This hand made me ponder some things (20+2)

[wuwei]

BB seemed reasonable, hadn't done anything stupid to catch my eye so far.

Comments on all streets are appreciated. I couldn't decide on the river if I wanted to bet or not. The pot's already quite large due to my big turn raise. If I check behind and lose, I still have something to work with. If I check behind and win, I feel silly. Regardless, next time I plan to river a heart.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t775)
UTG+1 (t775)
MP1 (t765)
MP2 (t1755)
CO (t575)
Button (t1205)
SB (t1380)
BB (t770)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
Hero calls t30, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls t30, Button calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (t135) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t30</font>, Hero calls t30, CO calls t30, Button folds.

Turn: (t225) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t100</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, CO folds, BB calls t200.

River: (t825) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero...

[Xyeej]

I will limp up front if table is pretty passive. It's only the 2nd level, so hopefully you've kinda gauged the texture of the table.

Flop call is fine. You dont want to risk getting raised by leading and maybe faced with a push or large bet on the flop, even though all your outs seem clean. I always play a bit more careful on coordinated flops like these vs. unraised blinds. Waiting until the turn to get more involved never hurts.

I would raise the turn like so also and maybe even to 325-350. I am fairly content to get it all-in if faced with a push here. There is a fairly good chance aces are good and even though the BB led, he can easily have 65 or 87 for pair + OESD and wants to keep the momentum of hand going. 97/74 would flat call, but I think two pair would repop here because you already have 40% of your stacks in.

BB checks the river. He is just too much man for me and I deserve to bust if he checks 97/74 here. If this guy is able to c/r you on the river with the nuts then more power to him, but I think it's fairly out of the question. I would bet maybe 125 and call a push. If I win, congrats, but if I lose it is to the unlikely straight and props to the guy for outplaying me. After no reraise on turn, I dont think you will be shown two pair. I expect a midpair or even A7 to call the valuebet.

[Pepsquad]

It's probably too weak, but I'm checking the river. BB betting ~100 on the turn and flat-calling my ~200 raise is worrisome. Your river bet is not getting called by many hands that don't beat you here.
I'm okay with missing a value bet on the river here against weaker aces for the sake of keeping my last ~400.

Pep.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
If I check behind and win, I feel silly.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why?

This is (at least it seems to me) a clear-cut case of "you will only be called if beaten." If he's playing some garbage missed suited connector he won't pay you off. If he's playing anything that hit, you lose. Hero checks. Otherwise, I like the way you played it. Limp, call minbet with odds for nut-flush draw, semi-bluff raise with TP2K+flush draw, CHECK.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I check behind and win, I feel silly.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

It goes back to all the hands of limit I've played. Missing value bets on the river makes me sad. I have trouble not value betting a hand like TPGK in a NL setting. I need to work on my thought process here, and realize it's ok to check. Checking is a not a crime.

[ QUOTE ]
This is (at least it seems to me) a clear-cut case of "you will only be called if beaten." If he's playing some garbage missed suited connector he won't pay you off.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is just about right. I would qualify it a bit and say that against certain poor players you can find on any 20+2 table, it's worth betting. However, here I should go back to what I know about this player so far. I know he does not seem to suck. Thus, his turn call means he's either on a draw or that ace didn't exactly scare him. I don't think he has a monster here - if he did he'd have to bet the river. But against a seemingly decent player, the times he's gotten here with a weak ace should be far outweighed by the times he missed his draw or has me beat.

[microbet]

I know people don't always make sense, but it just doesn't make sense for you to be beat on this hand.

He flopped a straight and bet 30 on it? After than an Ace hits. He might think about check raising, because the Ace might have hit you, or he might have noticed that there are now two flush draws and bet a decent amount, but he bets 100? He's gonna wait until the river to try a check raise?

I think you have him. Maybe he as another A with a J,T or 7. Maybe he has 78 or something like that. Maybe 7s8s. If he has AK or A8 or even trips, I don't think he will reraise anyway. I bet about 150 because I think he will call with a losing hand.

[Xyeej]

Checking behind on the river here is just flat out weak. I truly think a valuebet will be called enough on the river when I am ahead to make this a profitable play, if not in EV terms but in terms of positioning myself to win.

