Examining the plays of a PP 15/30 player with a BB/100 of 3.5 [Archive]

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Mizzles

03-23-2005, 06:00 PM

First off let me say you guys are great, I’m happy I found this forum. You guys go out of your way to help others improve their game. If I get to your level in my lifetime, I promise to give back. I’m working on it.

My BB/100 is 1.9. In attempting to improve it, I took a look at some known hands from a 15/30 PP player with a BB/100 of 3.5 (over 20,000 hands), designated as HERO below.

I don’t understand some of the below plays. What am I doing wrong? I posted the plays he made, and the plays I would have made. Is my line so far off?

**** H A N D # 1 ****

MP3 : VP$IP: 28.5, PFR: 10.6

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
5 folds, MP3 raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, MP3 calls.

Flop: (6.66 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls.

Turn: (4.33 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls.

River: (6.33 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls.


MY PLAY / COMMENTS

3-betting A9o out of position? What? Betting the river with 2 overcards and straight written all over the board? I hate calling Ax off out of the BB, I seem to be losing money on this play. You guys call these? But if I called preflop, my line would be to CR the flop, bet the turn, check the river and possibly even fold to a river bet.


**** H A N D # 2 ****

CO Stats: 52 / 17/ 1.86

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO raises, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
MP1 checks, CO bets, Hero raises, MP1 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (5.83 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks.

River: (5.83 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
CO bets, Hero calls.


MY PLAY / COMMENTS

I would probably 3-bet the 17% PFRaiser preflop, but just calling is not too far off in my book. OK. But calling the river bet?


**** H A N D # 3 ****

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
6 folds, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, SB caps, 1 fold, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, Button raises, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, Button caps, SB calls $5 (All-In), Hero calls.

Turn: (12.16 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

River: (14.16 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls.


MY PLAY / COMMENTS

Without a diamond I fold this one on the flop, no way I chase this gushot / overcards on the flop with 2 people still to act behind me. Am I out of line?


**** H A N D # 4 ****

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (6.66 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, Button folds, BB calls.

Turn: (5.33 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (7.33 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

MY PLAY / COMMENTS

I fold this preflop. Raising with J10s from MP1?


**** H A N D # 5 ****

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $15.
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 (poster) checks, Hero calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (3 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (3 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
SB bets, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 folds, Hero raises, Button folds, SB calls.

MY PLAY / COMMENTS

I would never play 34o preflop. Raising the river??? I don’t get it


**** H A N D # 6 ****

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $15.
1 fold, Hero calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
SB bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB caps, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.


MY PLAY / COMMENTS

I don’t understand 3-betting this flop. I fold this when it’s 2 bets to me.

philnewall

03-23-2005, 06:15 PM

Hero....doesn't seem like a great player to me, looks like he misplayed almost all of these hands in some way. 20000 hands isn't a lot.

TStoneMBD

03-23-2005, 06:22 PM

hand 1: terrible pf 3bet. tough river situation, but i guess bet/fold to a raise if your best line. if mp3 is even slightly capable of bluffraising you, then check-call.

hand 2: 3bet if youre going to play. not a good place to coldcall. terrible river call.

hand 3: tough place to be in with that flop. the aggression levels of both players are really important here. even if the button raises and the SB calls, you have more than enough odds to continue. however, having to play a gutshot in a capped flop is not the place you want to be. i think calling the turn is pretty bad, as its very likely that youre drawing dead.

hand 4: i think the preflop raise is fine sometimes. i play JTs UTG in many games, as do many others. if its playable UTG then its often worth a raise MP1. definitely bet the river.

hand 5: obviously a terrible play. put that guy on your buddy list.

hand 6: i would also fold the flop here. again, player notes are very important in these spots, but against unknowns id muck.

mach3

03-23-2005, 06:26 PM

I second that 20k is not enough to justify a win rate. People say that on here all the time and it is quite true. I've had chunks of 20-30k hands where I thought I was the second coming of Stu Ungar and chunks where I was certain it was only a matter of days before my bankroll vanished. It all balances out in the end - if you're at 2.0 BB a hand, I'd say you're doing fine.

As for the plays - he must have a good feel for the table and his opponents, otherwise some of those are hard to explain. The K high call - not sure I follow that. A9o 3 bet - again, he must had some read on the raiser. The TJs raise, not the worst play around, but a little loose IMO.

One question - is your hero a mulitabler? My game is one of volume. I notice that when I reduce the # of tables, my winrate creeps past the often referenced 2.0BB/100 line - definite trade off.

mikelow

03-23-2005, 06:27 PM

Well, looking at all six hands, that looks like a player
at -3.5BB/100. And as badly as I play, yessh!
Three-betting with A9o? Playing 43o (mark it down, I'm gonna play that one next session), and calling with king-high expecting to win a showdown--I think this player's coming back to earth.

30*3.5*200=21000. Ni rush, sir. Hope it lasts. It shows
that even 200 hours of play (assuming 100 hands per hour) is still a pretty small sample size.

Justin A

03-23-2005, 06:28 PM

This guy is not a good player. Sample size is too small, he's just been running really good.

AviD

03-23-2005, 08:06 PM

I didn't get past the second hand and I wanted to hurl. Throw all that away Mizzles...waste of time. He's been running good and that 3.5BBs isn't over alot of hands.

Either these are extreme examples of him getting lucky or...well its only one thing...he's getting lucky and running good.

