Identify a downswing

[95Aero]

Hello,

I've been reading in the forum posts here about downswings and that swings as large as 3-400BB are not totally uncommon. I am currently experiencing a 150BB (what I believe is a) downswing at 2/4.

I am wondering how to better figure out whether it is a downswing or if it is because I have change my play (unintentionally) - or if it's because I have made poor table selections.

I can see in my PT database that the past 5000 hands, my good starting hands have had poor percentage of winning and low Net$ (I think due to when I've won with them I only win the blinds when raising, and when I do get action - I've ended up getting hurt on turn and rivers against sets and stuff).

Should I just keep plugging away with my tight aggressive play and hope that this is a swing, or should I try to analyze if I've changed something?

Cheers,
95

[Ianco15]

A 150 bb downswing could be due to a lot of things. You could be just getting unlucky, but it is always a good idea to analyze your play and try to improve. Post some hands where you question your play and get some input from other people.

[STLantny]

I went through a lot of hands that were in the red on the general tabl in PT. And open up your PT database with ALL your 2/4 hands, go to position stats, and look at each position, and which hands are in the green and in the read. REALLY study the hands in your position stats, use the "play back hand" feature to see the hands better, and figure out where you are leaking. Also normal vpip/pfr etc stuff can be checked, but i find the position stats WAY more relevant to figure if youre playing bad or getting sucked out on. BE HONEST about it, though, when you are reviewing stuff.

[Zetack]

[ QUOTE ]

I am wondering how to better figure out whether it is a downswing or if it is because I have change my play (unintentionally) - or if it's because I have made poor table selections.



[/ QUOTE ]

A downswing is still called a downswing no matter what the cause...so whether its bad luck or bad play its still a downswing...that is, unless it becomes permanent and then its a slide...

[avalanche201]

I agree that a down swing is a ds no matter what the cause. But when this happens you need to be that much better. You have to figure out why it is happening. There is no doubt you didnt get crappy at poker over night. Many times its just the little things, that extra call, playing hands you shouldent, getting drawn out because you didnt bet enough. The last one is one i find myself falling into sometimes. I get down then i start betting less because i dont want to loose any more, and then i loose because i dont bet enough. Just some things to consider, gl.

[flair1239]

I am in the same boat over my first 3,300 hands at 5/10. I am down 8BB.

I would almost prefer being on a big downswing, very frustrating trading dollars back and forth for a week.

Anyway to answer your question, you should always be analysing your play. Since I have started playing a regular schedule, I have found it necessary to schedule review times. I do a daily 15-30min review, where I go over my losing hands (sometimes can't get though all of them), and a weekly (1) hour review, where I look at specific situations.

During a downslide or a flat streak I will take extra time. For instance this blip at 5/10 has several factors. 1) I was afraid of playing like a pussie, when I moved up from 3/6, so I was a little too loose my first couple sessions (paying off turn c/r, that did not need paying off).

2) I then overcorrected for a couple days and played weak-tight in a manner I have not done since my early .5/1 days.

3) The players are just generally better and I am learning to adjust too them.

4) The usual suck outs that make you want to whimper like a puppy the first night away from it's mother.

[pokerjunky]

Usually I identify a bad luck streak by what my W$SD rate is. If you play a normal TAG game it should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 52%-53% as long as your WSD rate is in the neighborhood of 30%-32%. Anything less than 50% W$SD would indicate bad luck since you are probably getting outdrawn more than usual. These two rates (W$SD and WSD)should be inversely proprtional to each other so if your WSD gets higher your W$SD would actually get lower. Hopefully I haven't confused you too much here.

[Perseus]

[ QUOTE ]


I would almost prefer being on a big downswing, very frustrating trading dollars back and forth for a week.



[/ QUOTE ]

No you wouldn't. Believe me. I am having a very very very shitty week, and I would give anything to be trading dollars

[ckessel]

Yea, I'm down about 100BB at 2/4 in the last week. About 1/2 of that is poor play, just calling send pair, top kicker too often or being too aggressive with top pair against someone whose shown they think they can beat top pair.