This may be just entirely dependant and fitting to just my style of play though. When I am given those few extra chips, it really makes a difference in the texture of the rest of the SNG. I feel positioning myself to run over the table and be able to swing a large line is my style. I do not play a game of careful survival and ITM percentages. It is the frequency of 1sts that makes the difference. I'm willing to put the life of my tourney on the line if it enables me to position myself to dominate even if it involves taking the worst of it.

My opionions on certain lines, etc. are only that way because of my particular approach and nobody is ever completely alike in this aspect.

Anyways, I'm rambling again... /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[microbet]

I'm having a hard time minding my own business here.

I'm just going to say these three things:

1. You are broke.
2. You are borrowing money to gamble.
3. Even if one were to accept that you have a winning strategy in SNG's, you have to see that your strategy will give you high variance.

BTW, I do agree with the value bet on this hand.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
Checking behind on the river here is just flat out weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are overstating how bad missing a value bet is here, I think. Remember, value betting is read dependent. There's a lot of players that are so bad we should be value betting them mercilessly - they'll call with any piece of this board and play it just like my opponent did. Then there are the guys who do actually think a little bit during the hand. My bet screams I have an ace or better. Some players don't believe you when you try to tell them this, but a lot of them will. So you have to wonder what hand he called with on the turn.

I agree with your point about how valuable it is to get those extra chips when you can, but there should be some thought given to the specific opponent.

Also, there's the question of what happens when he does have you beat. If I check behind, I have 410 chips left. Not great, but with a little luck I can certainly work with it. If I bet a decent amount (150-200) and lose, my stack has been cut in half and is harder to work with. I'm not sure how useful this line of thought is, but it did cross my mind as I was pondering my river action.

[ilya]

Interesting hand.

This guy got a free flop in the BB, so he could really have anything. He makes a small bet on the flop and no one raises. So he thinks, ok, no one is very strong, maybe they have middle pair or two overcards or a flush draw. Then an Ace comes on the turn, and he has no reason to think anyone has an Ace from the preflop or flop action. Plus the Ace doesn't complete any draws. So he bets trying to represent the Ace and maybe take down the pot right there. When you raise, he realizes you probably have an Ace after all. So when he calls, I figure he's on a strong draw, maybe a 7 with a flush draw or a 7 and a pair. He doesn't want to put you all-in because you look committed and he figures he's behind you right now. I don't think he has you beat, he'd probably go all-in since, err, you look committed, and also because he might well realize that lots of cards might kill his action on the river.
The river either bricks him or completes his straight. Or, perhaps he flopped a straight/two pair after all. However, he's gotta figure the 2d doesn't look particularly scary to you. If he now has nothing, he would check since he thinks you'd call. If he made his hand, he might well check anyway thinking that you'll bet.

I think a small value bet is not a good play because you can't get away from a raise. Here's the thing. If he missed, you get nothing. If he has something like A7, he just calls. But if he has you beat, he check-raises all-in, and you're too committed to fold. So, if you bet about 150, you stand to win 150 when you have the best hand and lose 400 when you don't.

I guess betting that 150 is ok if you think he'll pay you off 3 times as often as he'll beat you after a check-raise. To me that seems unlikely. I think it's more likely that if you push, he pays you off more often than he beats you. So I prefer pushing to making a value bet. But I think it's close and checking seems fine to me as well.

[Slim Pickens]

I think it makes sense for the OP to be beat by A5, A6, and A8, plus garbage middle suited gappers people seem to love to play. That's my guess. AJ, AT, A9, or worse might pay you off. I don't really know how to balance the two, so I err on the weak side and check.

[microbet]

If he had any of those hands that beats you, he was ahead on the flop and didn't check/raise, he was ahead on the turn and didn't check raise - both times where there were draws out that could beat any hand he could possibly have - and then he's going to check/raise the river? He could surprise me, but I think he only might do that with 34 or 22.

[Xyeej]

Don't worry about anything. I'm always open to the views and opinions of others and I really do consider each one.

1. Yes, I am broke. Do you see why? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif
2. True.
3. Maybe I over-glorified a bit on my part. I am not a value-betting maniac at all times. Wuwei pointed out that valuebets are dependent on how well your reads are. My views stated earlier are definitely not a concrete guide for all situations. It is selective playing-like-a-maniac. I do not think it makes a noticeable difference in my variance, but it's all relative.

