Lev 2 hand reading

[Apathy]

***** Hand History for Game 1780915999 *****
NL Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Trny:10643817 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Wednesday, March 23, 15:49:00 EDT 2005
Table Table 11246 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: littlefredie ( $1435 )
Seat 2: Cappy88 ( $1955 )
Seat 3: Premo_Butta ( $485 )
Seat 5: anna_3299 ( $620 )
Seat 6: blaydzfsteel ( $1080 )
Seat 7: clemkane ( $980 )
Seat 8: heregoes ( $1535 )
Seat 9: Lancers97 ( $1030 )
Seat 10: Croesus13 ( $880 )
Trny:10643817 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to blaydzfsteel [ 8h 8s ]
Premo_Butta folds.
anna_3299 folds.
blaydzfsteel calls [30].
clemkane folds.
heregoes folds.
Lancers97 folds.
Croesus13 calls [30].
littlefredie calls [15].
Cappy88 raises [60].
blaydzfsteel calls [60].
Croesus13 calls [60].
littlefredie folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7d, 6d, 4d ]
Cappy88 bets [90].
blaydzfsteel calls [90].
Croesus13 calls [90].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2c ]
Cappy88 bets [100].
blaydzfsteel folds.
Croesus13 calls [100].
** Dealing River ** [ 3s ]
Cappy88 checks.
Croesus13 checks.
<font color="white"> </font>

[whynot?]

so 70% probability you folded the winning hand

i'd have put these guys with this betting on a flush/straight draw.

i'd have at least called if not pushed

[Phil Van Sexton]

Cappy raised from BB, made a fairly weak 1/2 pot bet on the flop, then a weak bet on the turn. I'm thinking AK with a diamond.

Croesus called, called, called, and called. I have no clue what he had.

I fold on the flop here. I might be behind a higher PP already, and a lot of draws/overcards could come down by the river. There's still another player left to act behind me on the flop. In addition to the $90 flop bet, I figure it will cost me at least another 200 more to call these guys down to the river. My chances for improvement are minimal (ie a non-diamond 5, so 3 outs). Fold.

After seeing the weak play on the turn and river, maybe 88 was good, but there's no way to know that on the flop.

[Apathy]

Do you think that just because I posted the hand I must have made an incorrect decision (based on the results). I think your advice is pretty bad here. What do you put the OOP PFR on then that makes a draw (the only possible answer is AdKd) why does he bet so small? What does the other person have to call the small flop bet? Note that both of these players (especailly the PFR) are competent 109ers. The PFR is probably a winning player.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
After seeing the weak play on the turn and river, maybe 88 was good, but there's no way to know that on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Next time I post I'm going to leave out more then just the showdown results as I think it biases some people's thinking as they consider information that shouldn't be available to them during the hand.

I think you give good advice here though, my thoughts on the flop are that I was getting terrific odds and might be up against AdKs or something and the player behind would drop out. When he fires again on the turn, even though it was a weak bet I fold.

[Glintir]

I'm far from a 109er, so I may be way off base, but why call the flop bet? What card can you catch on the turn that's going to keep you in?

Minraise PF, so could be a middle pair, a big hand, or maybe broadways. If he's got a flush, you're not likely to catch up. If it's a middle pair, you're behind to 9s, 10s, 7s, and 6s, hard to catch up there. If it's over cards, he may or may not have the flush draw to go with it. You're ahead but not by much.

I guess I'm thinking either fold, cause the flop isn't that great for you. Or raise and see where you stand.

[The Venetian]

I like the turn fold. I assume you called the flop hoping to get it heads-up and see what the original raiser did on the turn. When the other guy stays in after also cold-calling a min-raise pre-flop, warning bells are going off and you get out. Was this your line?

My gut tells me they both have pocket pairs of the low-to-mid variety. Seeing as the only ones you're ahead of right now are 55, 33, and 22, and it only takes one other one to beat you, I muck without a second thought.

I'll say 55 and TT, both with a diamond. I can't figure out Cappy88's line, though...that's a strange series of bets, given your and the button's responses.

[Glintir]

You're getting 3 to 1 with 3 or possibly 4 outs. (3x 5 + possibly 1x 8.) How is that good odds, or am I missing something?

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you give good advice here though, my thoughts on the flop are that I was getting terrific odds and might be up against AdKs or something and the player behind would drop out

[/ QUOTE ]

You got good pot odds, but your effective odds sucked. It's likely to cost a lot more than 90 by the time this hand is finished.

The 2c on the turn was almost a perfect card, and you still folded on the turn. This means you should've folded on the flop.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
Was this your line?


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes it was.

What if I told you guys that Cappy can ONLY have AA,KK,QQ,*JJ*,AK,*AQ* based on his PF play

*maybe*

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
The 2c on the turn was almost a perfect card, and you still folded on the turn. This means you should've folded on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not fishing for cards, I'm trying to cheaply figurre out If my hand is best.

[nokona13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Was this your line?


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes it was.

What if I told you guys that Cappy can ONLY have AA,KK,QQ,*JJ*,AK,*AQ* based on his PF play

*maybe*

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I'm definitely in "no set, no bet" territory post-flop. I mean, if you're really like 60-80% sure he's got QQ-AA, then why are you calling any bet, even one a little less than 1/2 pot? If you think he's only playing ultra-premium hands like this, do you want to spend 90 on the off chance he's betting a whiffed AK, non-diamonds?

