or fold" regime too often, I think. I noticed somewhere else a comment about "a small raise is often scarier than a push," and I think I agree.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I do get handcuffed into the "push or fold" regime too often, I think

[/ QUOTE ]

The party poker stack structure does that to you. I've played over 2,000 SNGs now, and I still sometimes think that way. IMO, it's a crutch at my stage of learning. But, it's been a profitable crutch.

[ilya]

I really like Phil's reply. Pushing may be slightly +$EV if you consider this hand in isolation, but it lowers your FE for future pushes. Since most of your total pushing equity comes from your folding equity, lowering the latter lowers your $EV for those hands, when the stakes are greater. There are few better ways to increase/repair your FE against the BB than open-folding in the SB, so I like folding the A4 here (unless the BB is very passive, in which case I would complete).
I don't think this is just a level 3 play. If this was level 4 and I had 1200, I'd go ahead and fold for the same reasons.

As for whether you'll have folding equity with your stack when the blinds go up to 50/100 - of course you will. Saying that you won't is rubbish, at least for the lower levels. At the $20s, you have very substantial folding equity even with just 3xBB.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
As for whether you'll have folding equity with your stack when the blinds go up to 50/100 - of course you will. Saying that you won't is rubbish, at least for the lower levels. At the $20s, you have very substantial folding equity even with just 3xBB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ilya, so let me make sure I'm interpreting your reponse here. When you have 3xBB, on level 4, you will look for opportunities to push with substandard hands in the attempts that you will just "steal" the blinds? And (assuming there isn't an upcoming blind change), that you find this to be more advantageous than waiting for a hand you'd prefer to do battle with?

I am very interested in discussing FE concepts more, especially in regard to being short-stacked. I think about this a lot, and have experimented with a bit, on the $33s.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is the kind of play that a lot of players will take personally. In other words, the BB is not going to forget that you bullied him, and he'll be looking to play back at you at some point. This is not good. You are going to need him to fold on levels 4 and 5 when you push your meager stack.

I prefer not to make moves like this until level 5 (or level 4 if I have a small stack).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what I was thinking when I finally decided to fold. I felt like if I folded my SB now, when I pushed on level 4 or 5, he would feel like I had a really good hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you guys here. I tend not to push back from the SB until I have a hand or I really need to win the blinds. It's always seemed to me people look at making moves here as blatant stealing even moreso than when you steal from the button.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As for whether you'll have folding equity with your stack when the blinds go up to 50/100 - of course you will. Saying that you won't is rubbish, at least for the lower levels. At the $20s, you have very substantial folding equity even with just 3xBB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ilya, so let me make sure I'm interpreting your reponse here. When you have 3xBB, on level 4, you will look for opportunities to push with substandard hands in the attempts that you will just "steal" the blinds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, absolutely. I think it's pretty +$EV to push almost any 2 from the SB and a very wide range from the BB when you have 3xBB in the $20s (as long as the stacks in the blinds aren't *huge* or *tiny*).
Every time I do it, I cringe because I just can't believe people will fold very often. Yet they do.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm sure Yugo will agree with this analysis... (right?)


[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty much, /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Here's the deal. Pushing on level 3 here may be slightly +$EV, but frankly running an accurate sim is sort of worthless. Phil really summed it all up (and Ilya pounced on it) but then drew the wrong conclusion (he wants to limp!?!?!).

By folding here you are:
1. waiting for a better +$EV spot (this is assuming pushing here is +$EV, which it easily may not be depending on your opponent)
2. letting other players hemmorage $EV to you in the meantime
3. increase your Shania which you will desperately need later to make a +$EV move (which Ilya already discussed is possible even @ the wild and wooly $22s).
4. folding....which is sublime...

Yugoslav

[kspade]

thanks for the explanation, Scuba! I have a lot to learn.

[Shanemex]

I've seen you mention Shania a couple of times now. WTF are you talking about? Thanks

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, absolutely. I think it's pretty +$EV to push almost any 2 from the SB and a very wide range from the BB when you have 3xBB in the $20s (as long as the stacks in the blinds aren't *huge* or *tiny*).
Every time I do it, I cringe because I just can't believe people will fold very often. Yet they do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Beyond the SB/BB situation, how much weight are you giving FE here?

[ QUOTE ]
At the $20s, you have very substantial folding equity even with just 3xBB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I took this to mean something more than just the SB/BB situation, that this was a little more universal. Let me know if I misinterpreted this thought.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen you mention Shania (http://www.decisionproblem.com/shania.html) a couple of times now. WTF are you talking about? Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

[curtains]

I think folding here preflop is terrible. Depends on a few factors whether I'd raise or just call. (Most of the time I'd raise here)

[ilya]

I should have expressed myself more precisely. I meant that you have surprisingly strong FE in the SB and button positions, and also that you have enough FE to justify protecting it by pushing with a wide range UTG 4-handed.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I should have expressed myself more precisely. I meant that you have surprisingly strong FE in the SB and button positions, and also that you have enough FE to justify protecting it by pushing with a wide range UTG 4-handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, that sounds a lot different than

[ QUOTE ]
Saying that you won't is rubbish, at least for the lower levels. At the $20s, you have very substantial folding equity even with just 3xBB.


[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds like it advocates 'stealing' from positions other than described above, which is what I would disagree with.

Regardless, I only partially agree with your statement, maybe like 70% or so. Especially the 4 handed one. The other stacks would be so mammoth in comparison to your stack, it would be hard for them not to call, at least it would be hard for me.

[Degen]

maybe i play bad but the 25-50 level i'm still in my ultra tight mode...

Degen