[microbet]

Hey, I know it's not about results, but what are the results?

[wuwei]

After thinking a little about the river, I decided to make a smallish bet. I wasn't too concerned about a c/r all in, because I couldn't fathom someone with a hand that strong not doing it on the turn or just leading the river. Can he really count on me to bet this for him?

I don't have the history here so I can't recall exactly how much my bet was, but it was 150-200. He called with A5 and my hand is no good.

I'm glad there was some good discussion here, as I know my thinking is a bit results oriented. After the hand, I concluded a couple things. First, as ilya mentioned he's in the BB which means we can't put him on a starting range of hands. I think I should proceed with more caution than usual based on this.

The other thing was I didn't think enough about my read. It wasn't a strong read, but I should feel more confident in my ability to read players early on based on how often they see the flop, how often they raise, how often they showdown. We're only in level 2, so my read can't be that strong - but it should mean something.

[microbet]

Yeah, I should have really weighted my guesses towards you losing the hand because the vast majority posted hands are losers.

I think the bet is still good. The best/only reason to not bet is fear of a check/raise and like you said, it didn't look like that was coming.

[Odogg]

I hate that you did not raise preflop. I like to establish myself early as someone who will raise 3 to 4 times the blind. I would have raised preflop to 90. This makes bad hands make decisions about staying in.

On the flop I am able to maintain my aggression with the nut flush draw and 2 overs. You raise preflop (hopefully) eliminates any straight draw. With that UTG I would assume it is checked to me where I make a pot sized bet. 9 times out 10 you take the pot right there.

I think aggression is very important and will set the tone early that you are going to command the table.

[Odogg]

I wonder if a raise preflop makes him fold???

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate that you did not raise preflop. I like to establish myself early as someone who will raise 3 to 4 times the blind. I would have raised preflop to 90. This makes bad hands make decisions about staying in.

[/ QUOTE ]
You better have supreme confidence in your ability to play this postflop if you feel you have to raise a strong, but not monster, hand from EP in Level 2. Not only are you building a bigger pot that might be tough to get away from, but you'll probably be smooth called preflop by a number of hands that beat yours, so you'll have no information about your opponents' hands. What happens if you get two callers and the flop comes AJ5? Is your pair of aces good? Wouldn't you like to know if one of your callers had AK? Rambling, but no preflop raise!

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder if a raise preflop makes him fold???

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably...

You can raise his preflop every time, that's fine with me. In levels 1 and 2, I'll mix up my play with this hand in EP. I would imagine I raise about 25% of the time and limp the rest. I'm comfortable with that. I'll mix it up based on table texture.

[Odogg]

I will assume then that your aggression factor in sag's is fairly low. If you are not raising preflop with AQs then basically you are limiting your raises to AKs, AA, KK, QQ. I surely hope you are not holding your breath on that.

If you only make those raises with premium hands then don't expect action later. Again my style is probably more aggressive than yours. 90 chip raise and a pot sized bet would not equal a loss in a sit and go even if I did have to get away from the hand.

So what has me slaughtered? AA, AK, KK, QQ. Anything below this is a coin flip. Any average player at these levels is going to reraise with these holdings.

If your style is to sneak into the money then wait for premium hands to raise with but I play these tourney's to win.

Aggression pays off big time. I would guess 8 out of 10 times I take the pot after the flop. 9 out of 10 if the flop is the same as in this example.

[Odogg]

Mixing it up is fine. But most sit and go's are not a game that can be played over a long haul. Most times it gets down to bingo when the blinds reach a ridiculous level.

No clue on averages but party plays 10 hands per level. So you get to see 50 hands before the blinds reach a level that is going to force action. I think I would take full advantage of every single raising opportunity I can.

[Slim Pickens]

You are ignoring position. I will raise AQs from LP over a few fishy limpers and fold it to a big opening raise. From UTG, you have no information about the rest of the table's starting hands. What do you do if minraised? You have to call, but now you've spent one fifth of your stack on seeing a flop with a drawing hand you have to play out of position against an opponent who surely has you beat the 2/3 of the time you miss the flop and probably a good fraction of the 1/3 of the time you do hit it. Seems like a whole lot of risk for 45 chips worth of blinds. No?

