Overplay?

[Pokey]

Here's a hand I played today, and I wanted to hear what you folks thought about my decisions. It was my third hand on the table, so I'm afraid I had no read on anybody at the time.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: <font color="purple">Pokey</font> is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="purple">Pokey raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button <font color="green">(Nemesis)</font> calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="purple">Pokey bets</font>, <font color="green">Nemesis</font> calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="purple">Pokey bets</font>, <font color="green">Nemesis</font> calls.

River: (6.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="purple">Pokey bets</font>, <font color="green">Nemesis raises</font>, <font color="purple">Pokey 3-bets</font>....

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

<font color="blue">Pokey's thinkin':</font>

1. Pre-flop I was ready to call, but with everybody in front of me folding, I wanted to raise to drive out modest drawing hands, possibly buy the button, and try to seize control over the hand and the table.

2. Flop was betting the board and my preflop strength. The inside straight is obviously junk, but if I can adequately represent the Q I hope to get at least one opponent out, and possibly both.

3. You have got to be kidding me; I hit my inside straight? Yowza. Sure, there's a flush on the board now, but it's only a three-flush. <font color="green">Nemesis</font> called two cold on the flop; I put him on high cards or a high pair. Post flop, I can narrow his holding to probably A-Q, K-Q, or a high pair. I bet on strength.

4. Owie. That board Q gives me the Full House Heebie-Jeebies. I still don't think <font color="green">Nemesis</font> has a flush, but since he likely had a Q, he might have hit a boat. I bet it, since a straight is a solid hand given his possible holdings. He raises....

5. <font color="green">Nemesis</font> raised on the river. What does he have? Possibly a flush, but most people who would slow-play that wouldn't speed up when the board pairs high on the river. I still think Q-? is his most likely holding, and I think his other card is probably high, given his play on previous streets. Given that I feel I still have him beaten, I three-bet it.

What do you think? Specifically:

1. Is the preflop raise worthwhile?
2. Is raising the flop a good idea?
3. What did <font color="green">Nemesis</font> have in his hand?
4. Was three-betting the river a bad choice?
5. What do you think happens next?

[crunchy1]

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1. Is the preflop raise worthwhile?

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Sure.

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2. Is raising the flop a good idea?

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Where did a flop "raise" occur? If you're talking about betting the flop - yes, it's fine.

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3. What did <font color="green">Nemesis</font> have in his hand?

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99 or 66.

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4. Was three-betting the river a bad choice?

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Yes, because he caught the full. If he wouldn't have then you should be three betting.

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5. What do you think happens next?

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Nemesis caps. You call.

[gchaos]

Ok, I will take a stab at this...

1. I fold preflop with KTo from MP2. From the cutoff and button, I definitely raise (sometimes from MP3 as well depending on reads).
2. I think leading out on the flop is fine (but re-raising IF it is raised behind you is chip spewing)
3. My guess is Nemesis had Q4 or some crap for 3 of kind. I suspect he would come life a little earlier if he had something like 66, 99, or AQ. Yes, he could have been waiting for the turn to raise with 66, and then slowed down when the flush card hit. But I think that is just as likely as him having a weak Q.
4. I think 3-betting the river is a close call. I would do it though.
5. I think he capped, you called and you take down the pot.

[Pokey]

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1. Is the preflop raise worthwhile?

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Sure.

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I try to be very aggressive, so this was a pretty easy move for me. I'm glad to get some approval.

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2. Is raising the flop a good idea?

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Where did a flop "raise" occur? If you're talking about betting the flop - yes, it's fine.

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Arrrgh, caught up in my own web of lies. /images/graemlins/wink.gif Typo on my part; I meant the bet.

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3. What did <font color="green">Nemesis</font> have in his hand?

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99 or 66.

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Wow. Really? I've been staring at this hand for awhile and I still don't see it. A player frisky enough to call two cold PF with a 66 is likely to raise with three of 'em on the flop, don't you think? Also, I'm thinking that a strong player with 99 preflop would probably raise it to go heads-up. I guess a weak player might slow-play the set on the flop, but even in the face of a two-flush? I freely admit that this identification would have been MUCH easier if I'd had a read on <font color="green">Nemesis</font>, but I'm just having a really hard time putting him on 66 or 99, given his pre-flop and flop behavior. What leads you in that direction?

