running bad or just bad? (stats post)

[sammy_g]

A few days ago I made this post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=headsup&Number=1976928&For um=All_Forums&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=19 76928&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=9906&daterang e=1&newerval=1&newertype=w&olderval=&oldertype=&bo dyprev=#Post1976928) about tightening up and trying to change my game and taking a shot at 10/20.

Well, here are the results so far:

http://home.nc.rr.com/padgett/1020sucks.JPG

Ugh. Of course my win rate is not accurate -- sample size yada yada yada -- but this is not encouraging. At all. I can't wait until 10k hands to post PT stats because I need a tourniquet now. If the bleeding doesn't stop quickly, I will have to retreat to 5/10, beaten.

So what am I doing wrong? Am I running bad, or am I just bad?

Looks like maybe I'm going to showdown too much. I dunno.

My aggression stats look like this:

Pre-flop: 1.20
Flop: 2.49
Turn: 1.84
River: 1.14
Total: 1.60

Pretty weak, but it feels like I'm playing so aggressive. Maybe calling down too much when beaten.

Again I know I can't look at Amount Won for my recent stats because of sample size, but my VP$IP and PFR and WtSD should be close to their true numbers. I would greatly appreciate any feedback before I drop another 2k or more.

(On the bright side, I'm nearly on pace in my -$60k in 60 days quest.)

[Danenania]

Dude this many hands seriously means absolutely nothing.

[tolbiny]

although the 14% pfr seems low.

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude this many hands seriously means absolutely nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]
I know, it's just I have to drop back down if I don't turn it around soon. I thought I would throw this out there to see if anyone spotted any obvious leaks. VP$IP and PFR should be close to their true values, even if win rate is not.

I posted some PT stats after 3k hands when I started 5/10. I got flamed for sample size -- but I also got some helpful feedback and plugged some leaks early which I'm sure saved me money.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
I know, it's just I have to drop back down if I don't turn it around soon.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps you should commit a larger BR to your endeavor?

[Jeff W]

Don't sweat it. You don't really believe that you're a -4.43 BB/100 player, do you?

Stepping down to 5/10 is probably a good idea if the money is meaningful. The games will be there next week when you're ready to give them another go.

[balkii]

my god

i've berated you in the past about stats post but this is just absurd.

2 thousand hands?

you know when i made one of my first posts on 2+2 some 2 years ago, my question was very similar to yours: "how do you know if you are getting unlucky or you just suck?"

2 years of playing cards and reading this forum has taught me: if you have to ask...

[helpmeout]

Dont waste peoples time with a 3k hands stats post.

If you dont know what you are doing wrong play fewer tables and pay attention. If you are are already playing few tables and its not working move back down.

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
my god

i've berated you in the past about stats post but this is just absurd.

2 thousand hands?

[/ QUOTE ]
Why is it absurd to ask if stats like VP$IP and PFR look OK after 2,700 hands? These stats converge quickly. I know win rate is not even close to accurate. I state that several times in the post. This is not about win rate.

In that same post where you berated me, some other posters mentioned that my VP$IP was too high. In that thread, I learned that I was playing too many hands -- mostly pocket pairs and suited connectors. I learned something in that thread that saved me money!

This is not a "Do I suck?" post. This is a "Do you see anything obviously wrong?" post. Am I not raising enough? Going to showdown too often? Not being aggressive enough? I don't know what truly good stats are at 10/20. I have some idea, but I'm looking for feedback from better, more experienced players.

If I came back and posted this after 10k hands, my VP$IP would be about 22-23 and my PFR would be about 14-15 -- about the same as now. So why not talk about these now? I would rather find the leaks sooner.

Stats don't tell you if you're playing right, but they do often tell you if you're playing wrong. They help you find leaks. If you don't like stats posts, you shouldn't have opened this thread.

If your complaint is sample size, I don't think that is fair either. If I black out Amount Won and BB/100, my other stats after 100k hands are going to look very similar to what they are now after about 3k. If these stats didn't converge quickly, our PT data on other players would be useless. We often make judgments about other players with only a few hundred hands on them by looking at VP$IP, PFR, and aggression. Is that absurd, too?

My biggest pet-peeve about 2+2 is that it can be an echo chamber. We've learned that you don't know your win rate after even 100k hands. So anytime someone posts something with only 3k or 5k or 10k or 20k hands, all of the regulars say "Absurd! Sample size! Don't waste our time!" Everyone repeats this, without really thinking about it, without considering that you might not need to have 100k hands to look at ANY stat in PokerTracker.

What no one seems to realize is that some stats ARE fairly accurate after only a few thousand hands, and they are worth looking at.

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
My biggest pet-peeve about 2+2 is that it can be an echo chamber.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
What no one seems to realize is that some stats ARE fairly accurate after only a few thousand hands, and they are worth looking at.

[/ QUOTE ]

[MAxx]

If you are looking for answers to questions for stats that converge fairly quickly... such as VPIP and PFR... don't you already know how your stats measure.

22vpip can be a profitable vpip?

you can be profitable with a 14% pfr.

your agression stats look like you are not aggressive.

Blind defense looks like it is in the standard range.

anymore questions?

showdown stats.....close to standard

[Danenania]

I agree with MAxx. When I said you couldn't tell anything from this sample size I assumed you knew that VPIP/PFR were in a perfectly profitable range, as the topic has been discussed at great length on this forum. Same with other stats that have already converged.

FWIW, my blind defense, went to SD, won $ at SD, and AF can all vary quite a bit in different samples of 2k hands so I wouldn't say any of these are very reliable.