Mark Heide
10-11-2002, 03:16 AM
My investment philosophy is not to buy stocks unless they are on sale, which means I'm a value investor. With that being said, IBM would have to drop to $46 per share, and GE would have to be $12 a share. I pick stocks based on intrinsic value and economic conditions, and I use the Robert Hagstrom model at www.quicken.com. (http://www.quicken.com.) My stock picks are PPD, WHI, RDN, FBP, HRB, MNTR, GVA, FELE, ETH, ADP, HRL, BMS, BK, and SYI. All of my picks meet the criteria of being on sale compared to their intrinsic value. As far as economic conditions, I believe that the employment situation is mixed, and the fear of war with Iraq will have some effect on the market which creates uncertainty for predicting the future growth rate of the economy. Last year some economic analysts estimated that job growth would be 17% by the end of this year, now the estimate has been revised to 3% (I heard this on WebFN today, so I don't know who said it, but maybe someone can provide the link to that story).
Many technical analysts are stating that we have probably hit the market bottom and there will be a rally that will bring the S&P up over 900 again. If the market follows last years trends which started with a rally in November, then we could predict the possible outcomes for stocks. So, lets compare my picks with IBM.
IBM vs. PPD
http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=1YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=IBM%2CPPD
If you look at the chart, you will notice that IBM lost its momentum in January, whereas PPD rallied up to May.
GE vs. PPD
http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=1YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=GE%2CPPD
As you can see, GE did not rally last November, so IBM was the better buy.
IBM vs. WHI
http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=1YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=IBM%2CWHI
WHI rallied from last November up until September this year.
IBM vs. RDN
http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=1YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=IBM%2CRDN
RDN rallied up until June.
IBM vs. FBP
http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=1YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=IBM%2CFBP
FBP didn't rally last fall, but took off in April and has done well until September.
IBM vs. HRB
http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=1YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=IBM%2CHRB
HRB outperformed IBM all year, but did have some dips as you can see.
IBM vs. MNTR
http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=1YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=IBM%2CMNTR
MNTR performed well throughout this year. They introduced a new penile implant for men with drug resistant erectile last month. Plenty of upside here. /forums/images/icons/grin.gif
This is just a sampling of my list. All the stocks I picked outperformed the S&P 500. I believe that if we do have a rally we will have a bear market rally based on emotion and not economics, but you can capitalize on it. The stocks I have indicated have just as much potential as some of the well known names, but without as much risk. This is just my opinion on how I view the market.
Good Luck
Mark
Many technical analysts are stating that we have probably hit the market bottom and there will be a rally that will bring the S&P up over 900 again. If the market follows last years trends which started with a rally in November, then we could predict the possible outcomes for stocks. So, lets compare my picks with IBM.
IBM vs. PPD
http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=1YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=IBM%2CPPD
If you look at the chart, you will notice that IBM lost its momentum in January, whereas PPD rallied up to May.
GE vs. PPD
http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=1YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=GE%2CPPD
As you can see, GE did not rally last November, so IBM was the better buy.
IBM vs. WHI
http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=1YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=IBM%2CWHI
WHI rallied from last November up until September this year.
IBM vs. RDN
http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=1YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=IBM%2CRDN
RDN rallied up until June.
IBM vs. FBP
http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=1YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=IBM%2CFBP
FBP didn't rally last fall, but took off in April and has done well until September.
IBM vs. HRB
http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=1YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=IBM%2CHRB
HRB outperformed IBM all year, but did have some dips as you can see.
IBM vs. MNTR
http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?period=1YEAR&charttype=HIST&big=off&plot=LINE&oth ersym=&mavg=&dji=&sp500=&nasdaq=&p=IBM%2CMNTR
MNTR performed well throughout this year. They introduced a new penile implant for men with drug resistant erectile last month. Plenty of upside here. /forums/images/icons/grin.gif
This is just a sampling of my list. All the stocks I picked outperformed the S&P 500. I believe that if we do have a rally we will have a bear market rally based on emotion and not economics, but you can capitalize on it. The stocks I have indicated have just as much potential as some of the well known names, but without as much risk. This is just my opinion on how I view the market.
Good Luck
Mark