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4. Was three-betting the river a bad choice?

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Yes, because he caught the full. If he wouldn't have then you should be three betting.

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Clearly, if he has a boat I shouldn't be raising here, but how sure are you that he does? I wasn't betting for a fold, I was betting for value. To my mind, he had less than a 50/50 chance of having me beaten. Am I way off on that assessment?

[meep_42]

In no particular order -- I probably muck PF. Flop fine, turn fine.

River -- I probably call -- but the way he played it, I don't think a 3-bet is bad. A cap makes you want to throw up in your mouth, though. It sure smells like trip queens to me, though.

-d

[Pokey]

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1. I fold preflop with KTo from MP2. From the cutoff and button, I definitely raise (sometimes from MP3 as well depending on reads).

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It was a coin-flip for me. It seemed clear that calling would have been stupid; it was raise or fold. I was going for a blind steal or HU against BB; instead, I got involved with someone after me positionally. Ooops. Still, the costs of aggression are far outweighed by its benefits, don't you think?

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2. I think leading out on the flop is fine (but re-raising IF it is raised behind you is chip spewing)

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Agreed; this wasn't the time to play the macho cowboy. This bet was testing the waters, following through with pre-flop aggression, and hoping to narrow the field.

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3. My guess is Nemesis had Q4 or some crap for 3 of kind. I suspect he would come life a little earlier if he had something like 66, 99, or AQ. Yes, he could have been waiting for the turn to raise with 66, and then slowed down when the flush card hit. But I think that is just as likely as him having a weak Q.

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As I stated above, I have a VERY hard time seeing a situation where <font color="green">Nemesis</font> plays 66 or even 99 the way he did. I like your read of Q-rag, especially because it makes my decisions look less stupid. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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4. I think 3-betting the river is a close call. I would do it though.

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Yeah, I think the advantage to table image was what put me over the cutoff, because I was looking at this as a darned-near 50/50 situation. QQQ or boat? I simply couldn't decide, and called them pretty similar in likelihood.

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5. I think he capped, you called and you take down the pot.

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Yay me! I like your version. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Is the preflop raise worthwhile?
2. Is raising the flop a good idea?
3. What did <font color="green">Nemesis</font> have in his hand?
4. Was three-betting the river a bad choice?
5. What do you think happens next?

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts:

1. I'm fine with the raise, if you think CO and button are tight enough that you're going to get the button a lot of the time. If you had reads that they're uber-LAGs or cold-callers, I think it becomes a little more difficult to play.

I still don't mind the raise either way.

2. Flop bet is fine, another chance to get the button, which opens up your options on the turn. And while you discount your gutshot, when you couple it with your possible pair outs, it's almost a value bet anyway based on the pot size.

3. Well, without a read, this becomes a little more difficult. I'd usually expect the PF cold call to be soooted cards, a pocket pair, or broadway cards.

Given that, and the way the rest of the hand played out, I actually think his river raise is a flush or full house more often than AQ or KQ. Those are possible, yes, but a lot of people are going to raise that on the flop.

You say the board pairing discounts the possibility that a flush would raise, but if you held a flush there as the villain, I certainly wouldn't necessarily put YOU on JJ or QJ the way you played the hand. You've fired the whole way like you have a big pair or TPTK, so if I had a flush I'd feel pretty confident raising that river.

4. Yeah, I think it's a little much. I don't think a river raise there is something you beat enough to make it profitable, since if you're behind, you're certainly going to have to call a cap. If you consider the range of hands that he's raising with there, I think a raise is -EV if you do the math where you're calling a cap.

5. I think he capped and you called.

[Dopey]

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I wasn't betting for a fold, I was betting for value. To my mind, he had less than a 50/50 chance of having me beaten. Am I way off on that assessment?

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Someone correct me if Im wrong but you need to believe you have the best hand about 66% of the time for the bet to be a value bet.

If you have the best hand he will most likely at best just call your 3-bet = +1BB

If he has you beat he will most likely cap and you will call = -2BB

So you need to be 2 to 1 that you have the best hand (I assume for simplicity sake that the chance he will fold to a three bet, just call the 3-bet and have you beat, and cap even when behind all cancel each other out EV wise)

Dopey /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Seether]

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As I stated above, I have a VERY hard time seeing a situation where Nemesis plays 66 or even 99 the way he did. I like your read of Q-rag, especially because it makes my decisions look less stupid.


