Mirage 20/40 : Running Bad, Playing...Bad?

[GuyOnTilt]

This month has been pretty ugly, and my play hasn't always been stellar either. Fortunately though, I was playing well during my most recent Vegas trip, despite my dropping 4 racks in the 20 game. I was 0fer with overpairs, so those hands stuck out in my mind and I was going over them mentally. Both of these were auto-pilot at the time they were played, but I figured I'd give them some thought.

Hand 1:

We're 9-handed and a little too loose, but otherwise decent UTG+2 opens. Horrible next to act cold-calls, two fold, semi-tight player calls. I'm next to act with Q /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif and 3-bet. All fold back to the PFR and everyone calls. 4 to the flop for 13.3 SB's.

Flop comes: 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Checked to me, I bet, PFR folds, other two call. 3 to the turn for 8.15 BB's.

Turn comes: 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Checked to me, I bet, horrible player calls, next player raises. Line?

Hand 2:

We're 7-handed. Same semi-tight player limps UTG, I raise with K /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Folded to a bit too loose CO who's deathly afraid of missing value bets postflop who cold-calls. BB calls, UTG calls. 4 to the flop for 8.3 SB's.

Flop comes: T /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Checked to me and I bet. CO raises, BB folds, UTG cold-calls. I 3-bet, CO 4-bets, UTG calls. CO does not appear to have a set. I 5-bet, both call. 3 to the turn for 11.65 BB's.

Turn comes: 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Checked to me and I bet, CO calls, UTG raises. Line?

Any input appreciated. I know live hands are harder to give input on because there are a lot of intangibles that I'll be taking into consideration, consciously or otherwise, but for the sake of these hands let's say I gave all relevant info.

GoT

[Tommy Angelo]

The second hand (KK), I think it would have been a good fold because of your five-bet on the flop and because the open-ender got there that has you drawing dead.

The first hand (QQ), much tougher, because there was no posturing on the flop. You haven't promised an overpair with dead certainty so it's a whole different deal. I think reraise is the worst choice.

Tommy

[Steve Giufre]

Hey GOT,

I think you need to call hand one down. There wasnt much flop action and I could see him having 1010 or JJ enough of the time for paying off to be correct, maybe even 56s.


Hand 2 looks like a tough fold to me. If he's reasonable, there is no way he is check raising that turn with a worse hand here. Even though the pot is huge, the only hand you have outs agaist is 67, and it seems unlikely he both limp with that hand UTG, and call two cold on the flop. I cant see him trying to make a move in a three way pot that was 5 bet on the flop. Looks like a fold.

[stankybank]

Hand 1: Given that you 3-bet PF and bet the flop and turn, indicating strength, I'm pretty sure the semi-tight player knows this and wouldn't raise you w/o a good hand. By that I mean a set (likely) or KK/AA (unlikely, though possible). I fold.

Hand 2: 89s seems possible for semi-tight player. Given the fact that many bets went in PF and capped flop, I highly suspect that you're beat against UTG but possibly ahead of CO. I put CO on overpair or AKs/AQs drawing to the nut flush.

[Lestat]

I'd much prefer to know how "thinking" these players are rather than how "tight" they are.

Hand 1- If the guy "thinks", he might have something like A9s, TT, or even JJ and realizes that even if he currently has the best hand, he can't likely shut anyone out with a raise or prevent them from seeing the turn. So he waits until a favarable turn card comes and pops it there. I kind of like this play, since he gains two double sized bets when he has the best of it, while being almost immune to a re-raise if you have an overpair. If a bad card comes he gets off it for one small bet. A pretty surgical way to play it if you ask me.

If he's NOT a thinking player, then he most likely flopped a set, since the 5 doesn't help a semi-tight player. And even if the 5 does help, then he just made a straight. So you can fold to a guy who isn't overly sophisticated, but you gotta call a guy who is. Of course, you also gotta call anyone who could have two pair here.

In hand 2- It sure looks like you're beat, but the pot is bigger. I can think up a few scenarios where a sophisticated player might check/raise with a pair + draw hoping you'd fold an over pair, because the pot's gotta look protected to you. Even if CO has him beat, your folding probably increases his pot equity. But this might be a stretch for most players.

Either way, two very difficult hands *especially* when you're running bad! Hang in there.

[AviD]

This is a great post and excellent thinking, but I am not sure how well it applies to the Mirage 20/40 game. Your average player in the Borgata (AC) 20/40 game isn't even capable of thinking that deeply.

I think Hand 1 is closer to calling down, but I think when a semi-tight player smooth calls the flop and CRs the whole field on the turn screams top pair is likely no good. I don't like folding and I don't like calling, but in the heat of the moment I'd call down.

Hand 2 seems like a fold, not an easy one given the pot size now but you are drawing thin to dead if you are behind...and there aren't many players in the 20 games I've sat that are creative enough to CR the turn trying to get an better hand to fold on that board, given the aggession throughout the hand to this point, and/or for the additional reasons you stated.

[lostinthought]

[ QUOTE ]


Hand 2:

CO does not appear to have a set. I 5-bet,

[/ QUOTE ]

Out of curiosity, how did you make this read? By him having 4 chips ready instead of 8?

Nice meeting you guys, btw.

[hogger]

I would call down hand # 1 -
hand # 2 I would fold but I guess it depends on how much of a "thinking" player he is. Does he know you make strong folds, does he know the CO is protecting his hand, etc?
Mike

[hogger]

Great post
Nice to have somone think there self through the hand!
Mike

[onegymrat]

Hi Guy,

Results please.

[GuyOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Guy,

Results please.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, haven't been on here in a few days. I described my opponent in both hands as "semi-tight" not necessarily just as an indicator of how loose he was, but more as a description of how he played and thought in general. That's how I refer to the type of players who play reasonable preflop, but overvalue offsuit broadways, undervalue position, etc. You probably know the type I'm talking about. They fancy themselves solid players, and they are better than most, but they just aren't very good at all.

Anyway, in the QQ hand I folded the turn. He will not have called preflop with two pair here. I'll be folding the best hand some of the time here, but I thought I was behind to a set more than often enough to make folding the best play. This play really doesn't have any effect on my image. I spent maybe two seconds thinking about it so it just looks like I mucked A high, so I won't need to readjust for the rest of my session.

In the KK hand, I insta-folded and the Button's cards almost beat mine to the muck. This one was a no brainer in my head at the time and I still think it is against these "semi-tight" kind of players, but against two other thinking non-loose players on a lower turn card, check-raising from his spot would not be a bad semi-bluff at all with something like the 98s open-ender, since both of us will each have a one pair hand the majority of the time and will fold quite often. He's not smart or tricky enough to realize this, but it's a good play to have in your arsenal if you're in his shoes. As for why I was pretty sure the Button didn't have a set... I don't know. He just didn't. After his flop raise, I couldn't have told you if he did or didn't, but after his 4-bet it was very obvious to me that he did not flop a set.

Okay, I'm kind of pissed off tonight because of a certain game that shall go unmentioned, so I'm heading out.

GoT