As an aside, is it really a winning strategy with AA-QQ to minraise out of the BB against 3 limpers? Seems to me like that's building a pot that's hard to get away from while letting 3 others who wanted to limp into the hand, so any str8 or flush draw is going to be very scary, and you can't be sure that strong betting on a low, uncoordinated board isn't trips...

[Elektrik]

I fold on the flop for the reasons that Phil gave.

[curtains]

I definitely fold the flop.

[Apathy]

Results (if anyone cares):

PFR had black QQ
button had black 1010

[ilya]

I thought this thread was gonna be about figuring out what they think you have.

I fold the flop because a, I could be beaten already; b, there are like 80 scare cards that could come on the turn; c, I won't get any action if I make my straight; and d, I'm not that happy about making a set, even if it's the non-diamond 8.

Oh, another reason to fold the flop: there's a guy behind me who might a, raise forcing me to fold; or b, call, making it harder for me to bluff at a scare card on the turn.


I think if you want to keep playing on the flop, you should raise and not call. You can then either fold comfortably to a re-raise, or bluff at a lot of turn scare cards because you will probably have bought the button with your flop raise.

I am torn over whether folding or raising is the better line. Raising definitely has advantages. For example, don't you think the guy behind you will fold some better hands, like 99 and maybe even TT?

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought this thread was gonna be about figuring out what they think you have.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be nice, but I rarely get such thoughtful reponses when I post hands. I think I need to work on my technique. P.S. When I smooth call the flop it is really obvious what I have, any decent player should know I have a pair less then JJ that missed a set. More of a reason to fold the flop.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. When I smooth call the flop it is really obvious what I have, any decent player should know I have a pair less then JJ that missed a set. More of a reason to fold the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that I'm advocating this line, but how would you have played the flop if you had made the nut flush? Or how would they have expected you to play?

[Apathy]

I couldn't have the nut flush because I raise AdKd preflop and fold AdQd.

[Jason Strasser]

You seriously fold AQs here pf?

Anyhow, this hand is horribly played because you had no plan. On the flop, you are either ahead, drawing dead, or drawing to one out. That's where you make your decision. Calling the flop and folding a blank turn is silly. Did you expect him to check/fold the turn?

[microbet]

And your opponants know this for certain?

If from your action preflop and on the flop, your opponants KNOW what you have, then maybe you have to vary your play or get a new account. A lot of players will call preflop with AQs or AJs or A2s. (please don't tell me the higher buyin players don't play bad, I read the posts on this site, including the one where Dr. Gammon folded to you about a million times in a row ITM)

Again, I'm not advocating making a move here, but you had stated that your opponants would know what you had after the flop and I don't think they can be sure you don't have the flush.

[adanthar]

I get why you did what you did but I'd have liked it about a million times more if the flop was two tone.

You can't draw on this flop (not even close, your implied odds are 0) and you can't bluff at it, so fold it.

edit: BTW, the other reason your call sucks is that you're sandwiched in between the two of them on top of it.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
You seriously fold AQs here pf?

Anyhow, this hand is horribly played because you had no plan. On the flop, you are either ahead, drawing dead, or drawing to one out. That's where you make your decision. Calling the flop and folding a blank turn is silly. Did you expect him to check/fold the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I did have a plan for the hand, just a silly one. If I was HU I like my line of just calling the small bet better then raising, for the following reasons:

-If I am ahead this player will not bluff again on the turn OOP and will check-fold

-If I am behind I only lose the call money, as opposed to losing what I raised to find out if my hand was good. Against some players who will fire twice on a bluff or who are otherwise tricky this will not work, but this was not one of those players (he would make continuation bets though).

The other reason I just called in this hand was to see if the player behind me would overcall or raise. If the player behind me had dropped out and the PFR checked MHWG, and I get the pot on the turn.

This didn't seem as unlikely to me at the time as everyone is saying it should be. The button couldve limped called a big range of hands the totally missed and the PFR could have AK with a diamond or without. So I call 90 into a 300+ chip pot expecting to win it the times that the PFR has AK and the button has nothing.

Also if the button drops out and the PFR has me beat with a non diamond hand I will win the pot when a diamond hits 4th street 100% of the time.

To answer someone elses question in this thread, No the players are not good enough to know what I have, and I also forget mention that at any time I could be on a bluff, usually with a small missed pair since thats what I would be limping in. The majority of winning player in SNGs are pretty easy to read in lev 1-2 imo, especially when playing from early-mid positions. There are just so few hands that it is correct to play there.

[whynot?]

so i hear your input and maybe this is the difference between 33s and 109s but on a 33 the weak betting indicated would tell me that its a semibluff, a top pair or a monster. more often then not one of the first two.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
I did have a plan for the hand, just a silly one. If I was HU I like my line of just calling the small bet better then raising, for the following reasons:

-If I am ahead this player will not bluff again on the turn OOP and will check-fold


[/ QUOTE ]

I do this often on dry boards when I hold a mid-overpair with position against a PF raiser.

However, as the PF raiser with AA/KK/QQ in the same spot I will often bet flop check/raise turn against aggressive opponents...

I'd like to here other input on flat calling flops as opposed to raising them in this situation...

FWIW I fold this flop because too many things have to go right for me to win the hand.