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View Full Version : Pls check my stats - (somewhat long and almost emotional)


kylma
03-23-2005, 03:12 PM
Please, A short rant before I move to the actual business /images/graemlins/smile.gif I can't believe I keep on losing hour after hour, day after day, in this Omaha Hi Low Limit game. I have read Zee's book over and over again, am usually the tightest or 2nd tightest player at the table, and am aggressive when I have a hand.

3441 hands
-2.17 BB's/100 (limits between 1/2-4/8, mainly 3/6)
VP$IP 16.4
from SB 22.5
PFR% 4.0
Flop agg 1.4
Turn agg 1.0
River agg 0.88
Won% when saw flop 27.5%
Won at Showdown 65%

I would appreciate ANY comments, a lot! First a few points from myself:

1. Yes this is only 3224 hands, but the variance is small, and I find myself losing money to blinds and busted hands so slowly and surely it feels like it's unavoidable. Every time I check my PT stats during play I lost another $10-20 (I 3-table). Scoops come so rarely that although they boost the stats up, it only lasts for a while, then the blinds and lost hands have destroyed the results again.

2. I think I could be too tight, at least I see many winning players at 20%+.. However, this shouldn't make me a LOSING player, right? I could be missing some marginally profitable situations, but this level of tightness should still be allright. After all didn't Ray Zee say something along the lines (in his book) that "you'll do fine when you're tightest player at the table" ..

3. The latest leak I noticed was that I was chasing low-only in pots that were too small. After all it's only 16 outs for only half a pot and you might get quartered or counterfeited. I've fixed this but it's not (yet) showing in the results.

4. Preflop raising.. Well, since I'm often the tightest player I tend to raise with the hands I play with (especially from position and/or when mostly "loose" players are in the hand). After all, I need to get the max value out of the good preflop hands.

5. Post flop. Something must be wrong here, but I don't know what.. Anyone? Well, I'm aggressive when I have a hand. I'm aware of the concepts like when to drive other players out from the pot with raises and cr's, and when to keep them calling to build a bigger pot. I don't draw to non nut hands in multiway pots that include good solid players. Against fish I try to drive out other players by check raising with 2 pair, for example. The biggest problem post flop is that I don't know what the problem is. If I knew, I could find measures to fix it.

6. Win rate and fine tuning. Lastly, I believe that Omaha/8 can be a very profitable game.. My game needs fine tuning, but I can't be VERY FAR from solid winning play.. After all, I am tight, follow Zee's advice and tend to study my game.. So what amazes me is that even if there is something wrong with my game and I am thus not crushing it, I believe I should at least be BARELY winning, not losing here. After all, there are usually 3-4 players at the table who see 40+% of the flops and draw to 5th best lows..

One more thing, I ENJOY this game /images/graemlins/smile.gif I'd like to win at it, too. Bankroll is not a problem, but I cannot accept these losing sessions for very long since I have other poker games that are profitable.. I've tried PLO8, too, and there the results are definitely positive, but I want to develop my limit game.

RickyG
03-23-2005, 03:37 PM
These numbers really dont mean anything to me without context. I would suggest you look for the biggest hands you have losts and post them here looking for comments on them (Note: I would recommend only one per post and converting them so that they are easy to read, this is more likely to get people to respond to you.) This way it'll be easier for people to point out flaws in your game.

Rico

e_fermat
03-23-2005, 03:38 PM
Let me qualify my comments by saying there are a lot more experienced players out there than me but one thing I do have is a pokertracker omaha database with 500,000 hands and I can tell you there are few players in the low limits who are winning at any significant rate with a VPIP of 16%. There are some but as you have probably seen, most winning players seem to be in the low to mid 20% range (I'm actually quite a bit higher at about 28%).

Rather than look for specific leaks, why not just take the plunge and open your game wide-open at 1-2 and see what happens. Anytime table VPIP average is 40%+ at a loose/passive table you can limp with a lot of cards as long as you're drawing to the nuts post-flop in at least one direction.

Try these as starting hands and see what happens (from playwinningpoker.com):

"A very general starting point for loose-ish games is: AAxx, A2xx, Ax suited, A3xx, four cards ten or bigger (except trips), KK with two decent cards. That's mostly it, but there are definite exceptions like AKsQs4."

I would definitely add a few others like 234X, 23XX (ds). After you get used to playing a lot of opening hands then you can start adjusting for table specific conditions and players.

mxyzptlk
03-23-2005, 04:03 PM
[ QUOTE ]

"A very general starting point for loose-ish games is: AAxx, A2xx, Ax suited, A3xx, four cards ten or bigger (except trips), KK with two decent cards. That's mostly it, but there are definite exceptions like AKsQs4."