The other 1/2 though is just bad luck. My "went to showdown" is the same as always, my win at showdown in the last week is 32% instead of the usual 55%. Just not much you can do if you so rarely have the best hand.

All of this though after going up 200BB over the last 2 months, so I keep that in mind. Even with this downswing, I'm near 4BB/100 over the last 2 months.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I would almost prefer being on a big downswing, very frustrating trading dollars back and forth for a week.



[/ QUOTE ]

No you wouldn't. Believe me. I am having a very very very shitty week, and I would give anything to be trading dollars

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I know it was a dumb thing to say.

What I meant is on a violent down streak you can usually go back and look at your hands and see suckout after suckout. Granted there are always questionable hands, but usually the suckout percentage is high, so I really don't get too hard on myself during a abnormal downswing. Trading dollars though, you go back and look and see many hands where it is likely that you were outplayed... for me anyways.

[95Aero]

[ QUOTE ]
(paying off turn c/r, that did not need paying off).

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have AK and flop a king... and someone C/Rs me, is that a given call? I can't imagine folding that right? (If it's not a 3-flush or other extreme stuff on the table?)

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(paying off turn c/r, that did not need paying off).

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have AK and flop a king... and someone C/Rs me, is that a given call? I can't imagine folding that right? (If it's not a 3-flush or other extreme stuff on the table?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Not being a smart ass, but it depends. Starting a little bit at 2/4, then more at 3/6 and 5/10, I have seen what I consider an inordinant amount of c/r bluffs/semi-bluffs on the turn.

In the situation that you describe a possible line would be to 3-bet, and then consider checking behind on the river.

But that is why I am having trouble, so much of it is player dependent.

[95Aero]

Great, thanks for that. I have only played about 50K hands over all now (went up to 3/6 for a while, but my downswing forced me back to 2/4 where it has continued)... I will look at the W$SD figures when I get home as I haven't learned how to interpret them before, thanks for this info!

[95Aero]

Yes, my character judging skills have suffered lately as I see myself folding to C/R when I have a strong pair simply to see someone else taking the final pot with less... then I have that in the back of my mind next time along and I respond with aggression simply to find out I was beat all along /images/graemlins/smile.gif But that is the beauty of the game I supposed... if it was too easy it wouldn't be as profitable when u become good.

[PokerAce]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I would almost prefer being on a big downswing, very frustrating trading dollars back and forth for a week.



[/ QUOTE ]

No you wouldn't. Believe me. I am having a very very very shitty week, and I would give anything to be trading dollars

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I'm in the middle of a 200 BB downswing at 3/6. I'd MUCH rather be breakeven.

I was interested in determining what made rushes so profitable, and what made downswings so costly, so I did an study of three periods: one where I had a nice rush, one where I had an average profit and one where I had a massive downswing. The results were interesting. They're too long to post here, but you can read it on my blog (check my profile for link).

[Sasnak]

I'm not a great player but I was beating .50/1 for almost 3BB/100 the last 15k hands before moving to 1/2.

At 1/2 I went up and down countless times, went on a 175BB downswing which left me just over 200BB's down. After a few weeks of play I was still around 50BB's down then went on yet another slow slide and am back to being down 200BB's with 30k hands.

So I deposited at Party for the 20% reload bonus and went back to .50/1 to work out some issues, and am back to winning. Once I release the bonus I'll head back to 1/2 or take a few shots at 2/4. "Trading dollars" as you put it gets old really fast. Maybe a change of venue would help you too? Drop down a level, relax and play the way you should.

[95Aero]

My downstreak continued today it seems, played 1400 hands with the result minus 41BB... I see what you mean about the WSD% and W$SD.. it seems as though the percentages are OK, but the W$SD is below 50...

Please comment these figures if possible:
Screenshot (http://www.nickyf.com/temp/Poker20050324.png)

Thanks!

[RockPile]

dude you're only down 44 BB.. whats the big deal?

[95Aero]

It's not a 41BB over all downswing, closer to 200 now and I need to identify if I'm making some costly errors or if it's just bad luck

[college_boy]

You need a LOT more hands