Does my strong read on a drunk guy justify this fold? Caesars IN 10/20

[Bigdaddydvo]

Caesars IN 10/20 game last friday that I'm beating for about +25BB at this point. I acknowledge in advance the dubious nature of my preflop call. Please follow along:

Dvo is BB w/Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif Folded to CO who limps, button limps. SB raises. He has been drinking, is friendly, and is apparently unconcerned about giving away information during the hand. Dvo calls. 4 to the flop (4BB)

Flop: T /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif2 /images/graemlins/club.gif.

SB bets, Dvo raises, CO calls, button folds, SB calls.

I raised here on the chance that SB is betting an unimproved AK. This gives me 6 overcard outs and 4 gutshot outs...plenty to take a stand with in a raised 4 handed pot. After the CO calls, the drunk guy says "Dammit! I'm sure I had the best hand before the flop!" Based on his demeanor, I read him for AA-QQ, nothing worse, effectively negating my overcard outs.

Turn: 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB checks, Dvo checks, CO bets, BB calls, <font color="red">Dvo folds</font>.

Assume my read is correct: Is not betting the turn OK, since I deemed there was little chance to win the pot?

Next, is not calling the turn bet OK? I figured by the time it gets to me there are 9BB in the pot and I need 11-1 to make it a break-even proposition. Perhaps I should have considered future implied odds of a river payoff if I hit my hand?

Fighting the temptation to be results oriented, the 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif arrived on the river (which leads me to question if my turn play cost me this pot)

Results:

<font color="white">SB shows 1 pair KcKh, CO shows straight Jd7d </font>

[TStoneMBD]

good raise on the flop, terrible fold on the turn.

[lostinthought]

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps I should have considered future implied odds of a river payoff if I hit my hand?


[/ QUOTE ]

yup. why wouldn't you?

I would have peeled off the river card for one.

nice read though.

[etizzle]

if he has a good read on the drunk guy it cant be at terrible fold. In fact it looks like a good one (although probably about neutral ev with implied odds).

[damaniac]

Well if we assume we have 4 clean outs out of 44 cards (our 2, 4 on the board, and we are dead sure that BB has a pocket pair queens or higher), we are in fact getting 10-1, which means we only need to make 1 BB on the river to make this EV neutral. Worst case, we hit and we bet out, we are getting called in at least one spot, maybe 2. We can alternatively risk a check raise and earn 3 or 4 bb's. Folding seems to be -EV considering we can count on at least breaking even if we hit on the river.

[CaliStyle]

He had K,K and you read him for aces through queens, meaning you are drawing to a four outer and there is not enough money in the pot for you to call if you are sure he has that hand. What cost you the pot was the CO betting a hand and not giving you a free card. You are only going to hit this one in eleven times and you know that SB is calling the turn and the river, so you are looking at four outs unless you really think he is weak tight enough to fold on the turn to your bet.

[CaliStyle]

My mistake. I didn't realize there was enough in the pot to peel one off for a gutshot. Especially if he knows his queen or jack is no good.

[onegymrat]

[ QUOTE ]
I raised here on the chance that SB is betting an unimproved AK.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not a great thing to put him on this hand specifically, especially since he's drunk, which could mean he may have an even weaker hand. But if you are going to insist that he does not have a big pair, why not wait for the turn to raise which would most likely drive out the field while folding SB without a showdown?