I would definitely add a few others like 234X, 23XX (ds). After you get used to playing a lot of opening hands then you can start adjusting for table specific conditions and players.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is mostly good advice, but be careful with 23 in limit O8. You need an A on the flop.

3.4k is hardly enough hands to determine if you are a winning player. You definitely need to loosen up a little bit. Also, if you tried PLO8 and liked it, try playing that instead. The strategy is different (usually muck a naked nut low to a big bet HU, for example), but you can protect your hand a lot more, and after playing PLO8 for a while you will be looking for the "bet pot" button when going back to limit .

kylma
03-23-2005, 04:09 PM
Hey thanks for the good advice. I gotta believe it, I'm simply too tight. I will try to make it to around 20%'s or so.

The "problem" is that I do play all the hands below /images/graemlins/smile.gif
[ QUOTE ]

"A very general starting point for loose-ish games is: AAxx, A2xx, Ax suited, A3xx, four cards ten or bigger (except trips), KK with two decent cards. That's mostly it, but there are definite exceptions like AKsQs4."

I would definitely add a few others like 234X, 23XX (ds).

[/ QUOTE ]

Except I do muck A3xx and sometimes A2xx when xx is crap against raises (especially from solid players).. I want my hand to have scoop potential.. The addition to your stack is so tiny when you only take half a pot.

I think I need to look for more high hand opportunities with DECENT low cards to go with them.. Like Axs57. I dont usually play that, but give it two connected cards, and we have scooping material. I suppose I could "expand my starting hand horizon" by playing more stuff that can make nut flush and high straights..

e_fermat
03-23-2005, 05:20 PM
Honestly, from the tone of your posts I think you have a bit too much of a rock mentality and it may be difficult for you to loosen up sufficiently so that's why I suggested scrapping your old methodology and starting anew.

[ QUOTE ]
The "problem" is that I do play all the hands below

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


"A very general starting point for loose-ish games is: AAxx, A2xx, Ax suited, A3xx, four cards ten or bigger (except trips), KK with two decent cards. That's mostly it, but there are definite exceptions like AKsQs4."

I would definitely add a few others like 234X, 23XX (ds).


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Except I do muck A3xx and sometimes A2xx when xx is crap against raises (especially from solid players)..

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm quite confident that at any table with VPIP >40% you can play ALL of those hands listed above without regard to position and be a winning player. Sure there are some marginal situations where you'd be better off folding but those are a definite minority.

Anyhow, give us an update over your next 3400 hands so we'll see what happens. Good luck!

arcticfire
03-23-2005, 05:37 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Please, A short rant before I move to the actual business /images/graemlins/smile.gif I can't believe I keep on losing hour after hour, day after day, in this Omaha Hi Low Limit game. I have read Zee's book over and over again, am usually the tightest or 2nd tightest player at the table, and am aggressive when I have a hand.

3441 hands
-2.17 BB's/100 (limits between 1/2-4/8, mainly 3/6)
VP$IP 16.4
from SB 22.5
PFR% 4.0
Flop agg 1.4
Turn agg 1.0
River agg 0.88
Won% when saw flop 27.5%
Won at Showdown 65%

I would appreciate ANY comments, a lot! First a few points from myself:

1. Yes this is only 3224 hands, but the variance is small, and I find myself losing money to blinds and busted hands so slowly and surely it feels like it's unavoidable. Every time I check my PT stats during play I lost another $10-20 (I 3-table). Scoops come so rarely that although they boost the stats up, it only lasts for a while, then the blinds and lost hands have destroyed the results again.

2. I think I could be too tight, at least I see many winning players at 20%+.. However, this shouldn't make me a LOSING player, right? I could be missing some marginally profitable situations, but this level of tightness should still be allright. After all didn't Ray Zee say something along the lines (in his book) that "you'll do fine when you're tightest player at the table" ..

3. The latest leak I noticed was that I was chasing low-only in pots that were too small. After all it's only 16 outs for only half a pot and you might get quartered or counterfeited. I've fixed this but it's not (yet) showing in the results.

4. Preflop raising.. Well, since I'm often the tightest player I tend to raise with the hands I play with (especially from position and/or when mostly "loose" players are in the hand). After all, I need to get the max value out of the good preflop hands.

5. Post flop. Something must be wrong here, but I don't know what.. Anyone? Well, I'm aggressive when I have a hand. I'm aware of the concepts like when to drive other players out from the pot with raises and cr's, and when to keep them calling to build a bigger pot. I don't draw to non nut hands in multiway pots that include good solid players. Against fish I try to drive out other players by check raising with 2 pair, for example. The biggest problem post flop is that I don't know what the problem is. If I knew, I could find measures to fix it.