Move on, waste of time here IMO.

mmcd

03-23-2005, 08:15 PM

The lack of a river bet in hand 4 is disgusting.

surfdoc

03-23-2005, 08:16 PM

Unbelievable. Note to self: MUST KEEP PLAYING.

Roy Hobbs

03-23-2005, 08:19 PM

Yes, this is by far the worst decision that he makes in the posted hands. And especially puzzling given how otherwise aggressive he seems.

RH

BeerGolfPoker

03-23-2005, 08:27 PM

Mizzles,

Do you know for a fact that this guy has made 3.5BB/100 over 20K hands? Just wondering.

Obviously the sample size is too small to determine his true winrate (er, lossrate), but if these results are true, then given his horrid play I find them oddly encouraging.

Ulysses

03-23-2005, 08:31 PM

FWIW, I've had 20k stretches of hands in the 10/20-6 game where I made 0BB/100 and I've also had 20k stretches of hands in that game where I made >5BB/100. My BB/100 over a lot of hands in that game hovered around 3BB/100.

This player looks like he pretty much sucks.

Ulysses

03-23-2005, 08:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you know for a fact that this guy has made 3.5BB/100 over 20K hands? Just wondering.

Obviously the sample size is too small to determine his true winrate (er, lossrate), but if these results are true, then given his horrid play I find them oddly encouraging.

[/ QUOTE ]

The proper conclusion here is not that if you play better than this clown you have a good shot at making over 3.5BB/100. It's that there's a sick amount of luck at poker.

astroglide

03-23-2005, 08:36 PM

[censored]! they've found me.

surfdoc

03-23-2005, 08:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's that there's a sick amount of luck at poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo.

Mizzles

03-23-2005, 09:52 PM

OK thanks guys for all the replies. I guess 20K hands isn't worth as much as I thought.

I guess I learned that this guy has probably just been having a good run of luck.

PHEW I was starting to doubt myself.

BeerGolfPoker

03-24-2005, 01:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you know for a fact that this guy has made 3.5BB/100 over 20K hands? Just wondering.

Obviously the sample size is too small to determine his true winrate (er, lossrate), but if these results are true, then given his horrid play I find them oddly encouraging.

[/ QUOTE ]

The proper conclusion here is not that if you play better than this clown you have a good shot at making over 3.5BB/100. It's that there's a sick amount of luck at poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not at all the conclusion I was attempting to draw from this sample. Winning more than 3.5BB/100 hands long term on the PP 15/30 is ridiculous.

I was more alluding to the general state of the PP 15/30 game, based on players like this going on runs like this. This is good.

MaxPower

03-24-2005, 02:02 AM

Are these typical hands for him? Everyone has there bad moments.

Misclicks?

I do see a lot of players with 19/10 pre-flop stats who make the most inexplicable plays.

Ulysses

03-24-2005, 03:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Winning more than 3.5BB/100 hands long term on the PP 15/30 is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it ridiculous?

[ QUOTE ]
I was more alluding to the general state of the PP 15/30 game, based on players like this going on runs like this. This is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough.

haakee

03-24-2005, 03:16 AM

Yep, I only looked at hand 1 and this guy is making errors. Don't emulate him, and realize that 20K hands is a small sample size.

roy_miami

03-24-2005, 03:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
**** H A N D # 1 ****

MY PLAY / COMMENTS

3-betting A9o out of position? What? Betting the river with 2 overcards and straight written all over the board? I hate calling Ax off out of the BB, I seem to be losing money on this play. You guys call these? But if I called preflop, my line would be to CR the flop, bet the turn, check the river and possibly even fold to a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this

[ QUOTE ]
**** H A N D # 2 ****

MY PLAY / COMMENTS

I would probably 3-bet the 17% PFRaiser preflop, but just calling is not too far off in my book. OK. But calling the river bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I 3-bet preflop as well. I would probably bet the turn and maybe check the river. I don't think his river call is all that bad based on CO stats.

[ QUOTE ]
**** H A N D # 3 ****

MY PLAY / COMMENTS

Without a diamond I fold this one on the flop, no way I chase this gushot / overcards on the flop with 2 people still to act behind me. Am I out of line?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would not have called 2 more bets back with KQo preflop here. I agree with the flop fold though if I was in it.

[ QUOTE ]
**** H A N D # 4 ****

MY PLAY / COMMENTS

I fold this preflop. Raising with J10s from MP1?

[/ QUOTE ]

There was a time when I would call 2 cold with this preflop. I don't do that anymore but I havent gotten to the point where I would muck it yet, from any position. I will see a flop for 1 bet with any hand that has royal flush potential from any position. It could be a leak, but it makes the game more exciting dammit.

[ QUOTE ]
**** H A N D # 5 ****

MY PLAY / COMMENTS

I would never play 34o preflop. Raising the river??? I don’t get it

[/ QUOTE ]

That makes 2 of us. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[ QUOTE ]
**** H A N D # 6 ****

MY PLAY / COMMENTS

I don’t understand 3-betting this flop. I fold this when it’s 2 bets to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Unless these guys are total retards...

BeerGolfPoker

03-24-2005, 03:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Winning more than 3.5BB/100 hands long term on the PP 15/30 is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it ridiculous?

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose it is theoretically possible that one could beat this game long term for >3.5BB/100, though I know of no one nor have I heard of anyone (including many of the top notch players on this forum) able to pull this off.

Perhaps if a great player single-tabled all the time, he could perform this feat.