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Your kidding me right? You think a solid player (he is solid right?) is more likely to call 2 cold pre flop with queen rag than 66 or 99? I think your a bit delusional man, putting you on the steal he could have decided to see what the flop looks like with a hand like 66 or 99 easily. There are only 3 queen hands I could see calling 2 cold depending on the player and his opinion of you, QJs/QK/AQ, but I would definantly think 66 or 99 are more viable hands for coldcalling.

Also I think the preflop raise is not very good, maybe KTs, but unless my table was extremely tight I do not think raising from mp2 with KTo is a good idea.

[Pokey]

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Someone correct me if Im wrong but you need to believe you have the best hand about 66% of the time for the bet to be a value bet.

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See? This is EXACTLY why I need to post here more often. <font color="orange">Dopey</font>'s absolutely right, and I never thought of it that way. If I've got him beat, he'll just call, but if he's got me dead-to-rights, he's likely going to reraise again. Since I'm seeing this as QQQ vs. Boat, my raise will either make him feel way behind (and call) or way ahead (and raise). There really isn't an option of "ahead-and-fold" or "behind-but-raise" hidden in there anywhere. Great point, and thank you.

[Pokey]

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You think a solid player (he is solid right?) is more likely to call 2 cold pre flop with queen rag than 66 or 99?

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<font color="orange">Seether</font>, I agree with you entirely, but I don't assume that <font color="green">Nemesis</font> is a solid player. Remember, this is Party Poker 2/4, and it's my third hand at the table with no reads. My usual assumption in that situation is "weak until proven strong." At Party Poker, that's usually not a bad choice. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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There are only 3 queen hands I could see calling 2 cold depending on the player and his opinion of you, QJs/QK/AQ, but I would definantly think 66 or 99 are more viable hands for coldcalling.

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Again, I agree, but here the flop play becomes important. If he's reading me as pure crap, does he just check his trips? Maybe on the flop, but again on the turn? Sure, he's a total unknown in this situation, but that's an amazingly slow play, and it just doesn't feel right to me.

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Also I think the preflop raise is not very good, maybe KTs, but unless my table was extremely tight I do not think raising from mp2 with KTo is a good idea.

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That's a fair comment. Calling was out of the question, but showing some spine seemed appropriate to establish m'self at the table a bit and possibly pick up some cheap blinds in the process. Remember -- this was only my third hand at the table.

[crunchy1]

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3. What did <font color="green">Nemesis</font> have in his hand?

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99 or 66.

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Wow. Really? I've been staring at this hand for awhile and I still don't see it. A player frisky enough to call two cold PF with a 66 is likely to raise with three of 'em on the flop, don't you think? Also, I'm thinking that a strong player with 99 preflop would probably raise it to go heads-up. I guess a weak player might slow-play the set on the flop, but even in the face of a two-flush? I freely admit that this identification would have been MUCH easier if I'd had a read on <font color="green">Nemesis</font>, but I'm just having a really hard time putting him on 66 or 99, given his pre-flop and flop behavior. What leads you in that direction?

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Because that is how weak players play. I'm not giving him credit for being a strong player when he calls 2-cold on the button. Any good player is raising to isolate or dumping.

As for my #4 comment in my first reply - it was sarcastic bantering on my #3 read. I didn't really mean anything serious by it.

[crunchy1]

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Also I think the preflop raise is not very good, maybe KTs, but unless my table was extremely tight I do not think raising from mp2 with KTo is a good idea.

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That's a fair comment. Calling was out of the question, but showing some spine seemed appropriate to establish m'self at the table a bit and possibly pick up some cheap blinds in the process. Remember -- this was only my third hand at the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

I originally stated that I liked the raise - and I still do - but I do think we need some reads to make it. Probably better to set your standards a little higher until you have some information on the other players.

As far as establishing yourself..... To whom? If it's a table of TAGs who care then you need to play a couple orbits, discover that they're all TAGs and leave. If there's a bunch of FISH in the sea, well..... they could care less about you establishing yourself.