Slim

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
Most times it gets down to bingo when the blinds reach a ridiculous level.

[/ QUOTE ]
...and throwing disproportionately-large amounts of chips at a drawing hand out of position isn't bingo? Hell, that more like keno.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Preflop: I'd rather see a normal 3x-5x BB raise.

Flop: Raise after the minbet. Nobody will pay you off if your flush hits and all you've done is call.

Turn: I'd raise a bit more, maybe to 400.

River: After you turn raise is called, proceed with caution. Remember, your opponent got a free play so he can literally have any 2 cards and he's played this hand exactly like he would if he had flopped a big hand.

What hands you beat will call here? Maybe Ax, but there's an awful lot of Ax that has you beat. Any busted draw will fold. A weak 2 pair may not raise, but you still lose, and a flopped str8 will raise. If you bet 250, will you call a raise?

Betting this river is -CEV. You only have a pair. Check behind. (In a limit ring game, this is an easy value bet on the river).

[Voltron87]

PF good.

Flop good.

Raise to 400 on the turn. But you have the idea.

Bet 100-125 on the river.



After he calls my raise on the turn I'm a little worried but if he checks the river I am sure he does not have a hand.

[Raiser]

I've seen a couple of suggestions to raise to 400 on the turn. How can this be correct? If you are going to raise this much you might as well push, no?

[Odogg]

Showing aggression with a good hand is not bingo. Still having 700 chips after waiting for AA, KK, QQ for 5 rounds and the blinds at 300 - 600 is bingo.

[Odogg]

I have learned today that AA, KK, QQ are the only hands that should be raised UTG. AKs, AKo are also drawing hands and are not raised UTG??

In this case. AQs loses to A5. Maybe everyone should muck AQs UTG.

Do you also limp with JJ, TT, AKo? AKs?

[Slim Pickens]

If I have this hand on the button and no one raises, I raise AQs 3-4BB. If this is a limit game, I open-raise this hand from UTG. This is a no limit game in early position, and I believe that makes it a bad time to raise.

Here's another angle on why raising here is bad. Better hands won't fold and not many worse hands will call.

Slim

[Odogg]

I respect your opinion. We just have a different style of play. I prefer aggression.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
I have learned today that AA, KK, QQ are the only hands that should be raised UTG. AKs, AKo are also drawing hands and are not raised UTG??

In this case. AQs loses to A5. Maybe everyone should muck AQs UTG.

Do you also limp with JJ, TT, AKo? AKs?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would make the 3-4BB open-raise with AK and JJ and limp TT. AK is a drawing hand, albiet a strong one. If you don't improve, you have ace high.

Slim

[ilya]

The more I think about this hand the more I think you should check behind on the river. Couple reasons:

1, average Party player more likely to check a strong hand on river in an attempt to trap (Johnny Chan/Rounders Syndrome) than average 2+2er, who would probably just go ahead and "bet the river!"

2, important to consider that he's probably not interpreting your actions as though you're a "typical 2+2er" but as though you're just a typical Party player/himself. So just because you flat-called on the flop, doesn't mean he thinks you don't have a set or two pair. And when you raise on the turn, he's more likely to give you credit for 2-pair since he can see a typical Party player limping UTG with something like A8s or A6s, but figures that the same player would probably raise with a big Ace. So, when he calls your raise on the turn, he probably figures he's against a stronger range of hands than would "make sense." So, you're ahead on the river less often.


Re: raising vs. limping AQs preflop UTG.

It is 8-handed, so perhaps raising is reasonable. Some weaker Aces will probably call you at this level, so that's a plus. On the other hand, if more than 1 players calls you, you're gonna have to give up if you miss. With 7 players still to act, that scenario seems fairly likely. Also, getting re-raised is an unpleasant possibility. You don't want to put a third raise in with this hand, and calling doesn't sound fun either. I prefer limping in this position. I also limp JJ here.

Of course all of this changes when blinds go up and/or the number of players decreases.

[John Hurst]

If you think that the only hand that calls you is a hand that beats you, you are crazy. On Party at lower levels you will get called by Ace weak kicker ALOT. I think putting in a bet on the river is justified due to the stack sizes. Those extra 200-250 chips are very important. The board doesn't seem too scary. Value bet!