6. Win rate and fine tuning. Lastly, I believe that Omaha/8 can be a very profitable game.. My game needs fine tuning, but I can't be VERY FAR from solid winning play.. After all, I am tight, follow Zee's advice and tend to study my game.. So what amazes me is that even if there is something wrong with my game and I am thus not crushing it, I believe I should at least be BARELY winning, not losing here. After all, there are usually 3-4 players at the table who see 40+% of the flops and draw to 5th best lows..

One more thing, I ENJOY this game /images/graemlins/smile.gif I'd like to win at it, too. Bankroll is not a problem, but I cannot accept these losing sessions for very long since I have other poker games that are profitable.. I've tried PLO8, too, and there the results are definitely positive, but I want to develop my limit game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok I'll do the best I can with the small sample given. The only thing I can see that seems off stat wise is your agg numbers. They go backwards. Your really aggressive on the flop and then tuck tail and cower at the end of the hand.

What this would seem to me is that either your chasing the wrong hands so you lose confidence in their power later in the hand (like 2 pair on the flop), or your afraid of being quartered. You should be becoming more aggressive as the hand goes on because you should have either hit your draws or folded not limp along hoping your 2 pair or whatever holds up. A2xx is a great example of hands most people missplay. The 10 times you get quartered will still not hurt you as bad as the 1 time you don't and didn't raise/cap the pot. Often you'll still make money even getting quartered if you choose a nice loose table.

Thats just off the cuff , food for thought. Scoops are how you make your money true , but small split pots are how you keep it.

gergery
03-23-2005, 09:10 PM
There is still variation in O8. You could easily be playing fine getting bad luck.

I’d scale back from 3-tabling if you are not running well or feeling confident.

VPIP of 16% is definitely on the tight side in these low-limit games. There are three problems with this: 1) you are not playing in some moderately-marginally profitable situations, 2) for observant opponents, its relatively clear what your hand is ie. 80+% of the time you have A2, A3, so 3) you risk getting bluffed out on unfavorable flops, and 4) you will not get as much action on your favorable flops. That said, there are still enough non-observant opponents that you can be profitable at 16%, just not as profitable as otherwise.

Your % won when saw the flop is low. But your Won at SD is reasonable in total. So somewhere between the flop and showdown you are not winning enough. Also, your post-flop aggression #s look low for turn and river. I’ll guess that you are 1) not getting enough value on your good hands via raising, (ie. the times you win at showdown you don’t win enough), and 2) you’re not getting others to fold better hands or hands that are behind but would have outdrawn you (ie. not getting others to fold enough pre-showdown).

While your Won @ SD is reasonable in total, it is low for a VPIP of 16%. So you are either misjudging flops and going too far, or are getting unlucky with bad beats on later streets. What is your Went to Showdown %? – that may help answer it.

Another possibility is you are winning at showdown with half or quarter pots too often. What is your WinHigh, WinLow, WinScoop #s?

--Greg

kylma
03-23-2005, 10:15 PM
Gergery, good analysis, although I just finished a very long session so I don't feel like I can now self analyze the various options. I have some trouble post flop because on one hand I curse because I overestimated opponents hand and folded a winning hand but on the other hand I find myself with a crying call on the river to see my if my 2pr takes the high.. So I cannot find the balance easily. I just try to play the opponents,observe what they bet with, to help with those decisions.

Now I included the PLO8 stats here which seem a lot better.. For some reason I have trouble adjusting to the LIMIT game.. I feel that the hands that are "ok" in PL, are pretty good to play with, because when I do hit my hand, I can extract much more since the bet size is not as limited (same principle than in holdem, you can play somewhat looser aggressive than in limit, if you prefer to).. However, in limit these marginal hands seem to fall in value.. First, I can only get a couple of extra bets when I hit the hand. Second, those hands often lack redraws, and I find myself getting scooped on the river.

First column is limit, second column pot limit
I also included the additional stats

3441 hands - 6766
-2.17 BB's/100 (limits between 1/2-4/8, mainly 3/6), +13.3 PTBB's/100 (PL25-Pl200, mainly PL50& PL100)
VP$IP 16.4 - 21.0.. Notice the looser play in PL (still tight!)
from SB 22.5 - 26.5
PFR% 4.0 - 5.1
Flop agg 1.4 - 1.4
Turn agg 1.0 - 1.1
River agg 0.88 - 1.2
Notice how the aggression is more equally distributed on all streets in PL. Arcticfie commented how the limit aggression seems to go backwards.
Won% when saw flop 27.5% - 25.7%
Won at Showdown 65% - 64.6%

Went to SD 32.9 - 25.3%
Won HI 5.52 - 6.3%
Won LO 2.5 - 2.0%
Sccop 0.93 - 0.8%

I get a first impression comparing these stats that I play looser in PL but I also fold more easily when the hand is not a winning hand postflop.. In limit I could play the premium /preflop) hands a bit too far, although I'm continously controlling the post flop play. But I hope you guys could find something again here..

gergery
03-23-2005, 10:38 PM
Your Went to Showdown looks ok but on the low end of ok.

