What hand can I beat here? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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jedi

03-23-2005, 09:53 AM

I got called when I fired off a bullet on the flop, so I shut it down later. Bet the turn? Bet the river? Failing that, fold the river?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Jedi is CO with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, MP1 (Villian) calls, 2 folds, Jedi raises, 3 folds, MP1 (Villian) calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Villian checks, Jedi bets, Villian calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Villian checks, Jedi checks.

River: (3.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Villian bets, Jedi calls.

Final Pot: 5.75 BB

crunchy1

03-23-2005, 10:10 AM

This is similiar to a post I responded to yesterday.

Checking the turn really commits you to calling a bet on the river. You've given no read on Villian and it's very likely after you've shut down on the turn that he'll fire one off on the river to attempt to pick up the pot. He could have any number of hands in this spot ranging from the nuts down through smaller PP's than yours down to A-high. If you're going to check the turn you're doing it to induce a bluff on the river and you have to call it down.

That being said - I really think you should be firing again on the turn. You can easily fold to a raise but I think more often you'll pick up the pot right here. If you do get called a second time you'll likely be checked to again on the river and you can either bet for value or check behind (depending on your read of Villian). If Villian bets into you on the river - well, that sucks - and you're going to have to probably call w/o a read (although this would really look like a K who's scared of the river getting checked through).

PokerBob

03-23-2005, 10:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I got called when I fired off a bullet on the flop, so I shut it down later. Bet the turn? Bet the river? Failing that, fold the river?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Jedi is CO with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, MP1 (Villian) calls, 2 folds, Jedi raises, 3 folds, MP1 (Villian) calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Villian checks, Jedi bets, Villian calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Villian checks, Jedi checks.

River: (3.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Villian bets, Jedi calls.

Final Pot: 5.75 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet the turn.

einbert

03-23-2005, 10:52 AM

I think this is a fine board to induce a river bluff on.

Nice hand.

SeaEagle

03-23-2005, 11:25 AM

Standard way ahead/way behind play.

You have nothing to gain by betting the turn. He has no plausible draws and will most likely fold a hand you're beating.

If you're winning, you're only worried about an A on the river, so check and induce a bluff.

TripleH68

03-23-2005, 11:37 AM

I play this hand similarly quite often. I don't want to face a raise on the turn, especially from some yo-yo with an ace who just picked up a flush draw. Side benefit of calling the river is seeing what hands this guy is limping in with...

Fat Nicky

03-23-2005, 11:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a fine board to induce a river bluff on.

Nice hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you say this with confidence with no read on the villain.

Fat Nicky

03-23-2005, 11:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You have nothing to gain by betting the turn. He has no plausible draws and will most likely fold a hand you're beating.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is wrong, a lot of players will pay off the turn and river on a board like this with hands like 88 or A high.

meep_42

03-23-2005, 11:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have nothing to gain by betting the turn. He has no plausible draws and will most likely fold a hand you're beating.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is wrong, a lot of players will pay off the turn and river on a board like this with hands like 88 or A high.

[/ QUOTE ]

But I really really don't want to get c/r'd here.

-d

Fat Nicky

03-23-2005, 11:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have nothing to gain by betting the turn. He has no plausible draws and will most likely fold a hand you're beating.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is wrong, a lot of players will pay off the turn and river on a board like this with hands like 88 or A high.

[/ QUOTE ]

But I really really don't want to get c/r'd here.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

with the boatload of passive players on Party 2/4, why are we afraid of getting check/raised by a worse hand???

jedi

03-23-2005, 11:57 AM

Unfortunately this was my 1st orbit at the table so I didn't have any read on a player, but I pegged him as a "default" Party Poker 2/4 player. Typical loose SSH type player. Here's what I was thinking.

Can I fold to a turn check-raise? Recently, I've been paying off the turn check-raise and calling a river bet, which obviously costs me extra bets. I certainly thought I was in a way ahead/way behind scenario when he called the flop. If he doesn't have a King, then what else could he be calling with? TT? 88? 7x? That's why I opted to check the turn to induce a possible bluff on the river, or get to showdown cheaper if I were behind.

I'd love to see what everyone else thinks because I find myself in these spots quite a bit. Normally the King would scare me a bit, but 2 of them means it's less likely that he had a King. But when he calls me on a drawless board and a fairly small pot, I'm worried a bit.

Anyways, here are the results:
 Villian had 76 for the low boat.

Yads

03-23-2005, 12:39 PM

I'd play it either the same way or bet the turn and fold to a check raise.

somapopper

03-23-2005, 01:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is similiar to a post I responded to yesterday.

Checking the turn really commits you to calling a bet on the river. You've given no read on Villian and it's very likely after you've shut down on the turn that he'll fire one off on the river to attempt to pick up the pot. He could have any number of hands in this spot ranging from the nuts down through smaller PP's than yours down to A-high. If you're going to check the turn you're doing it to induce a bluff on the river and you have to call it down.

That being said - I really think you should be firing again on the turn. You can easily fold to a raise but I think more often you'll pick up the pot right here. If you do get called a second time you'll likely be checked to again on the river and you can either bet for value or check behind (depending on your read of Villian). If Villian bets into you on the river - well, that sucks - and you're going to have to probably call w/o a read (although this would really look like a K who's scared of the river getting checked through).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is right. Against an average player, you're going to take down the pot right here more often than you'll be checkraised by a worse hand. I think the worse hand part is important, because with either line we're out one BB to a K or a 7. If you can fold this everytime to a checkraise, and you don't think your opponent is too tricky, then I say go for the bet.

SeaEagle

03-23-2005, 01:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
with the boatload of passive players on Party 2/4, why are we afraid of getting check/raised by a worse hand???

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying you won't ever get C/Red by a worse hand? If that's the case, then go ahead and bet and fold to a C/R. Assuming you'll bet the river if called, you'll lose an extra bet to people who are calling down w/ a 7, but gain bets from everyone else.

If you're not going to fold to a C/R then you need get called twice as often as you're C/Red. In this situation there are few hands that you're beating that will call: 99,88, and maybe a funky A-rag if the player is really loose. I would have expected PF raises on AQ,AJ,JJ,TT so it's unlikely you're up against one of those hands.

I don't play Party 2/4, but against anything but the most passive calling stations, a bet on the turn is a -EV play.

MercTec

03-23-2005, 01:26 PM

I read the results so maybe I'm biased here but betting the turn still seems better. It's an easy fold to a raise and he's probably only C/Ring a K here. With a 7 he just calls again most likely...assuming he's loose passive. You can then check behind on the river since you have position. Costs the same no matter what you decide to do...but betting the turn gives you the best chance to win the pot IMO.