And your won high looks too low, but won low and won scoop look ok.

So I'd say maybe play some more hands where you have good chances for high -- either by raising out opponents, or some AKQJ type hands ---

You may be placing too much emphasis on low hands.

also, how do you play "4 cards higher than T" hands?

-g

kylma
03-24-2005, 03:38 AM
[ QUOTE ]


also, how do you play "4 cards higher than T" hands?

-g

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually limp preflop with almost any 4 cards . I would muck something like TTAJ rainbow. If I sense a threeway hand against two loose opponents developing I might raise with the best hands. I don't cold call raise(s) unless it's really a PREMIUM hi-only hand

Post flop I usually muck them when 2 low cards hit and I didn't hit a set.. If I hit a set I wanna see the 4th card for preferably 1-2 bets only.. Problems start again with 2 pairs.. kings up, aces up, stuff like that I find problematic .. I usually bet with them on the flop to get information but am ready to muck them

BradleyT
03-24-2005, 04:44 AM
You haven't even scratched the surface on starting hands in o/8. Not to mention even when you get a good hand it's often not a huge favorite to win most of the time.

Report back after 30,000 hands or so.

gergery
03-24-2005, 05:46 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


also, how do you play "4 cards higher than T" hands?

-g

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually limp preflop with almost any 4 cards . I would muck something like TTAJ rainbow. If I sense a threeway hand against two loose opponents developing I might raise with the best hands. I don't cold call raise(s) unless it's really a PREMIUM hi-only hand

Post flop I usually muck them when 2 low cards hit and I didn't hit a set.. If I hit a set I wanna see the 4th card for preferably 1-2 bets only.. Problems start again with 2 pairs.. kings up, aces up, stuff like that I find problematic .. I usually bet with them on the flop to get information but am ready to muck them

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds fine except I'd cold call raises somewhat often, depending on the opponent/position. These hands do well vs. A2xx hands.

Carl_William
03-24-2005, 04:41 PM
3.4k is hardly enough hands to determine if you are a winning player. A way to evaluate your play could be….

But 3.4 K hands is a good start.

Assuming you are a steady player, not prone to excessive tilt, then consider….

Assume an average session for you is about 170 hands; is so, then this would amount to about 20 sessions. Of if you consider 200 hands as an average session – then 3.4 K hands would be equivalent to 18 sessions.
I suggest you keep a running average of how you do in each group of your last 10 sessions (say groups of 10 sessions and about 200 hands per session). Then keep a running average of your last ten groups of ten sessions. If your running average per group of last ten groups (about 2000 hands) is usually about 50%(i.e., 5 wins in 10 sessions), then you are an average player, maybe just paying the table rent. If you average 6 wins in 10, then you are a slightly above average player. If you win 7.5 or more times per group of ten sessions, then you are a very good player. You want to keep this running average up to 60% better. If it starts to go down, then try to figure out why? Are you comfortable with the betting stakes? When you are a very good player, how much you win is dependent on many factors; some are game selection, how you feel, time of day on the Internet(certain times have more average players then usual) – things like this.

crazyweasel
03-25-2005, 01:22 AM
It's really very simple - Omaha requires much more experience in marginal situations than you realize. You're not gonna acquire that experience by jumping into multi-tabling and trying to grind out a win by just being tight. You're putting a cart before the horse. When you actually take the time to learn the game you'll figure out what's going on.

kylma
03-25-2005, 12:47 PM
Very nicely put, and I agree.
I simply *thought* I could go ahead and 3-table and simply play tight plus make money BECAUSE there are so many loose bad players at the Omaha tables. This was my bad, I need to play one table and study every hand more deeply, during and after the game.. Check and recheck the odds for the hands to see whether my bet call or fold was correct.

The only "problem" is the opportunity cost of NOT playing a game that are already very profitable, but that is not an Omaha related issue at all .. And I suppose learning Omaha can do good things for you GENERALLY as a poker player, too.

BradleyT
03-25-2005, 11:43 PM
The games aren't going to get "bad" anytime soon so there's no huge hurry.